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Posts Tagged ‘devin hester’

I think…

September 21, 2009 Leave a comment

1. I think … I’m glad I had RB Chris Johnson on my team in one league. But I am not so glad I had to play against him in another.

2. I think … RB Cedric Benson is shaping up to be a very nice RB2. He is tied with RB Michael Turner for the most carries in the league through 2 weeks.

3. I think … the GB offense has disappointed thus far. The OL is the problem. And it could have a major affect on QB Aaron Rodgers, RB Ryan Grant, and WR Greg Jennings if it does not improve.

4. I think … NYJ CB Darrelle Revis is very good. He held WR Andre Johnson to 4 catches for 35 yards in week 1 and WR Randy Moss to 4 catches for 24 yards in week 2. I might consider benching your WRs against him.

5. I think … RB Darren Sproles is not a great RB. But, damn, he is great when he gets the ball in space. He is worth starting every week, especially while RB LaDainian Tomlinson is hurt.

6. I think … RB Felix Jones could benefit greatly if RB Marion Barber misses any time due to his quad injury. But watch for RB Tashard Choice to get some touches, too.

7. I think … As (I) expected, WR Devin Hester is not a real WR. However, its a little surprising to see rookie WR Jonny Knox has become the leading WR in Chicago.

8. I think … I love the NFL. QB Jay Cutler throws 4 INTs and CHI loses go GB in week 1. Then CHI beats PIT in week 2, and GB loses to CIN. So tough early on to tell who is for real.

9. I think … QB Matt Ryan is the real deal. And TE Tony Gonzalez is his new best friend.

10. I think … I was wrong about WR Dominic Hixon. It looks like WR Mario Manningham and WR Steve Smith are going to lead the way. One or both might even be available in your league.

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Yes… No… Maybe?

September 17, 2009 Leave a comment

“Yes… No… Maybe?” is my version of the start-sit post. For the most part, I avoided the obvious (i.e. “Start Adrian Peterson and Drew Brees!”) and tried to focus on the fringe players. Beginning next week, I will recap how I did the previous week. So, eventually, when it turns out I am wrong all the time, you can pull a Costanza and just do the opposite.

And, just in case you are confused by the obvious nature of the post, here is a key:

Yes = Start these players. They have a high likelihood of performing well.
No = Sit these players. The risk is too high that they will struggle.
Maybe = Start these guys if you do not have better options. They could do well. Or they could fail.

Yes

QB Trent Edwards (BUF) vs. TB: Last week, QB Tony Romo put up a career-high in passing yards against TB. I doubt Edwards will replicate that effort, but he should have a good game. He has the weapons and TB is vulnerable.

RB Ray Rice (BAL) @ SD: OAK was able to push the SD DL around last week and managed to put up some rushing yards. BAL is a better running team, so Rice should get plenty of work. RB Willis McGahee and RB LeRon McClain could steal his TDs, but that is no reason not to use him. He should have around 100 total yards again.

RB Fred Jackson (BUF) vs. TB: Jackson did very well last week in place of suspended RB Marshawn Lynch, and he should have another solid outing against TB, who is not nearly as strong on DEF as most people think.

RB Clinton Portis (WAS) vs. STL: Portis is probably a must-start guy each week, but there are rumors that hsi touches are going to be limited and RB Ladell Betts is going to get more work. But RB Julius Jones went nuts on STL last week, so Portis should have a big day.

WR Louis Murphy (OAK) vs. KC: Yes, I know he has the fat caveman throwing him the ball. But there are just not many other options in OAK outside of TE Zach Miller (here’s a free one: Start Miller, too). Murphy was inches away from scoring 2 TDs last week and should have another good day against a KC pass DEF that struggles.

NO

QB Jay Cutler (CHI) vs. PIT: I doubt Cutler wil blow up and have 4 INTs again — although it would be awesome if he did — but I would consider other options this week. PIT is very good on DEF and could give him troubles, just like GB did with their version of the 3-4.

QB Matt Schaub (HOU) @ TEN: Schaub struggled last week against NYJ, and TEN is just as good or better than NYJ against the pass. TEN does not have a shutdown CB like NYJ has in CB Darrelle Revis, but I think they will contain Schaub enough to make him bench-worthy. Plus, I think his ankle is still bothering him.

