Archive

Archive for the ‘Buy / Sell’ Category

Week 12: Buy / Sell

November 19, 2008 Leave a comment

Alright. Most trade deadlines have likely passed. But here is one last edition of “Buy / Sell” for anyone who can still make moves. Since most cannot, I will make it short and sweet.

BUY:

QB Tony Romo (DAL): He is finally back, but had a poor outing. I think it will take him a game or two to adjust to his pinkie splint, but overall, he will be fine. Try to buy low now.

RB Steve Slaton (HOU): He has a very, very easy schedule to end the season. He had a huge game last week, so it might not be an easy task to pry him away from his owner. But suggest that Ahman Green is going to continue to vulture his TDs (which is a real threat) and see if that lowers the asking price.

RB Ryan Grant (GB): He has been playing well lately against some pretty tough defenses. The Packers are committed to the run, and Grant looks primed to go on a stretch of good games like he did at the end of last year. Do not give up too much for him, since he has some tough matchups, but he will definitely do better over the last few weeks than he did over the first.

WR Reggie Wayne (IND): Wayne had another down game (by his standards) last week, but QB Peyton Manning is clearly back, and the Colts have a very friendly schedule down the stretch. See if you can make a move for Wayne now. You will be happy you did.

SELL:

RB Michael Turner (ATL): You know how I feel about him — he only plays well against poor defenses. He has scored 3 TDs in his last two weeks, which has saved him for fantasy purposes, but his rushing totals are not very good. Last week against Denver — who has one of the worst run defenses in the league — he only managed 81 yards on 25 carries. And he plays against Minnesota in week 16, which is likely your championship weekend.



Week 11: Buy / Sell

November 12, 2008 Leave a comment

It is week 11. Which means that trade deadlines are coming up very soon (or may have already passed). Friday is the trade deadline in one of my leagues, and next Friday is the deadline in the other. With this in mind, here are some players that I would try to “buy low” and/or “sell high” on before the deadline hits.

BUY

RB Marion Barber (DAL): I mentioned him last week, but I wanted to reiterate my point: You will not get Barber for nothing, but his value is the lowest it is going to be all season right now. So if you want him on your team (and I should think you would), now is the time to make a move for him. I think he will quickly return to form once QB Tony Romo returns. And with RB Felix Jones still nursing a hamstring injury, you do not have to worry about anyone stealing his carries.

RB Steve Slaton (HOU): Slaton had one of his worst games of the year last week. Yes, it was against Baltimore. But the Texans also tried to rest him because they are worried about him getting worn down. Although this is a legitimate concern for a rookie RB (particularly one of his stature), I think he will remain productive over the remainder of the season. Although he faces Tennessee in week 15 (playoffs), he has easy matchups against Indy, Cleveland, Jacksonville, Green Bay, and Oakland (week 16 — likely championship game) down the stretch.

WR Roy Williams (DAL): I think Williams will do pretty well when QB Tony Romo returns. I am not expecting him to put up WR1 numbers, but he should be a very good WR3 or even a decent WR2 going forward. And since he has done nothing since landing with the Cowboys, you might be able to get him cheaply. There is a risk, since we have no idea how the Cowboys will use him — or even how the Cowboys will play with Romo back — but the upside is high enough that I think it is a worthwhile risk.

SELL

RB Maurice Jones-Drew (JAX): I was not high on him coming into this year, and he has not been very consistent. He had a monster game last week (predictably — it was the Lions), but he will struggle for the most part for the rest of the year. He plays Tennessee, Minnesota, and Chicago in the coming weeks, but also has easy matchups against Houston, Green Bay, and Indianapolis. Even with these teams on the schedule, I would try to move him, because his value is about as high as it is going to get right now.

