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Week 13: Waiver Wire
The playoffs are right around the corner, so it is time to make some moves to set yourself up for a championship run.
When the playoffs are close, I like to adjust my strategy. Earlier in the year, I like to pick up some flyers (i.e. “sleepers”) and see if they work out and can help my team win some games. But later in the year, I usually avoid taking those chances. Not only are most so-called “sleepers” already on someone else’s roster, but the potential value is outweighed by the opportunity costs associated with losing a roster spot you could otherwise use for depth.
So, when the playoffs are near, I usually try to add the real-life backup to my key players. For example, I have Marion Barber in one league, so I am going to add his backup, Tashard Choice. If Barber happens to get hurt, Choice should perform fairly well in his place, which means my chances of winning in the playoffs are not completely destroyed, even though I lost my best player.
By now, your rosters should be set up pretty well, but here are some names to consider adding if they are available in your league:
QB Tyler Thigpen (KC): I have talked about him before and he continues to play well.
RB Warrick Dunn (TB): Starter RB Earnest Graham is gone for the year, and Dunn performed well in his absence last week. He could be a good option going forward.
RB Peyton Hillis (DEN): Even with RB Tatum Bell in the mix, it was Hillis who got most of the yards and the TD. He should do well enough down the stretch to warrant a roster spot, and is worth a start against weaker defenses.
RB Darren McFadden (OAK): In his first real action back since his toe injuries kept him sidelined, McFadden scored 2 TDs. Although RB Justin Fargas got more carries and more yards, McFadden was definitely involved.
RB Kevin Faulk (NE): It is tough to predict who will do well in New England, but Faulk remains involved enough in the passing game to make him worth a roster spot.
RB Leon Washington (NYJ): He does not get many carries, but he is explosive and is a threat to score each game. Add him, but be judicious with when you put him in your lineup.
WR Mark Bradley (KC): I have talked up Bradley before in this space, and he continues to perform pretty well in KC. WR Dwayne Bowe is still the main guy, and TE Tony Gonzalez is always involved, but Bradley still gets enough looks to be worth a roster spot.
WR Ted Ginn (MIA): The Dolphins lost WR Greg Camarillo for the year, which means Ginn should get more looks.
WR Davone Bess (MIA): See Ginn, Ted.
TE Kevin Boss (NYG): After posting zero catches last week, he came through this week with another TD (giving him 4 in his last 5 games). Considering last week was against the Ravens, we will give him a pass. He should do well down the stretch.
TE John Carlson (SEA): Although he has not looked that great, QB Matt Hasselbeck is back, which does improve the value of Carlson.
Week 12: Friday Injury Report
QB Brady Quinn (CLE): Quinn (finger) is expected to play this week. Advice: Quinn broke the index finger on his throwing hand, but is not expected to miss any time.
RB Steven Jackson (STL): Jackson (thigh) is out this week (again). Advice: RB Antonio Pittman will start in place of Jackson, although he is not a great start against the Bears.
RB Brandon Jacobs (NYG): Jacobs (knee) is probable this week. Advice: The MRI on his knee did not show any damage, but his playing status for this week is unclear. He seems to think he will play, but either way, he will not be 100%. I would stay away. Look for RB Derrick Ward and RB Ahmad Bradshaw to get more work.
RB Clinton Portis (WAS): Portis (knee) sat out of practice all week. Advice: Portis showed last week against Dallas that he is one of the toughest guys in the NFL. He could get pulled if the Redskins are beating up on the Seahawks, but I expect him to play.
RB Brian Westbrook (PHI): Westbrook (ribs, ankle, knee) missed practice all week. Advice: Even if he does play, he has an awful matchup against the Ravens, and RB Correll Buckhalter is going to get some extra work. Unless you are desperate, I would stay away.
RB Reggie Bush (NO): Bush (knee) was expected to return this week, but now his status is unclear. Advice: Even if he does return, he clearly is not 100%, so I would wait another week (or two).