RB LaDainian Tomlinson (SD) vs. BAL: LT is banked up with an ankle injury and is expected to be a game-time decision. Even if he does play, I have very little confidence that he will have a good day against the BAL DEF.

RB Steve Slaton (HOU) @ TEN: This was a tough one. Partly becuase I have him in one of my leagues. But also because, last year, he was the only RB to put up over 100 yards rushing on TEN. And he did it twice. So he is a lock to have a good game again, right? I wish. I think he will struggle. He is a borderline “no/maybe” though. Start him if you are really desperate.

WR Devin Hester (CHI) vs. PIT: But for one blown coverage last week in the GB game, Hester did nothing. I do not think PIT will blow coverage and let him get behind them, even without SS Troy Polomalu.

MAYBE

RB Pierre Thomas (NO) @ PHI: Thomas claims to be healthy and ready to go. If this is true, he should get enough work against PHI to make him worthy of a start. I think RB Mike Bell will continue to get some reps as they ease Thomas back in, but Thomas will be the man once he is 100%.

RB Darren Sproles (SD) vs. BAL: I am not sure why I hate Sproles. I was not high on him coming into this year. And now, even with LT hurt, I am still not all that high on him. He is very involved in the passing game, which is great. But he simply is not an every-down RB. However, with LT out, he makes a good start if you do not have other options. But I think BAL will do a better job of containing him than OAK did.

RB Kevin Smith (DET) vs. MIN: Smith could have an okay day, because he is involved in the passing game. And that is the only reason he is a “maybe” and not a “no”. MIN is just too stout against the run. But this has “trap game” written all over it… MIN has all the hype, and DET has not won a game in a long time. Who knows a good bookie? I just got paid…

RB Willie Parker (PIT) @ CHI: I am not a fan of FWP this year. He looked very marginal in week 1. And the PIT OL is not great. But CHI is without MLB Brian Urlacher, which makes him slightly more attractive.

WR Laurent Robinson (STL) @ WAS: Robinson had a solid week 1 and led the team in targets. And he had a couple red zone looks. STL is gonna be losing so they will have to pass. Which makes him a sneaky WR3 play this week if you need help.

Leave a comment and let me know what you think. Or, if you have other start-sit dilemmas, leave a comment and I will respond.

I don’t wanna say “I told you so”, but…

September 2, 2009 Leave a comment

… I have 14 random predictions for the upcoming season, and when they come true, I will definitely say “I told you so” — even though I do not want to. I will request, however, that you kindly refrain from pointing out all of the times I am wrong. Because, well, that would just be rude.

Also, just in case you missed them, here are my previous 17 Crazy Predictions.

Onto the nonsense…

1. RB Steven Jackson will have the most yards from scrimmage in 2009.

2. WR Randy Moss will have at least 15 TDs.

3. QB Brent Farve will have at least 15 INTs.

4. WR Chaz Schilens will outscore WR Devin Hester.

5. WR Braylon Edwards will have at least 1,000 yards and 7 TDs.

6. WR Terrell Owens will wear out his welcome in BUF.

7. RB Leon Washington will score more fantasy points than RB Thomas Jones.

8. QB Mike Vick will have a better passer rating than the Mouthbreather (QB Eli Manning).

9. RB Felix Jones will average more than 5.0 YPC.

10. RB Ray Rice will score more fantasy points than

11. TE Jermichael Finley will score at least 6 TDs for GB.

12. TE Visanthe Shiacnoe will be a top-10 TE.

13. WR Larry Fitzgerald will not score more TDs than WR Anquan Boldin.

14. WR Chris Henry will score more fantasy points than WR Roy Williams.

Do Not Draft List

August 28, 2009 Leave a comment

So, I (finally) have my first draft this weekend. It is a live auction draft with a group of friends, so it should be fun. As I finalize my rankings and prepare for the draft, I like to make a “Do Not Draft List” with all the guys I am going to avoid at all costs. Most of these guys I want to avoid because I think they are too risky — i.e. they will either bust or get injured. Some of them, I simply do not like.

