RB Rankings: Updated!

Check out my updated RB Rankings:

My (new) Top 10:

1. Adrian Peterson
2. Matt Forte
3. Maurice Jones-Drew
4. Michael Turner
5. Steven Jackson
6. Chris Johnson
7. Steve Slaton
8. LaDainian Tomlinson
9. Frank Gore
10. DeAngelo Williams

Who is No. 1?

So… Your draft is probably right around the corner. And you are stressing, because you are not sure who you would take in the (unlikely) event that you get the number 1 overall pick. I have RB Adrian Peterson ranked number 1 overall. But you could make a case for some of the other top RBs. So, for your reading enjoyment, below is a debate (of sorts) over who should be the top pick in your 2009 fantasy draft.

Adrian Peterson (MIN): Some people are concerned about RB Michael Turner because he had 370-plus carries in 2008 (see below). However, those same people often neglect to mention that AP had 363 regular-season carries (plus another 20 in the playoffs). Do you really think those 7 carries saved AP from the so-called curse of 370? I don’t. But I also do not think there is too much cause for concern. Yes, AP is an injury risk. Yes, he does not get receiving yards. And yes, his QB situation is worrisome. But he is a stud. There is no one else in the NFL right now who is a better pure RB. He should challenge for the rushing title and hopefully finds the endzone a few more times in 2009.  Will he end up as the top-scoring fantasy RB in 2009? Nobody knows. But he is the safest pick at number 1.

Matt Forte (CHI): He surprised just about everyone as a rookie in 2008 as he finished 5th in scoring among RBs. Forte is an attractive option because he can run and catch, and there is nobody breathing down his neck for playing time. Plus, he is no longer a rookie, and now he has QB Jay Cutler in the backfield with him to keep defenses honest. I think Forte will continue to be a yardage-machine and should get into the endzone a few more times in 2009. But is he worth the number 1 overall pick? I certainly would not argue with anyone who took him number 1 overall. In fact, in my updated rankings, I have him ranked 2nd, behind AP.

Maurice Jones-Drew (JAX): Fantasy players everywhere have been waiting for RB Fred Taylor to leave so MJD could finally be the man in Jacksonville. He has an exciting skill set, and now that he is poised to get more touches, MJD is one of the most over-hyped players going into the 2009 season. But is it justified? He has never had more than 200 carries in a season. How many touches can we expect him to get in 2009? Will he be as effective in a full-time role? Should injuries be a concern? Also, even though Taylor is gone, do not forget about rookie RB Rashad Jennings and RB Chauncey Washington. The Jags would not have released Taylor if they were not confident in their other backups. Either way, he finished 10th among RBs in 2008, so you can assume he will improve on that in 2009. The question is, by how much? (Side note: Anyone else proud that I wrote that entire summary without using the word “diminutive”? Is there an unwritten rule somewhere that requires you to refer to him as “diminutive” at least once in every article? I get it. He’s short. And you know an infrequently-used word. Awesome. Get over it.)

Michael Turner (ATL): Some people are making a big deal out of the 376 regular-season carries that Turner had last year. But I am not buying into this theory, for a couple reasons: (1) Turner is young (he only had 228 carries coming into 2008); and (2) The Falcons should be a better team in 2009. However, I do not expect Tuner to match his 2008 numbers. The Falcons do want to decrease his workload, so look for RB Jerious Norwood to get more touches. And expect the Falcons to open up the offense a little as QB Matt Ryan gets more comfortable. So why do I have him ranked 4th when so many others have him 1st or 2nd? Reduced carries and a (much) tougher schedule. Last year, he put up over half his yards and TDs in 6 games against some of the worst rushing defenses in the NFL. This year, the Falcons replace those games with games against the NFC East and AFC East, most of whom have much stouter run defenses. Expect a decline in carries, yards, and TDs from Turner in 2009.

DeAngelo Williams (CAR): What a difference a year makes. At this time in 2008, most people were more worried about whether Williams was the top RB on his team, let alone in the league. The first-round selection of rookie RB Jonathan Stewart had everyone convinced that Williams had missed his opportunity to shine. And that appeared to be the case through the first half of the season. And then, something miraculous happened, and Williams put together one of the more impressive stretches in fantasy history, scoring 15 TDs in the second half of the season. Before you get too excited, though, remember that he only scored 3 TDs in the 8 games. So, which DeAngelo can we expect in 2009? I think it will be an average of the two. And I also think (a healthy) J-Stew will continue to get the ball, frustrating owners of both players who just want the Panthers to pick one RB. Could he pick up where he left off in 2008? Absolutely. But I would not want to bet the number 1 overall pick on it.