WR Roddy White (ATL):White (back) is listed as questionable this week. Advice: i expect white to play, but he is up against a tough matchup and is fighting a back injury, so I would consider benching him.
WR Reggie Wayne (IND): Wayne (ankle) tweaked his ankle injury last week against Houston but is expected to play against SD. Advice: Start him. SD is weak against the pass.
TE Kellen Winslow (CLE): Winslow (shoulder) is questionable this week. Advice: You might want to consider other options given his injury.
Week 12: Sit
QB Philip Rivers (SD) vs. IND: Rivers is good, but Indy allows the least points to fantasy QBs. Start him if you have no other reasonable options, but lower your expectations.
QB Brett Favre (NYJ) @ TEN: Favre has gone two whole games without an INT. So what? He has not played any good defenses lately. But Tennessee is very stout against the pass, so I expect Favre to struggle.
QB Ryan Fitzpatrick (CIN) @ PIT: Pittsburgh is just too good on defense.
QB Matt Ryan (ATL) vs. CAR: Carolina has a pretty good pass defense, so do not expect much from the rookie.
QB Donovan McNabb (PHI) @ BAL: Baltimore is very good on defense, and McNabb has not looked sharp lately. Plus, he might be without Westbrook.
QB Joe Flacco (BAL) vs. PHI: Flacco has been pretty solid lately, but Philly is a tough matchup. He played better than expected last week against a tough Giants defense, but this week is another tough game.
QB Daunte Culpepper (DET) vs. TB: He was a hot waiver wire addition this week, but he has a tough matchup against the Bucs.
Other QBs to sit:
QB Trent Edwards (BUF) @ CLE
QB Marc Bulger (STL) vs. CHI
QB Jamarcus Russell (OAK) @ DEN
QB Jake Delhomme (CAR) @ ATL
QB Matt Hasselbeck (SEA) vs. WAS
RB Tim Hightower (ARI) vs. NYG: The Giants are just too strong upfront.
RB Kevin Smith (DET) vs. TB: I was tempted to suggest starting Smith, who has been playing very well lately. But Tampa Bay is just too solid upfront. Consider him if you have no other options.
RB Cedric Benson (CIN) @ PIT: Yeah, right.
RB Brian Westbrook (PHI) @ BAL: There are concerns about Westbrook being injured, and despite what the Giants did last week, it is very tough to run on the Ravens. Similarly, if Westbrook cannot go, RB Correll Buckhalter makes a poor start.
RB Willis McGahee (BAL), RB Ray Rice (BAL) vs. PHI: Just as it will be tough sledding for the Philly RBs, it will be a rough day for the Ravens RBs, whichever one ends up getting the start.
RB Thomas Jones (NYJ) @ TEN: Jones has been playing well lately, but Tennessee is very solid upfront. Look for him to struggle.
RB Michael Turner (ATL) vs. CAR: Turner has not put up good yardage totals lately, but he has been saved by scoring TDs. I think this week, he will fail to reach the endzone, and also struggle to put up yards.
RB Maurice Jones-Drew (JAX), RB Fred Taylor (JAX) vs. MIN: Until the Williams boys are suspended, Minnesota will remain nearly impossible to run on.
RB Brandon Jacobs (NYG) @ ARI: There are rumors going around that Jacobs has a sore knee and might sit this weekend. Arizona is pretty tough against the run, and given the concerns about Jacobs’ knee, I would bench him, unless you have no other options.
Other RBs to sit:
RB Julius Jones (SEA) vs. WAS
RB Reggie Bush (NO) vs. GB (I like the matchup, but not sure if he is healthy)
RB Larry Johnson (KC) vs. BUF
RB Steven Jackson (STL) vs. CHI (already ruled out)
RB Antonio Pittman (STL) vs. CHI
WR Chris Chambers (SD), WR Vincent Jackson (SD) vs. IND: Indy gives up the least amount of points to fantasy WRs.
WR Jerricho Cotchery (NYJ), WR Laveranues Coles (NYJ) @ TEN: Tennessee is just too tough for me to recommend either.