RB Michael Turner (ATL): You knew you would see him here. If you have read this site before, you know I am not a fan of Turner. He had a good game last week (due to a TD), but had very average stats otherwise (27 carries but only 96 yards). The Falcons are playing well, so I am not as bullish on moving Turner as I was early in the year, but I still think you would be best served to trade him. Keep in mind, though, that he plays Denver this week. If your trade deadline is next week, hold onto him until after the Denver game. He should have a big day. But that will likely be his last big game of the year. And given his ranking among fantasy RBs, you should be able to get something pretty good for him.

RB LenDale White (TEN): Yes, White has scored 11 TDs this year, and has scored at least one TD in every game but two. However, he does not get many yards (averaging less than 50 yards per game), and teams are starting to stack up against the run and force the Titans (and QB Kerry Collins) to beat them through the air. I think White will continue to get quite a few TDs, but I would try to move him for someone who gets more yards and is more consistent. White has scored quite a few fantasy points this year, so he should have good value as trade bait.

Week 10: Buy / Sell

November 5, 2008 Leave a comment

Another weekly installment of Buy / Sell…

BUY: Here are some players who I think are undervalued right now, meaning I believe they will produce at a level above their current output over the remainder of the season. If you can, make a move to trade for these players. In the case of the bigger names, try to take advantage of the frustrations of their current owners, but realize that you cannot get them with a complete low-ball offer. For the lesser-known players, see if you can get a deal on them, but realize that their owners probably want a premium, given the potential they each present. As with most fantasy trades, you just have to work a deal so the other manager feels like they are getting the better deal, and offer players that help their team out.

RB Marion Barber (DAL): Barber is still a top-5 fantasy RB, but his numbers have been way down lately. Most people probably realize that his production will bounce back once QB Tony Romo returns, but you might be able to get a deal on him now. Do not expect to get him for nothing, but I think Barber will end up either #1 or #2 in points among fantasy RBs, so if you can get him now at a value that is anything less than that, I think you would be getting a deal. Many fantasy players are easily frustrated when their studs fail to produce, so see if you can take advantage of his recent lack of product and the confusion in Dallas.

RB Tim Hightower (ARI): Looking back, I wish I had recommended making a move for him when I learned that the Cardinals might be phasing out RB Edgerrin James, but I had no idea they would phase him out this quickly. I loved Hightower coming into the NFL draft this year, and am not surprised that he is playing well. He had (by far) his best game of the season in week 9, so his value his high right now. But I think he will perform very well over the rest of the season. The Cardinals have a very powerful offense and he will get tons of chances to score.

WR Randy Moss (NE): As I have said before, Moss will not return to his 2007 form this year. But he can still be a very productive WR. If you forget about his name and what he did last year, and just consider his stats, he is still playing fairly well. In my league, he is the 18th highest scoring fantasy WR, making him a pretty good WR2 on most teams. Although he does have two stinker games (2.6 points and 4.5 points), he is averaging 10.7 points over the past 5 weeks. However, his owners wanted the best WR1 in fantasy, so you might be able take advantage of their disappointment.

WR Terrell Owens (DAL): See Barber, Marion.

WR Reggie Wayne (IND): After starting out very hot, Wayne has cooled off significantly, failing to score more than 8.5 points for the past three weeks. However, after his game against Pittsburgh this week, he faces some very user-friendly defenses down the stretch. Now is an ideal time to try and trade for him. I think he will return to his early-season form after next week. Get him now.

WR Roy Williams (DAL): I am still not sure what to think of Roy Williams as a Cowboy, but I am pretty confident that he will do much better than he has so far once QB Tony Romo returns. I would not want to give up too much for him, but if you can afford to, you might want to take a gamble on him. He is a very good WR, and should be much more comfortable in the offense after the bye week.

SELL: Here are some guys who I think are overvalued right now, meaning I believe they will not continue to perform at their current level for the rest of the season. If you can, try to sell high on these guys. Hopefully you can find someone in your league who believes they will continue at their current pace. For some of these guys (if not all of them), you will likely have to give up more than you are receiving — at least in perceived (current) value. But just be aware that you are getting a better value in the long-term. Obviously there are risks associated with trading your good players. But no one ever won a fantasy championship without either taking risks or just being very lucky. And, unfortunately, most of us are not that lucky.