My Advice? Everyone has their opinion — and you should consider them all — but, if I had the top pick, I would have to decide betwen AP, Forte, and MJD. In the end, I think I would settle on AP, because he presents the least amount of risk. I would be very tempted to take Forte, though, given how well he performed as a rookie and the acquisition of Cutler. How well the Viking QBs perform and how the Bears use Cutler in the preseason could sway my opinion, though. In any event, the only player discussed above that I would avoid is Williams, because he presents too much of a risk. Inevitably, someone will get a great deal on Williams due to those risks, but with the top pick you have to play it safe.

The Favre Effect

Well, by now you have all heard the news: Brett Favre informed the Vikings yesterday that he plans to stay retired. As a life-long Packer fan, I must say, this news pleases me. I was not worried that Favre would lead the Vikings to a couple victories over my beloved Green and Gold. I simply did not want the deal with the media circus that was sure to surround him on a weely basis. Favre was a magical figure in my eyes while he was in Green Bay, but even I grew tired of the constant adulation and praise given to him by the media. And, as you can imagine, it only got worse when he was considering playing for the Viqueens.

Either way, this is somewhat surprising, since most people (including me) assumed he would come back and play in Minnesota in 2009. And I can only assume that many people built this assumption into their RB rankings, with RB Adrian Peterson sitting atop most lists (including mine).

In light of this news, there are some issues to address:

(1) Who will be the Vikings starting QB in 2009? It will likely be determined by a camp battle, but despite HC Brad Childress’ man-crush on QB Tavaris Jackson, I think the newly-acquired QB Sage Rosenfels will end up getting the nod. Rosenfels played adequately last year as a fill-in for the oft-injured QB Matt Schaub in Houston. Although he has an uncanny ability to throw a game-changing interception, he actually has a pretty sold set of skills. And I think he gives the Vikings the best chance to win.

(2) How will this impact RB Adrian Peterson? Without a guy like Favre under center, the Vikings will (once again) rely on the very-capable legs of AP. He had 360-plus carries in 2008 (including 20 more in the playoffs), so it is hard to believe he could be used more, but I do think the Vikings will be a run-first team, using AP and RB Chester Taylor to carry the team. I would have felt better about his fantasy value if Favre was handing him the ball, but AP can get it done no matter who is the QB. Assuming Rosenfels does win the job, I think teams will have to respect the pass enough to give him some room to run (and run and run and run).

(3) Where do the Viking WRs rank? Not very high, is the simplest answer. Honesty, even with the prospect of Favre joining the Vikings, I was not very high on any of the Viking WRs. In my rankings, I currently have WR Bernard Berrian at 29 (Tier 4), WR Sidney Rice at 62 (Tier 7), and WR Percy Harvin right behind him at 63 (Tier 7).  I do not think much changes, although I am definitely less excited about WR Sidney Rice as a potential sleeper without Favre hucking him balls. Regardless of who is QB, the only WR you should consider drafting for anything other than a sleeper is Berrian, and he is a borderline WR3, at best.

(4) Is Favre really going to stay retired this time? Childress apparently said the door is closed. But something tells me we have not heard the last of Lord Favre…

Snake Draft Strategies

Check out the Draft Guide for strategies for your traditional/snake draft and auction draft.

WR Rankings

Here are my Top 10 WRs for 2009:

1. Larry Fitzgerald (ARI)
2. Andre Johnson (HOU)
3. Randy Moss (NE)
4. Steve Smith (CAR)
5. Calvin Johnson (DET)
6. Greg Jennings (GB)
7. Reggie Wayne (IND)
8. Roddy White (ATL)
9. Terrell Owens (BUF)
10. Dwayne Bowe (KC)

Click here for the rest of the rankings.

See also:  QB Rankings |  RB Rankings

QB Rankings

Here are my top 10 QBs for 2009:

1. Drew Brees (NO)
2. Tom Brady (NE)
3. Peyton Manning (IND)
4. Aaron Rodgers (GB)
5. Phillip Rivers (SD)
6. Kurt Warner (ARI)
7. Tony Romo (DAL)
8. Matt Schaub (HOU)
9. Donovan McNabb (PHI)
10. Matt Cassel (KC)

Click here for the rest of the QB Rankings.

See also:  RB Rankings |  WR Rankings

RB Rankings

My pre-draft RB Rankings are posted.

