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Coach’s Kid & Point Shaver
The “Coach’s Kid” is a player who most people would never expect to do well but ends up turning in a good game. If you put him in your lineup, people will ask: Why is that guy even in the lineup? He is terrible. Maybe he is the coach’s kid.
This week, the “Coach’s Kid” is RB Ahmad Bradshaw (NYG) @ DAL. Bradshaw had a respectable showing in week 1 (71 total yards on 15 touches), and now he is up against a DAL team that let the RBBC in TB run all over them (31 carries for 174 yards and 2 TDs). I think both RB Brandon Jacobs and Bradshaw will have solid games, as NYG will look to run the ball quite a bit against their division foe.
The “Point Shaver” is a good player who, for some unknown reason, fails to perform this week. Much like a stud basketball player mightmiss a few free throws at the end of a meaningless game to put some extra cash in his pocket.
This week, the “Point Shaver” is RB Matt Forte (CHI) vs. PIT. Do you see a trend here? Last week, I picked a RB who was playing against PIT. Basically, any RB that is playing against PIT is going to disappoint. And Forte disappointed last week against GB. So he will have a tough time against PIT this week.
How did I do last week? I suggested sitting RB Chris Johnson, who managed just 6.8 points. And I recommended starting RB Mike Bell, who put up 143 yards, but also lost a fumble, so he had 12.3 points. I call those both wins for me.
Yes… No… Maybe?
“Yes… No… Maybe?” is my version of the start-sit post. For the most part, I avoided the obvious (i.e. “Start Adrian Peterson and Drew Brees!”) and tried to focus on the fringe players. Beginning next week, I will recap how I did the previous week. So, eventually, when it turns out I am wrong all the time, you can pull a Costanza and just do the opposite.
And, just in case you are confused by the obvious nature of the post, here is a key:
Yes = Start these players. They have a high likelihood of performing well.
No = Sit these players. The risk is too high that they will struggle.
Maybe = Start these guys if you do not have better options. They could do well. Or they could fail.
Yes
QB Trent Edwards (BUF) vs. TB: Last week, QB Tony Romo put up a career-high in passing yards against TB. I doubt Edwards will replicate that effort, but he should have a good game. He has the weapons and TB is vulnerable.
RB Ray Rice (BAL) @ SD: OAK was able to push the SD DL around last week and managed to put up some rushing yards. BAL is a better running team, so Rice should get plenty of work. RB Willis McGahee and RB LeRon McClain could steal his TDs, but that is no reason not to use him. He should have around 100 total yards again.
RB Fred Jackson (BUF) vs. TB: Jackson did very well last week in place of suspended RB Marshawn Lynch, and he should have another solid outing against TB, who is not nearly as strong on DEF as most people think.
RB Clinton Portis (WAS) vs. STL: Portis is probably a must-start guy each week, but there are rumors that hsi touches are going to be limited and RB Ladell Betts is going to get more work. But RB Julius Jones went nuts on STL last week, so Portis should have a big day.
WR Louis Murphy (OAK) vs. KC: Yes, I know he has the fat caveman throwing him the ball. But there are just not many other options in OAK outside of TE Zach Miller (here’s a free one: Start Miller, too). Murphy was inches away from scoring 2 TDs last week and should have another good day against a KC pass DEF that struggles.
NO
QB Jay Cutler (CHI) vs. PIT: I doubt Cutler wil blow up and have 4 INTs again — although it would be awesome if he did — but I would consider other options this week. PIT is very good on DEF and could give him troubles, just like GB did with their version of the 3-4.
QB Matt Schaub (HOU) @ TEN: Schaub struggled last week against NYJ, and TEN is just as good or better than NYJ against the pass. TEN does not have a shutdown CB like NYJ has in CB Darrelle Revis, but I think they will contain Schaub enough to make him bench-worthy. Plus, I think his ankle is still bothering him.
RB LaDainian Tomlinson (SD) vs. BAL: LT is banked up with an ankle injury and is expected to be a game-time decision. Even if he does play, I have very little confidence that he will have a good day against the BAL DEF.