RB Michael Turner (ATL): Okay. I have been over this before. But I really do think you should try to move Turner if you have him. And now is the perfect time, because he had a good game last week. But realize that he played well against an Oakland defense that is ranked 30th against the run. Turner only plays well against bad defenses. He has only scored more than 5.8 fantasy points against Detroit (31st against the run), Kansas City (32nd), Green Bay (27th), and Oakland (30th). And looking forward, other than Denver (26th) in week 11, Turner plays New Orleans (18th), Carolina (14th), San Diego (16th), New Orleans (18th), Tampa Bay (13th), and Minnesota (2nd). (He also plays against St. Louis (29th), but that is in week 17, and most fantasy championships are in week 16.) The average rank of the defense Turner plays is 15th. And for a comparison, against Tampa Bay (13th), he scored 4.8 points; against Carolina (14th), he scored 5.5 points. He might have one more big game (against Denver), but otherwise, I do not expect him to score more than 10 points again this year. Trade him now. If I had Turner on my team, I would be willing to give him up for a guy like RB Chris Johnson or RB Marion Barber (see comments above). I might even consider taking a risk and moving him for a guy like RB Tim Hightower (see comments above) and a WR2, if you can make it happen.  Turner has played very well this year (on paper), so use this to your advantage and trade him now for someone who will out-perform him for the rest of the year.

WR Braylon Edwards (CLE): It is a long shot, but you might be able to find some people out there who are riding on the QB Brady Quinn bandwagon and think Edwards is going to turn it around now that Quinn is at QB. But it was not Anderson’s fault that Edwards was dropping so many passes. See if you can convince another owner that it is, though, and move Edwards. He could have a good game this week against Denver, who is awful on defense, but overall the Browns face a rough schedule down the stretch. This may be your best chance to get something for Edwards, who has been a huge disappointment this year.

WR Calvin Johnson (DET): Oddly enough, I almost listed CJ in the “BUY” section of this post, because his value has taken a hit recently with the QB issues in Detroit. But then I thought some more about it, and decided that you should probably try to move him, if you can. QB Daunte Culpepper will likely be taking over in Detroit this week, but he has been out of football since last year, and did not play all that well when he had the chance. Although a small part of me thinks that he might turn into the Culpepper of old and take us back to the days of Culpepper-Moss, the realistic side of me thinks that he will likely struggle, mostly because Detroit is just a bad team. Johnson’s value is not all that high right now, due to the obvious nature of the problems in Detroit, but he is a big name and has good stats, so you can probably move him. In one of my leagues, someone just traded RB Steve Slaton straight up for Johnson. I think that is a fair trade for both teams.

Week 9: Buy / Sell

October 29, 2008 1 comment

With trade deadlines coming up fairly soon, now is a good time to make some moves to bolster your roster for a playoff run. Below are two lists: (1) A list of players who I would try to “buy low” and (2) a list of players I would try to “sell high”.

BUY:

QB Tony Romo (DAL): Romo (finger) is expected to be back in week 11, but given the current state of the Cowboys, there is no guarantee that he will return to his pre-injury form — or at least that is what you want his current owner to believe. Look, even with the team struggling, he is still Tony Romo, and he has guys like TO, Barber, Roy Williams, and Jason Witten on offense to help him out. Do not get fooled by how poorly QB Brad Johnson is playing. Romo will put up pretty good numbers when he returns. I would see if you can prey on a desperate owner who is struggling with Romo on the bench. You will not get him for nothing, but now is probably the only time anyone would be willing to part with him.