Here are my Top 10 RBs for 2009:

1. Adrian Peterson (MIN)
2. Michael Turner (ATL)
3. Matt Forte (CHI)
4. Steven Jackson (STL)
5. Maurice Jones-Drew (JAX)
6. Chris Johnson (TEN)
7. Steve Slaton (HOU)
8. LaDainian Tomlinson (SD)
9. Frank Gore (SF)
10. DeAneglo Williams (CAR)

Click here for the rest of the RB Rankings.

See Also:  QB Rankings | WR Rankings

AFC Training Camp Position Battles

NFL training camps are right around the corner. Which means we will get our first (real) glimpse at how teams expect to set up their starting rosters. Although you can never take what happens in training camp as gospel, you can usually get a better idea of how some position battles are going to shake out. Here are some intriguing position battles (in no particular order) from the AFC that could have an impact on the fantasy landscape:

QB Brady Quinn v. QB Derek Anderson (CLE): Does anyone really care? Maybe. Or maybe not. But the resolution of one of the most over-hyped QB “controversies” in the history of the NFL will have an impact on guys like WR Braylon Edwards (aka “the Model”) and rookie WR Brian Robiske (one of my “sleepers“). I like Quinn. Not only for his boyish good looks, but also because I think he is a better QB. Anderson has the bigger arm. But he struggles on his short and intermediate routes. Which is where you make your money in the NFL. I think Quinn gets the nod, which is better for Robiske (who will be more of a possession WR) than Edwards (who needs to focus on catching the ball rather than the eye of modeling scouts).

RB Ray Rice v. RB Willis McGahee (BAL): I love me some Ray Rice. I loved him at Rutgers. I loved him coming out of Rutgers. And I loved him last year as a Raven when he got a chance to play. I think McGahee is done. But I also think the Ravens will continue to utilize McGahee and FB/RB Le’Ron McClain. Which means Rice will not get 25 carries a game. However, he is currently listed as the No. 1 RB on the Ravens depth chart, so if he can hold off McGahee during camp, he should be a solid RB2 option.

RB Larry Johnson v. RB Jamaal Charles (KC): Johnson used to be a stud. But he has been absolute garbage for the past two years. I think the Chiefs may have overworked him. But I am not going to point fingers. Either way, it is clear that he is not the elite RB he once was. And it is unclear how new HC Todd Haley will utilize these two runners. Most people assume he will pass the ball more, which definitely benefits Charles, who is the smaller and quicker of the two. But Johnson is not completely spent, so if he can come in healthy (and hungry), he could do some damage. Another name to keep in mind is RB Kolby Smith. He could see some carries, as well.

RB Sammy Morris v. RB Fred Taylor v. RB Laurence Maroney (NE): It is really hard to say what the Patriots will do. Former OC Josh McDaniels is now the HC in Denver, but that does not mean the Pats will not employ the same RBBC approach they have been so well known (read: hated) for over the past few years. I think Taylor will get a chance to be the main guy (whether that means 10 carries a game or 20 is hard to say, though), because he still has some life left in those legs. Plus, Morris is marginal and Maroney is a bust (injury prone, no vision, and he avoids contact). The main issue is that training camp and the preseason games might not really give us an indication of what will actually happen during the year. Because HC Bill Belichick apparently hates fantasy football.

RB Knowshon Moreno v. RB LaMont Jordon v. RB Correll Buckhalter v. RB Ryan Torain (DEN): It will be very interesting to see how this battle shakes out. I give Moreno the early edge, simply because he is probably the most talented and he is a first round pick (even though he is currently listed as 3rd on the depth chart). But we all know how HC Josh McDaniels liked to do things in NE — Well, actually we have no idea what he was doing. Which was why it was so frustrating. I could easily see a RBBC system that utilizes them all. But if Moreno flashes some real talent, it will be hard to keep him off the field. And, as always, Ryan Torain is my super-slepper… I love you Ryan! Seriously, though, look for Moreno and Buckhalter to share the load, with Jordan getting the goal line carries, while Torain is busy rehabbing his knee and staying hungry.

RB Joseph Addai v. RB Donald Brown (IND): Addai was a huge disappointment last year. He should come back this year healthy, but the Colts did not draft Brown in the first round to sit him on the bench. Brown played at UConn, so you can question the competition level he played against. But he is a very smart kid and gained a ton of yards. So I can see him stepping right in and having an impact. It all depends on whether Addai returns to form.