RB Steve Slaton (HOU) @ TEN: This was a tough one. Partly becuase I have him in one of my leagues. But also because, last year, he was the only RB to put up over 100 yards rushing on TEN. And he did it twice. So he is a lock to have a good game again, right? I wish. I think he will struggle. He is a borderline “no/maybe” though. Start him if you are really desperate.
WR Devin Hester (CHI) vs. PIT: But for one blown coverage last week in the GB game, Hester did nothing. I do not think PIT will blow coverage and let him get behind them, even without SS Troy Polomalu.
MAYBE
RB Pierre Thomas (NO) @ PHI: Thomas claims to be healthy and ready to go. If this is true, he should get enough work against PHI to make him worthy of a start. I think RB Mike Bell will continue to get some reps as they ease Thomas back in, but Thomas will be the man once he is 100%.
RB Darren Sproles (SD) vs. BAL: I am not sure why I hate Sproles. I was not high on him coming into this year. And now, even with LT hurt, I am still not all that high on him. He is very involved in the passing game, which is great. But he simply is not an every-down RB. However, with LT out, he makes a good start if you do not have other options. But I think BAL will do a better job of containing him than OAK did.
RB Kevin Smith (DET) vs. MIN: Smith could have an okay day, because he is involved in the passing game. And that is the only reason he is a “maybe” and not a “no”. MIN is just too stout against the run. But this has “trap game” written all over it… MIN has all the hype, and DET has not won a game in a long time. Who knows a good bookie? I just got paid…
RB Willie Parker (PIT) @ CHI: I am not a fan of FWP this year. He looked very marginal in week 1. And the PIT OL is not great. But CHI is without MLB Brian Urlacher, which makes him slightly more attractive.
WR Laurent Robinson (STL) @ WAS: Robinson had a solid week 1 and led the team in targets. And he had a couple red zone looks. STL is gonna be losing so they will have to pass. Which makes him a sneaky WR3 play this week if you need help.
Leave a comment and let me know what you think. Or, if you have other start-sit dilemmas, leave a comment and I will respond.
[Pre]Week 1 Watch List
Here are some guys to keep an eye on as the season starts:
QB Mark Sanchez (NYJ): Will he follow in the footsteps of QB Matt Ryan and post respectable numbers? Or will he struggle and sit on the waiver wire all year?
QB Matt Stafford (DET): Stafford was (not surprisingly) named the starter over QB Daunte Culpepper. Although the DET OL is not great, Stafford does have WR Calvin Johnson to throw the ball to. But I suspect he will also throw the ball to the other team quite a few times.
RB James Davis (CLE): Davis is available in many leagues, and could get a significant amount of touches in CLE. RB Jamal Lewis will likely start the season at RB, but I expect Davis to get some carries and eventually take over.
RB Willie Parker (PIT): Allegedly, he is the starter, the full-time RB, and the goal line back. Does any of this matter? It could. FWP is on the downside of his career, but he is not quite done yet. The PIT OL is suspect, but they do like to run the ball. If FWP can stay healthy, he is a great value.
RB Michael Bush (OAK): Bush is a very talented RB, but is stuck in a RBBC in OAK with RB Darren McFadden and RB Justin Fargas. If Bush could get more touches, he could be productive. But we will have to wait and see how they use him.
RB Jamaal Charles (KC): Many expect a (slight) resurgence of RB Larry Johnson this season. Which could happen. But given his past, I am not all that confident. Which means Charles could be in a position to get some extra touches. Especially if KC is losing and has to throw the ball often.
WR Chris Henry (CIN): He caught a TD in each preseason game. I know it is only preseason, but I am excited about Henry. Let’s see what he can do when it counts.
WR Marko Mitchell (WAS): I wrote about this super-duper-hella-deep sleeper a week or so ago. And he has not shaken that status yet. But he could end up being productive, if the other WRs in WAS cannot get the job done. Keep an eye on him as the season goes along.
TE Anthony Fasano (MIA): Fasano had a solid year in 2008, and now he is no longer sharing time with TE David Martin, who was placed on IR. He could increase his yardage totals, although I would be surprised if he matched or exceeded last year’s TD total.