WR Chad Johnson (CIN) @ PIT: Johnson was suspended for this week;’s game by the team.
WR DeSean Jackson (PHI) @ BAL: Baltimore is too tough against the pass to recommend starting the rookie.
WR Calvin Johnson (DET) vs. TB: Johnson has been doing well this season despite all the QB issues. I think this week, however, he will struggle.
Other WRs to bench:
WR Marques Colston (NO) vs. GB
WR Donte’ Stallworth (CLE) vs. HOU
WR Lee Evans (BUF) @ KC
WR Matt Jones (JAX) vs. MIN
Week 12: Start
START:
QB Peyton Manning (IND) @ SD: Peyton is playing great right, and SD gives up the most points to fantasy QBs.
QB Jeff Garcia (TB) @ DET: Detroit is awful. Even Garcia should put up big numbers.
QB Brady Quinn (CLE) vs. HOU: Broken finger and all, he still has a good matchup.
QB Jason Campbell (WAS) @ SEA: Campbell has not been playing all that well lately due to some tough matchups, but the Seahawks will be much easier.
QB Kyle Orton (CHI) @ STL: Yes, Orton has a bum ankle, and he played poorly lastl week against Green Bay, but the Rams are weak against the pass.
QB Gus Frerotte (MIN) @ JAX: He will probably have a few turnovers, but Jacksonville is friendly to opposing QBs, so he is still worth a start.
QB Kerry Collins (TEN) vs. NYJ: The Jets, much like the past few Titans opponents, will likely focus on the run. Although the Jets are solid upfront, they are vulnerable against the pass.
QB Aaron Rodgers (GB) @ NO: Rodgers is healthy again, and should do well against a weak New Orleans pass defense. And this game is likely to be high-scoring.
QB Eli Manning (NYG) @ ARI: The Cardinals give up the most passing TDs in the NFL, and Eli should do pretty well.
Other QBs to start:
QB Drew Brees (NO) vs. GB
QB Jay Cutler (DEN) vs. OAK
QB Kurt Warner (ARI) vs. NYG
QB Tyler Thigpen (KC) vs. BUF
QB Matt Cassel (NE) @ MIA
QB David Garrard (JAX) vs. MIN
QB Shaun Hill (SF) @ DAL
QB Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) vs. CIN
QB Tony Romo (DAL) vs. SF
RB Marshawn Lynch (BUF) @ KC: Kansas City is extremely soft against the run. And QB Trent Edwards is not playing well lately, so Buffalo will likely lean on Lynch.
RB Matt Forte (CHI) @ STL: Forte has a great matchup.
RB Justin Fargas (OAK) @ DEN: I am hesitant even to suggest starting an Oakland player, but Denver is so soft against the run that someone has to do well, right?
RB Warrick Dunn (TB) @ DET: Dunn steps in for the injured RB Earnest Graham, and gets an easy matchup.
RB Peyton Hillis (DEN) vs. OAK: It is unclear how much of a role RB Tatum Bell will play in Denver, but I think Hillis will at least remain the goal line back. So he is worth a start against a very soft Raiders run defense.
RB LaDainian Tomlinson (SD) vs IND: Unfortunately, LT is no longer a must-start. But he has a good matchup this week against Indy, who gave up 150+ yards to RB Steve Slaton last week.
RB Jamal Lewis (CLE) vs. HOU: Lewis is playing pretty well this year, and has a good matchup this week.
RB Marion Barber (DAL) vs. SF: You gotta start Barber every week.
RB Willie Parker (PIT) vs. CIN: Parker is healthy again and has a pretty good matchup against the Bengals.
RB Chris Johnson (TEN) vs. NYJ: I know he has a tough matchup, and he has not been doing all that well lately, but I still like him this week.
Other RBs to start:
RB Steve Slaton (HOU) @ CLE
RB Clinton Portis (WAS) @ SEA
RB Adrian Peterson (MIN) @ JAX
RB Frank Gore (SF) @ DAL
RB Joseph Addai (IND) @ SD
RB Ryan Grant (GB) @ NO
WR Sanata Moss (WAS) @ SEA: Seattle is just plain bad.