RB Justin Fargas v. RB Michael Bush (OAK): Maybe I am the only one who thinks this camp battle is intriguing. I have been a big fan of Bush since he came out of Louiseville. And I think he has finally recovered from his broken leg and is ready to be a legit NFL RB. Fargas is serviceable, but I think Bush has a much higher upside. And I list this battle here because I am convinced that RB Darren McFadden will not be able to carry the full load, either due to ineffectiveness or injury. So watch to see who his backup is, because they should see some carries as the year goes on.

RB Thomas Jones v. The Jets v. RB Shonn Green (NYJ): If Thomas Jones does hold out, that should open the door for rookie Shonn Green, who has a boom-or-bust quality to him. Even if Jones does not hold out, he is getting old, and could fall apart at any time (as all RBs his age tend to do). RB Leon Washington will be in the mix, as well, but he is more of a change-of-pace RB. It will be Jones or Green (or some combination thereof) that is the main guy. And if Jones holds out, keep an eye on Green.

Check out the NFC Training Camp position battles.

NFC Training Camp Position Battles

NFL training camps are right around the corner. Which means we will get our first (real) glimpse at how teams expect to set up their starting rosters. Although you can never take what happens in training camp as gospel, you can usually get a better idea of how some position battles are going to shake out. Here are some intriguing position battles (in no particular order) from the NFC that could have an impact on the fantasy landscape:

RB Tim Hightower v. RB Beanie Wells (ARI): Hightower was largely ineffective last year, gaining under 3 yards per carry. But he did notch 10 TDs. So he was not entirely useless. As I have said before, I am not a huge Beanie Wells fan. But the Cardinals have a very high-powered offense. If he can become the goal line back — which is questionable, given Hightower’s performance last year — he would be attractive. He also needs to show that he can catch the ball out of the backfield. But watch to see how the Cardinals use these two during the preseason.

RB Derrick Ward v. RB Earnest Graham (TB): People have been assuming that Ward is just going to take over the starting job now that he is in Tampa. But I think Graham will still be heavily involved. I suspect Ward will likely end up being the starter on Day 1, but do not expect him to carry the full load.

RB Brian Westbrook v. RB LeSean McCoy (PHI): This is really a position battle. Mostly, it will be interesting to watch McCoy during the preseason to see how well he performs. Westbrook had ankle surgery in June, and although the Eagles say he is fine, he will likely miss most if not all of training camp. Which means McCoy will get a lot of reps. If he looks good, his workload could increase. And, when Westbrook inevitably misses time due to injuries, his value could skyrocket.

RB DeAngelo Williams v. RB Jonathan Stewart (CAR): Again, I am not sure that this is really a position battle, but the fantasy value of both RBs will be heavily determined by how much each is used. I have a feeling that it will be very unpredictable and will change from week-to-week. Which, unfortunately, reduces the value for both. Based on age/experience/production, I suspect Williams will be the starter. But, if Stewart can stay healthy, I think he is the better RB (despite how well Williams played down the stretch last year).

RB Julius Jones v. ? (SEA): Okay, so maybe I am reaching here. But there just are not that many intriguing position battles in the NFC this year. But it will be interesting to see what happens in Seattle. They were absolutely awful last year. But QB Matt Hasselbeck should be healthy, new-arrival WR TJ Houshmandzadeh, and potentially-healthy WR Deion Branch should provide a boost to the offense. And OC Greg Knapp’s run-blocking scheme actually fits Jones quite well. But he will give way to TD-vulture TJ Duckett around the goal line. Assuming he can hold off second-year (undersized) RB Justin Forsett, Jones should be a solid RB3 option that could even be a RB2 if Seattle can put things together on offense.

WR Miles Austin v. WR Sam Hurd (DAL): Now that WR Terrell Owens has taken his home-wrecking show to Buffalo, there is a spot open as the Cowboys’ No. 2 WR that could produce a useful fantasy WR. WR Roy Williams will be the No. 1, unless something completely unexpected happens, but the No. 2 spot seems wide open. However, you have to remember that TE Jason Witten and QB Tony Romo are cosmically connected, so the No. 2 WR will end up being the 3rd option.

WR Anquan Boldin v. The Cardinals (ARI): Boldin still wants a new contract or to be traded. And the Cardinals do not seem interested in giving him either. However, I am confident that Boldin will show up for camp and play hard, regardless of his contract situation, just like he did (for most of) last season. However, you should pay attention to how this plays out, because his fantasy value is obviously heavily tied to whether he stays or goes.

Check out the AFC Training Camp position battles.