TE Jermichael Finley (GB): Finley was a focal point of the GB offense in the preseason. But he is still listed as the backup behind TE Donald Lee. Either way, the guy is super-talented and creates mismatches when he is in the game. So I expect GB will find ways to get him involved.
Coach’s Kid and Point Shaver
Each week, I will write (new) a post called “Coach’s Kid and Point Shaver” that will highlight two players:
(1) The Coach’s Kid — This is a guy who is usually buried on the bench because he has no reason to be in your starting lineup. But this week, you decide to play him. And when he appears in your lineup, everyone will look around and ask, “What is he doing in the lineup? He must be the coach’s kid… What other explanation is there?”
(2) The Point Shaver — This is a player who should perform very well. He has the talent and the skills. And everyone expects him to showcase his talent. But for some unknown reason, he fails to meet expectations. Keep an eye out for shady characters lurking in the shadows. And try to figure out what you are going to tell your wife when she asks where all your money went.
So, here are my picks for Week 1.
Week 1 Coach’s Kid: A couple years ago, RB Mike Bell was in DEN. One RB in a line of many who had temporary success, only to quickly disappear into obscurity. But he resurfaced in NO. And with RB Pierre Thomas nursing a knee injury, Bell looks to get a bunch of touches. And, even better yet, he will get all these touches against DET. Who, by the way, is still terrible. Put Bell in your lineup, like a proud daddy would put his lanky, uncoordinated kid on the field.
Week 1 Point Shaver: I expect RB Chris Johnson to have a very big year in TEN. Unfortunately, he starts out his soon-to-be-big-year against PIT. Who, by the way, is still very good on defense. Johnson will get a bunch of touches, but could struggle to put up too many yards. And I expect the TEN-PIT matchup to be somewhat low-scoring. I have a hard time advising you to bench Johnson, but you should lower your expectations.
Week 1 Rankings
Week 1 rankings are posted. They are a little early. But I am leaving for vacation and wanted to make sure I got them posted.
Check them out.
Week 16: Start/Sit (Thursday Edition)
Sorry for the lack of posts recently. I was very busy preparing for an Arbitration (stupid “job”) and I am leaving tomorrow for the holidays, so needless to say, Fantasy Funk took a backseat… But I thought I would throw something together for the Thursday night game.
Colts @ Jaguars
START:
Peyton Manning: He is playing at a very high level.
Dominic Rhodes: Should fill in for Addai and play well against a suspect defense.
Reggie Wayne: Has not produced as expected lately, but he is a must-start.
Dallas Clark: Do not expect numbers like last week, but he is almost always worth a start.
Maurice Jones-Drew: Fred Taylor is out, so MJD will get all the work.
SIT:
Joseph Addai: He is still beat up and Rhodes is out-producing him. Officially, he is listed as “questionable”.
Marvin Harrison: If you are still playing at this point in the season, you should have better options. And he is listed on the injury report as “questionable”. UPDATE: Harrison did not make the trip to Jacksonville, so he is out.
Anthony Gonzalez: See Harrison, Marvin. UPDATE: With Harrison out, Gonzalez makes a better play. But I still do not expect much from him.
David Garrard: The Colts are pretty solid against the pass, despite last week. And Garrard does not have Calvin Johnson to throw to.
Fred Taylor: He is on IR. So at least I am guaranteed to get one right.
Dennis Northcutt: The Packers made him look good. The Colts will not allow him to repeat last week’s surprise performance. Although, if you are desperate, I suppose someone in Jacksonville has to catch the ball.
Week 14: Start
Ah, the playoffs. Some of you are likely starting Round 1 this week, and others are trying to win one last game (and hoping an assortment of other teams lose one last game) so you can sneak in. As you set your lineups, here are some players who have favorable matchups.
QB Kyle Orton (CHI) vs. JAX: Starting CB Mathis is out for the Jags. And they were not that great to begin with.
QB Gus Frerotte (MIN) @ DET: I bet I could throw for 2 TDs againt Detroit.