RB Tim Hightower (ARI): There are rumors swirling around Arizona that RB Edgerrin James might be on his way to the bench. Thus far, Hightower has been nothing more than a short-yardage back who gets a few TDs. But if James is benched, he could be very productive in the high-scoring Cardinals offense. Keep an eye on the James situation, and if Hightower starts to get more carries, try to make a move for him. Or you could make a move for him now by offering a little more than he is (currently) worth, if you are not risk-averse.

WR Randy Moss (NE): Although I recently said that Moss was “hot”, I also think that you could probably get a pretty good deal on him. Most Moss owners are very frustrated, because they expected 2000 yards and 25 TDs from Moss this year. You probably cannot get him for nothing, but I bet you can get a pretty good value. And he has a fairly favorable schedule down the stretch.

WR Reggie Wayne (IND): As I said in my “Hot & Cold” post, Wayne started the season very strong but has struggled lately, failing to score more than 3 points in his last two games. However, Wayne is an excellent WR, and I am confident that he will rebound. I would not expect him to be the top-5 WR that many thought he would be coming into 2008, but he should be a viable WR1 for the rest of the year. Try to make a move for him now while his value is low.

TE Jason Witten (DAL): Until last week, Witten was the top-scoring fantasy TE. But without QB Tony Romo, Witten has struggled to match his previous performances. And now he is dealing with a fractured rib that may or may not keep him from playing. You might want to take a risk and see if you can prey on a desperate owner who is concerned about his injury status (and lack of recent production), but be aware that you may be without him (and his performance) for a few weeks until he is healthy and/or Romo returns. I think it is worth the gamble, given how well he played at the beginning of the year.

SELL:

RB Pierre Thomas (NO): Thomas might even be available in your league. Which would be great. One of my favorite things do to is to pick up a FA or waiver acquisition and then trade him for something more valuable. Thomas has very little value right now, but if RB Deuce McAllister misses any time as a result of being suspended by the NFL, Thomas could be in line for quite a few carries. If nothing else, you might be able to sell him high to a McAllister owner as an insurance policy.

RB Michael Turner (ATL): The window may have closed on this one, but as I have said many times before, I simply do not beleive Turner is good enough to perform well against tougher defenses. And he has proven me right so far. He is still ranked among the top-scoring fantasy RBs, though, so you should be able to move him. But keep in mind that his best days (even on paper) are behind him, so you probably cannot get a great value for him. However, he does play Oakland this week, and the Raiders allow 144 rushing yards per game. So you might want to try and move him after this weekend. His only other favorable matchup is against Denver in week 11.

Week 7: Buy / Sell

October 15, 2008 2 comments

BUY:

QB Tony Romo (DAL): Most fantasy owners are unlikely to part with Romo, who is one of the better fantasy QBs this year. But some fantasy players get desperate when their stars get injured. It is unlikely you will get a great deal on Romo, but if you are in a league with someone who cannot afford to wait four weeks until he is healthy, you might be able to make a move for him and stash him on your bench.

RB Ryan Grant (GB): As I have said, Ryan Grant keeps letting me down. But that means that he keeps letting all his owners down. And they might be fed up with him by now. I would not give up too much for him, but it might be worth the gamble if you can get a deal on him. Rodgers continues to play well, and I have to think that Green Bay will eventually figure out how to use Grant more effectively. Remember: He did miss nearly all of training camp after holding out and injuring his hamstring.

RB Thomas Jones (NYJ): Jones had a huge game last week, so now may not be the best time. But I think he will continue to perform well as the season goes on. Favre is still learning the Jets offense, and the Jets are still learning how to use Brett Favre. Once they are all on the same page, I think the Jets offense will start clicking. And Jones should get plenty of opportunities.

RB Adrian Peterson (MIN): Peterson has not lived up to expectations this year, and you might be able to take advantage of this fact. He has performed well against some weaker defenses (GB, IND, DET), but has struggled against some better ones (TEN, CAR). As with Romo, you are probably not going to get a steal. But he does have some easy games down the stretch (HOU, GB, JAX, DET), and I have to think that Childress will use the upcoming bye week to figure out how to get AP more involved.