“Get Off My Lawn”

Inevitably, there are guys who are ranked highly before the draft who are all hype. Accordingly, here is a list of guys who I think are very overrated. I am not necessarily saying these guys will be terrible. Some of them will actually be very good. But I think they are overrated. Meaning it is highly probable that someone in your league will spend too much on them or draft them too high. And I have provided you with the names of some people who will likely produce about the same stats but have less hype.

QB Matt Ryan (ATL): The kid played well last year. He gave hope to the previously-hopeless Atlanta fans. But, if you look closely, his stats were pretty marginal. He threw for 3400 yards and 16 TDs, making him the 15th-ranked fantasy QB. Which means he would not even have been a weekly starter in a standard 12-team league. I think he will be better than that this year. But he will be on the fringe of being a weekly starter. And many experts have him ranked in the top-10 (ahead of guys like QB Matt Cassel and QB Donovan McNabb). Comparable Player:

QB Jay Cutler (CHI): Actually, many experts have him ranked about where I have him: As the 11th or 12th QB. But I had to include him on my list because I simply hate him. He is a mouth-breather with a bad attitude. And now he plays for the Bears. Who have no WRs. Cutler was great when he was throwing to WR Brandon Marshall, WR Eddie Royal, and TE Tony Scheffler. But he cannot replicate those numbers with guys like WR Devin Hester, WR Rashied Davis, and TE Greg Olsen. He will be a starter in most leagues, but do not expect him to post big numbers each week.

RB DeAngelo Williams (CAR): I have seen DeAngelo go very high in some mock drafts. And I simply do not understand why. Yes, I realize he was flat-out amazing in the second half of 2008. But he was very average in the first half. I just do not expect him to pick up where he left off. Beyond that, RB Jonathan Stewart is (allegedly) healthy and ready to carry more of the load. The Panthers do love to run the ball. But they also love to split carries — Even DeShaun Foster used to get a decent amount of touches. Bottom line: Anyone who expects Williams to get close to his from 2008 will be disappointed.

RB Maurice Jones-Drew (JAX): I know, I know. By putting both Williams and MJD on this list, it seems like I am just being a contrarian. But hear me out. Everyone just assumes that the Jags are going to give MJD 300 carries in 2009 because they gave him a huge contract and RB Fred Taylor is gone. But I disagree. MJD will continue to split carries with second-year RB Chauncey Washington and/or rookie RB Rashad Jennings (both of whom you have probably never heard of, but they are better than you think). However, MJD is a very effective goal line RB and a great receiver out of the backfield. So he will get his touches. But I do not consider him a top-3 player this year.

UPDATE (07/30/09): It should be noted that recently, I — ahem — moved MJD up my RB rankings to the, um, Top 3. So, I suppose you can disregard that last sentence. Initially, I was not that excited about MJD. But the more I look at the other guys in the Top 5, the more I like him. Maybe its the beer talking. But (for now) I like him at the top of the draft. I would even consider taking him first overall.

RB Darren McFadden (OAK): I am simply not a big fan of McFadden. I know the Raiders like to run the ball. And Al Davis just loves guys like McFadden. But the reality is, he is not a great RB. His legs are too skinny. The only guys who can run upright like he does are RB Adrian Peterson and Eric Dickerson. Sorry, but McFadden is not either one of those guys. Plus, QB Jamarcus Russell is entering bust territory. Which does not help his cause. Beyond that, I think RB Michael Bush is a threat to steal most of the goal line carries, if not some other carries.

WR Antonio Bryant (TB): Bryant has the talent, but I am not sure if he will produce the same numbers as last year. One issue is the QB situation in Tampa. Basically, they are just not that good. And I have a feeling they will have more than one starter during the year. Which is never good for a WR. I think Bryant will have a decent season, but he will not approach last year’s totals.

WR Chad Ochocinco (CIN): Is this guy serious? He has become a caricature of himself, it seems. He has talent, no doubt. And he has QB Carson Palmer back this year. Which will obviously help. I just think this guy is way too distracted to perform at a high level. It would not surprise me, however, if he did come back and play well. I just think the risk is too high. Plus, I think WR Chris Henry is primed to blow up. Which will provide Palmer with another (less dramatic) target.

WR Devin Hester (CHI): Hester is still learning the WR position. Which is not a good thing. He is ultra-quick and super-fast. But those two qualities do not a receiver make. He will get 50 or 60 catches, and probably catch a few bombs from QB Jay Cutler for touchdowns. But he will also have a few games where he registers zero catches and zero yards. Because you have to get open to get passes thrown your way.