DO NOT DRAFT

QB Kurt Warner (ARI): Age, injury history, and, well, that’s pretty much it.

QB Eli Manning (NYG): Mouthbreather.

QB Brett Favre (MIN): Traitor.

QB Mike Vick (PHI): He will miss the first part of the season. And he is a backup QB. I still do not get whey people are drafting him.

QB Pat White (MIA): Again: Backup QB. 3rd string, even. Yes, I realize he will run the Wildcat. So, put him in at QB one week. And enjoy losing your game. You would be better off with QB Brady Quinn as your starting QB.

RB Brian Westbrook (PHI): Everyone is convinced that this is the year he falls apart. Which means he will probably blow up. So, I guess you can thank me.

RB Thomas Jones (NJY): Career year last year. Career-ending year this year?

RB Jamal Lewis (CLE): He’s had a nice run. But I think he is phased out this year in favor of RB James Davis.

RB Joseph Addai (IND): He could do well. Or he could get replaced by RB Donald Brown. I am not taking the risk.

RB Willie Parker (PIT): Oh, FWP, we’ve had some good times. But, seriously, now it’s time for you to leave.

RB Derrick Ward (TB): He is sharing the job with RB Earnest Graham and RB Cadillac Williams. And Ward will find that life is a lot tougher when not running behind the NYG OL.

RB Jonathan Stewart (CAR): He has to prove he can stay healthy before I add him to my roster.

WR Larry Fitzgerald (ARI): Call me silly or call me stupid, but I am a believer in the Madden Curse.

WR Terrell Owens (BUF): Toe injuries scare me. And so does the OL in BUF.

WR Michael Crabtree (SF): His hubris is unreal.

WR Brandon Marshall (DEN): Extremely talented. Extremely stupid.

WR Antonio Bryant (TB): No way he has back-to-back monster years. Especially not with those QBs.

WR Devin Hester (CHI): He is not a WR. I repeat: He is not a WR.

17 Crazy Predictions

August 18, 2009 Leave a comment

Here are 17 crazy (and/or not so crazy) predictions for the 2009 fantasy season that I — um, predict — will come true.

Why 17, you ask? Because that is all I could think of…

1. QB Philip Rivers will not be among the top 10 fantasy QBs at the end of the year.

2. QB Matt Ryan will be.

3. WR Larry Fitzgerald will miss at least one game. (I believe in the Madden Curse.)

4. QB Kurt Warner will miss at least one game. (I believe in reality.)

5. RB Adrian Peterson will score at least 15 total TDs.

6. RB DeAngelo Williams will not score more than 15 total TDs.

7. Rookie RB James Davis will take over for RB Jamal Lewis by week 10.

8. The top 3 fantasy QBs will be QB Drew Brees, QB Tom Brady, and QB Aaron Rodgers.

9. RB Michael Turner will score less than 10 points in at least 4 games.

10. TE Vernon Davis will be a top-10 fantasy TE.

11. WR Randy Moss will be a top-5 fantasy WR.

12. At least 5 rookies will score more points fantasy than WR Percy Harvin.

13. RB Ryan Grant will finish as a top-10 fantasy RB.

14. The top scoring fantasy WR will be WR Andre Johnson.

15. RB Ray Rice will be the highest scoring fantasy RB in BAL.

16. RB LaDainian Tomlinson will finish as a top-10 fantasy RB.

17. WR Devin Hester will not have more than 800 yards receiving.

Training Camp Position Battles

August 11, 2009 Leave a comment

All 32 NFL teams are now in training camp. Which means there are plenty of position battles that you should be aware of as your fantasy draft approaches. I wrote about some NFC and AFC position battles a couple weeks ago, but I thought it would be worthwhile to update them now that camps are in full-swing. I did not include much (read: any) discussion of the battles. I just listed them so you can be aware. I did, however, list them in the order I expect the final depth charts to reflect. Check back as training camps progress to get updates on the key camp battles that will affect your fantasy draft.