SELL:

RB Michael Turner (ATL): I said it last week and I will say it again: You should trade Michael Turner before his value is too low. As I predicted, Turner struggled against the Bears, gaining only 54 yards on 25 carries. More importantly, perhaps, is the fact that both QB Matt Ryan and WR Roddy White performed well. I expect Turner to continue to struggle against all but the bottom-tier of NFL defenses. If you can move him now for someone like Chris Johnson (TEN), Ronnie Brown (MIA), or Steve Slaton (HOU) — or maybe Adrian Peterson (MIN)? — I would do it.

WR Roy Williams (DAL): I think Roy Williams will do better in Dallas than he did in Detroit. And that is probably what most fantasy players think. Which is why now is the perfect time to trade him. With TO, Witten, Barber, and Felix Jones in Dallas, there simply are not enough balls to go around. I think Roy Williams will have a few big games, as teams focus on stopping TO, but he will not be as good as many expect. If I owned Roy Williams, I woudl see if I could capitalize on his perceived jump in value immediately following his move to Dallas — particularly if someone in your league is a Texas Longhorns or Dallas Cowboys fan.

Week 5: Buy / Sell

October 9, 2008 Leave a comment

This post is short this week, because really only one (big name) player comes to mind:

RB Michael Turner (ATL): I maintain my stance that you should “sell high” on Turner. He has only played well against the Lions (ranked 30th against the run), the Cheifs (31st), and the Packers (27th). However, he has looked marginal against the Panthers (13th) and Bucs (14th), who are just barely in the top half of the league. Also, if your championship game is in week 16, Turner plays Minnesota (ranked 3rd) that week. You should not necessarily make your decision based on that alone, but I beleive Turner will only play well against bad defenses and he will struggle against average and/or good defenses. So now, when he is #1 in the league in rushing, is the time to sell — because you should be able to get a WR1 and a RB2 who is on the way up (e.g. Slaton, Ronnie Brown).

PS — Just so you do not think I am crazy, here is someone who agrees with me.

Week 4: Buy / Sell

October 1, 2008 Leave a comment

BUY: Often, there are some guys who struggle to start the season, but will eventually come around. You should try to capitalize on the frustrations of their current owners and “buy low” on the following players:

QB Matt Hasselbeck (SEA): Hasselbeck is really struggling this year, mostly due to a complete lack of options in the passing game. However, both Engram and Branch are expected to return very soon (possibly in week 5). Plus, Julius Jones has been running pretty well. He will do much better during the second half of the year.

RB Thomas Jones (NYJ): The Jets started out the year being very conservative on offense, as Favre got used to the new system. As Favre learns more of the plays and becomes more comfortable in the offense, Jones will see more running room. And Favre is a great play-action QB, so they will definitely try to get Jones involved to set up some throws downfield off of the play-action.

WR Dwayne Bowe (KC): Bowe has played pretty well this year, but now that Huard is back, he should continue to put up solid numbers. Huard looks to Bowe often, and Bowe has good hands and good body control. If Larry Johnson continues to run well, and Gonzalez can work the middle of the field, Bowe should have plenty of opportunities to make plays.

SELL: And sometimes, guys perform very well for a period of time, but cannot sustain it over the entire year. You should look to capitalize on their perceived value and “sell high”. I would try to move the following players and trade for someone more consistent:

RB Michael Turner (ATL): It may be too early to judge Turner, but so far he has only performed well at home against two of the worst defenses in the NFL. I am not convinced that he can be consistent, which is what you need out of a RB1. The Packers allow 160 rushing yards a game. I would sell high after this week.

RB Reggie Bush (NO): Tough to sell high after he scores 3.8 points in week 4, but I think Reggie will struggle to be consistent this year, especially now that Deuce is back in the mix. Reggie will be involved in the passing game, but he is not as productive as you need a RB2 to be. Flashy and fun, but not consistently productive.