QB Peyton Manning (IND) vs. CIN: Last week was an anomaly. He will rebound.
QB Eli Manning (NYG) vs. PHI: I hate the mouth-breather, but he should put up decent numbers.
QB Drew Brees (NO) vs. ATL: This is a must-win for the Saints, and I doubt the Falcons will get as much pressure on Brees as the Bucs did last week.
QB Matt Ryan (ATL) @ NO: He is playing well, and the Saints can be beat through the air.
QB Aaron Rodgers (GB) vs. HOU: Cannot sit him against Houston. He will get his yards and TDs. Especially if Grant is beat up.
QB Chad Pennington (MIA) @ BUF: Remember, this game is being played in a dome in Toronto, not in the wind and cold of Buffalo. Pennington ate them up earlier in the year.
QB Brett Favre (NYJ) @ SF: Brett should play well in the warm(er) weather of the Bay.
QB Matt Cassel (NE) @ SEA: He could throw for 400 on them…
QB Tyler Thigpen (KC) @ DEN: Despite last week, Denver is awful on defense.
QB Jay Cutler (DEN) vs. KC: But so is Kansas City.
QB Kurt Warner (ARI) @ STL: Who wouldn’t love to see Warner torch his former team? I would. But I am biased. He is my fantasy QB.
QB Tony Romo (DAL) @ PIT: I know — the Steelers are tough on defense. But Romo should do well enough to warrant a start. It is a close call, though.
QB Joe Flacco (BAL) vs. WAS: Eh, why not?
RB Matt Forte (CHI) vs. JAX: Apparently he is not familiar with “the rookie wall” concept.
RB Maurice Jones-Drew (JAX) @ CHI: Yards might be low, but he should score. Or not. These things are hard to predict.
RB Adrian Peterson (MIN) @ DET: Well, hard to predict, unless it is AP against Detroit. I think he faced tougher competition in practice while at Oklahoma.
RB Kevin Smith (DET) vs. MIN: But only if the Williams boys’ suspension is upheld. Otherwise, avoid him like the plague. Or, perhaps I should say, avoid him like he plays for the Lions.
RB Brian Westbrook (PHI) @ NYG: I will never suggest sitting him again…
RB Brandon Jacobs (NYG) vs. PHI: Beast.
RB Chris Johnson (TEN) vs. CLE: They should run all over Cleveland.
RB Michael Turner (ATL) @ NO: Yardage might not be high, but always a threat to score.
RB Pierre Thomas (NO) vs. ATL: Deuce is out. And Bush is not 100% yet. So Thomas wins by default.
RB Steve Slaton (HOU) @ GB: Green Bay cannot stop the run. Period.
RB Thomas Jones (NYJ) @ SF: Man on fire.
RB Frank Gore (SF) vs. NYJ: Tough matchup, but he should do well enough.
RB Kevin Faulk (NE) @ SEA: Nothing other than a feeling.
RB Peyton Hillis (DEN) vs. KC: The white boy can play.
RB Larry Johnson (KC) @ DEN: I know. I am as surprised as you.
RB Tim Hightower (ARI) @ STL: I think he will get back on track this week.
RB Steven Jackson (STL) vs. ARI: He looked pretty good last week, and should be in line for more carries this week.
RB DeAngelo Williams (CAR) vs. TB: The kid is playing like they thought he would when they took him in the first round.
WR Matt Jones (JAX) @ CHI: He actually looks like a WR. Although he has an awful attitude (and haircut).
WR Bernard Berrian (MIN) @ DET: Everyone loves them some Lions.
WR Calvin Johnson (DET) vs. MIN: You can’t really sit him, but it’s tough to recommend any Lions.
WR DeSean Jackson (PHI) @ NYG: They are gonna have to throw if they wanna win.
WR Domenik Hixon (NYG) vs. PHI: Its the sexy-pick-of-the-week, so I don’t wanna be left out, right? He should do about as good as he did last week (70+ yards).
WR Braylon Edwards (CLE) @ TEN: Just kidding.