AFC North
BAL RB: Ray Rice v. Willis McGahee v. Le’Ron McClain
CIN QB: Carson Palmer v. His Elbow
CLE RB: Jamal Lewis v. James Davis v. Jerome Harrison
PIT RB: Willie Parker v. Rashard Mendenhall v. Mewelde Moore

AFC South
IND RB:
Joseph Addai v. Donald Brown
IND WR3: Pierre Garcon v. Austin Collie
JAX RB2: Chauncey Washington v. Rashad Jennings v. Greg Jones
TEN WR: Nate Washington v. Justin Gage

AFC East
MIA WR2: Greg Camarillo v. Devon Bess
NE RB: Fred Taylor v. Sammy Morris v. Kevin Faulk v. Laurence Maroney
NYJ RB: Thomas Jones v. Shonn Green v. Leon Washington
NYJ QB: Mark Sanchez v. Kellen Clemens

AFC West
DEN RB: Knowshon Moreno v. Correll Buckhalter v. Peyton Hillis v. Ryan Torain
KC RB: Larry Johnson v. Jamaal Charles v. Kolby Smith
SD WR2: Chris Chambers v. Malcolm Floyd v. Buster Davis
OAK RB: Darren McFadden v. Michael Bush v. Justin Fargas

NFC North
CHI WR1: Devin Hester v. Earl Bennet v. Rashied Davis
DET QB: Dante Culpeper v. Matthew Stafford
GB WR3: James Jones v. Jordy Nelson
GB TE: Jermichael Finley v. Donald Lee
MIN QB: Sage Rosenfels v. Tavaris Jackson
MIN WR2: Sidney Rice v. Percey Harvin

NFC South
NO WR2: Lance Moore v. Robert Meachem
NO WR3: Robert Meachem v. Devery Henderson
TB QB: Byron Leftwich v. Josh Freeman v. Luke McCown
TB RB: Earnest Graham v. Derrick Ward
TB WR2: Michael Clayton v. Maurice Stovall

NFC East
NYG RB2:
Ahmad Bradshaw v. Andre Brown v. Danny Ware
DAL WR2: Patrick Crayton v. Austin Miles v. Sam Hurd
NYG WR: Dominic Hixon v. Steve Smith v. Mario Manningham v. Hakeem Nicks v. Ramses Barden
NYG WR2: Steve Smith v. Mario Manningham v. Hakeem Nicks v. Ramses Barden
PHI WR2: Kevin Curtis v. Jeremy Maclin
WAS WR2: Devin Thomas v. Antwaan Randle-El v. Malcolm Kelley

NFC West
AR RB: Tim Hightower v. Beanie Wells
SF QB: Shaun Hill v. Alex Smith
STL WR2: Laurent Robinson v. Keenan Burton

More Sleepers

August 6, 2009 Leave a comment

Here is another discussion regarding potential sleepers. Some of these names appeared on my previous list of 2009 sleepers, but some of them are new. Either way, here are some guys to keep your eyes on during the preseason and during the later rounds of your fantasy draft.

QB Kyle Orton (DEN): Most of the focus has been on QB Jay Cutler as a result of the offseason swap of the two QBs, but I think Orton could benefit the most. Orton was actually playing fairly well last year before an ankle injury derailed his season. And now he is in Denver, with a capable stable of RBs, WR Brandon Marshall and WR Eddie Royal as his main targets on the outside, and a coach who loves to throw the ball. The system is set up very well for Orton, who does not have great arm strength, but is pretty accurate. He is going pretty late in most drafts, but should end up out-performing his draft position by quite a bit.

RB James Davis: He should be the top backup to RB Jamal Lewis in Cleveland. And Lewis has seemingly been on his last legs for a couple years. I would not be surprised to see Lewis give way to Davis as the season progresses. It is also worth noting that Davis broke all of Lewis’ high school rushing records.

RB Andre Brown (NYG): Most people assume that RB Ahmad Bradshaw will assume the role vacated by RB Derrick Ward and pile up the yards in 2009. However, I do not think Bradshaw is that type of back. In fact, I think Brown has a chance to step in a claim quite a few carries in the NYG’s RB rotation. Also remember that RB Brandon Jacobs has a tendency to suffer nagging injuries.