WR Roddy White (ATL) @ NO: You gotta start him. His name is Roddy. Roddy!
WR Lance Moore (NO) vs. ATL: I worry about a guy named Lance, but the kid can play.
WR Marques Colston (NO) vs. ATL: I think Colston will join in the fun again this week.
WR Andre Johnson (HOU) @ GB: Green Bay’s secondary is tough, but Johnson is possibly the best WR in the NFL.
WR Kevin Walter (HOU) @ GB: The Packers moved CB Charles Woodson to safety this week, meaning nickel CB Tramon Williams will be matched up against Walter most of the time. Which means you should start him.
WR Greg Jennings (GB) vs. HOU: Mr. Jennings is pretty good, too.
WR Donald Driver (GB) vs. HOU: Driver is old, but he just keeps playing well. I think he is worth a start this week.
WR Ted Ginn (MIA) @ BUF: He had 177 yards last time they played.
WR Lee Evans (BUF) vs. MIA: He has been up and down this year, but I think the former Badger will connect with QB JP Losman, who actually throws a pretty good deep ball.
WR Randy Moss (NE) @ SEA: He had the dropsies last week. I think he makes up for it this week. In a big way.
WR Brandon Marshall (DEN) vs. KC: Has not been the animal we expected after his first game, but he has been pretty good. And KC is not good on defense.
WR Eddie Royal (DEN) vs. KC: See Marshall, Brandon.
WR Dwayne Bowe (KC) @ DEN: The guy seems to put up 8 to 10 points, one way or another, every week. Well, except for last week. But Oakland has a very good pass defense. KC does not.
WR Mark Bradley (KC) @ DEN: See Bowe, Dwayne.
WR Larry Fitzgerald (ARI) @ STL: The Cardinals passing attack will get back on track. (Rhyme unintentional.)
WR Anquan Boldin (ARI) @ STL: See Fitzgerald, Larry.
WR Terrell Owens (DAL) @ PIT: Very tough matchup, but you cannot sit TO. He loves him some him. So he will get his.
WR Steve Smith (CAR) vs. TB: Almost always finds a way to make plays.
TE Dallas Clark (IND) vs. CIN: I just like his name.
TE Kevin Boss (NYG) vs. PHI: They might have to keep him in to help block, but I think he will get some catches.
TE Jeremy Shockey (NO) vs. ATL: His numbers have not been outrageous, but he has been putting up solid numbers lately.
TE Jason Witten (DAL) @ PIT: Tough matchup, but you gotta start him.
TE Chris Cooley (WAS) @ BAL: Another tough matchup, but again, you gotta start him.
TE Owen Daniels (HOU) @ GB: Start all your white TEs!
TE Tony Gonzalez (KC) @ DEN: Oh, yeah. And start Gonzo, too.
Week 14: Start/Sit (Thursday Edition)
Here are some start/sit suggestions for Thursday night’s matchup between San Diego and Oakland:
START:
QB Philip Rivers (SD): Oakland has a pretty good pass defense, but I think Rivers will play well enough to keep in the lineup.
RB LaDainian Tomlinson (SD): Sure, he is not his “usual” self this year, but he should put up respectable numbers against the Raiders.
RB Justin Fargas (OAK): He is the starter and has been playing well enough to warrant a start against a fairly weak Chargers defense.
WR Malcom Floyd (SD): Someone has to catch the ball, right?
TE Antonio Gates (SD): He is a must-start at TE.
TE Zach Miller (OAK): He has been playing well enough to warrant a start.
SIT:
QB Jamarcus Russell (OAK): I cannot even recommend him against the Charges pass defense…
RB Darren McFadden (OAK): He had one good game this year, but otherwise has been a pretty big disappointment.
WR Ashley Lelie (OAK): Seriously?
WR Vincent Jackson (SD): Zero catches last week, and he will likely be matched up against CB Nnamdi Asomugha for at least part of the game. It is unlikely that he will do much.
WR Chris Chambers (SD): I am not convinced he is 100% healthy, and his recent play supports that theory.
Fantasy Funk 