RB Jamaal Charles (KC): There are rumors abound that RB Larry Johnson will have to fight for his starting spot. Now, this may just be the new coaches forcing the formerly-disgruntled RB to work harder. But it also could be due to the fact that Johnson is apparently not a great fit for new HC Todd Haley’s pass-central offense. Charles is a bit undersized, but has great speed and could excel in a more open offense. Keep an eye on Johnson, though. He reportedly showed up at camp weighing 223 pounds, after checking in at over 230 pounds last year. He is said to be in the best shape of his career. Maybe Johnson is the real sleeper here?

RB Ray Rice (BAL): I love Ray Rice in 2009. He is the starting RB on a team that loves to run — they ran more than any other team in the NFL in 2008. Obviously, RB Willis McGahee and RB Le’Ron McClain will steal some carries, but I think Rice will be the main ball carrier, getting around 20 carries per game. He loses some value, because McClain will likely steal the goal line carries, but Rice has solid hands, so he should put up good yardage totals. Either way, he is usually going pretty late in most drafts, so he should easily out-perform his draft position.

WR Robert Meachem (NO): Meachem was very talented coming out of Tennessee, but simply was not able to stay healthy and/or pick up the system thus far. However, coming into the 2009 season, QB Drew Brees has been raving about this kid. Now, normally, this might be shrugged off as a QB talking up a fellow teammate. But when you consider that in 2007, Brees kept talking up a guy by the name of WR Marques Colston, and in 2008, Brees was high on previously unheard of WR Lance Moore, you start to think that maybe you should pay attention. How well Meachem does is anyone’s guess. But with praise like that from Mr. Brees, you best keep him on your radar.

WR Limas Sweed (PIT): He was expected to be a very high draft pick while at the University of Texas, but a wrist injury and some other issues pushed him down on draft day. And then he was nearly invisible as a rookie in Pittsburgh. But rumors out of camp are that Sweed is looking very good and should be in line for the 3rd WR spot behind WR Hines Ward and WR Santonio Holmes. Although there are not a ton of passing yards to go around in Pittsburgh, due to his size, Sweed could develop into a nice redzone target, if nothing else.

WR Dominic Hixon (NYG): A lot of the focus in the preseason has been on rookies WR Hakeem Nicks and WR Ramses Barden. However, I doubt either one of these guys will have an impact in 2009. Instead, the NYGs will make due with guys like Hixon, WR Steve Smith, and WR Mario Manningham. Smith is more of a possession WR, and Manningham is an unknown quantity after being injured for most of 2008. Hixon, however, showed us last year that he has some talent, and should step into the role of the #1 WR this year. The Giants run the ball a ton, so do not expect Fitzgerald-like numbers. But he is worth taking late in your draft, probably even after someone else takes Nicks.

WR Earl Bennett (CHI): Count me among the people who do not believe WR Devin Hester is a legitimate #1 WR in the NFL. Couple that with the lack of other WR options in Chicago, and all of a sudden second-year WR Earl Bennett becomes intriguing, especially considering that he and QB Jay Cutler used to be college teammates. Will we see a reprise of the Jay and Earl Show in Chicago?

WR Josh Morgan (SF): I still like Morgan. I liked him last year. And despite the presence of WR Michael Crabtree (assuming he actually plays in 2009), I still like him this year. Obviously, the QB situation in SF is less than desirable. But that does not mean Morgan will not put up decent numbers. Remember, he had a TD catch in every game he started in 08. Which shows that the guy can get open. He is worth taking late for depth and could turn into a solid WR3.

TE Kevin Boss (NYG): Boss had a solid rookie campaign and is reported to have developed a very good chemistry with QB Eli Manning so far in camp. Which is good, because I think Eli will be looking to his TE a lot in 2009. Although I do think Hixon is a sleeper at WR, I do not expect the Giants’ WRs as a group to be all that dangerous. Which means that Eli will have to look to his TE a lot.

Packers Defense: Usually I would not bother to even include a defense on a list like this. But I think the Packers are going to be much better on defense this year than in 2008. They have a very good secondary, an improved defensive line, and they are switching to the 3-4, which should help them get more pressure on the QB. Are they going to be as good as the Ravens or Steelers? No. But if you wait until the very end of your draft to get a defense (like I do), I think they are a great value.