WR Terrell Owens (DAL), WR Roy Williams (DAL) vs. SF: Romo is (mostly) healthy, and SF presents a very favorable matchup for the Dallas WRs.
WR Donnie Avery (STL) vs. CHI: Chicago is vulnerable against the pass but stout against the run, so the Rams will likely be throwing the ball often. You might even consider starting WR Torry Holt.
WR Antonio Bryant (TB) @ DET: Everyone scores against Detroit.
WR Plaxico Burress (NYG) @ ARI: Arizona gives up a lot of passing TDs, so look for Eli and Plax to hook up.
WR Randy Moss (NE), WR Wes Welker (NE) @ MIA: Miami has a pretty weak secondary, so Moss and Welker should do pretty well.
WR Andre Johnson (HOU) @ CLE: Cleveland is not awful against the pass, but they are not good enough to stop AJ. Even though he is not as hot as he was early in the year, he is still a must-start.
WR Greg Jennings (GB), WR Donald Driver (GB) @ NO: Look for the Packers to run the ball quite a bit against the Saints, but I think they will also move the ball through the air quite a bit. I have a feeling there will be a lot of offense in the Superdome on MNF.
WR Greg Camarillo (MIA), WR Ted Ginn (MIA) vs. NE: Camarillo has to earn that new paycheck. And Ginn has been playing well.
WR Hines Ward (PIT), WR Santonio Holmes (PIT) vs. CIN: Cincinatti is decent against the pass, but Roethlisberger should be able to spread the ball around and get both Ward and Holmes some catches.
Other WRs to start:
WR Reggie Wayne (IND) @ SD
WR Marvin Harrison (IND) @ SD
WR Anquan Boldin (ARI) vs. NYG
WR Larry Fitzgerald (ARI) vs. NYG
WR Dwayne Bowe (KC) vs. BUF
WR Bernard Berrian (MIN) @ JAX
WR Brandon Marshall (DEN) vs. OAK
WR Eddie Royal (DEN) vs. OAK
WR Steve Smith (CAR) @ ATL
WR Roddy White (ATL) vs. CAR
WR Lance Moore (NO) vs. GB
WR Justin Gage (TEN) vs. NYJ
WR Braylon Edwards (CLE) vs. HOU (seriously)
Week 12: Buy / Sell
Alright. Most trade deadlines have likely passed. But here is one last edition of “Buy / Sell” for anyone who can still make moves. Since most cannot, I will make it short and sweet.
BUY:
QB Tony Romo (DAL): He is finally back, but had a poor outing. I think it will take him a game or two to adjust to his pinkie splint, but overall, he will be fine. Try to buy low now.
RB Steve Slaton (HOU): He has a very, very easy schedule to end the season. He had a huge game last week, so it might not be an easy task to pry him away from his owner. But suggest that Ahman Green is going to continue to vulture his TDs (which is a real threat) and see if that lowers the asking price.
RB Ryan Grant (GB): He has been playing well lately against some pretty tough defenses. The Packers are committed to the run, and Grant looks primed to go on a stretch of good games like he did at the end of last year. Do not give up too much for him, since he has some tough matchups, but he will definitely do better over the last few weeks than he did over the first.
WR Reggie Wayne (IND): Wayne had another down game (by his standards) last week, but QB Peyton Manning is clearly back, and the Colts have a very friendly schedule down the stretch. See if you can make a move for Wayne now. You will be happy you did.
SELL:
RB Michael Turner (ATL): You know how I feel about him — he only plays well against poor defenses. He has scored 3 TDs in his last two weeks, which has saved him for fantasy purposes, but his rushing totals are not very good. Last week against Denver — who has one of the worst run defenses in the league — he only managed 81 yards on 25 carries. And he plays against Minnesota in week 16, which is likely your championship weekend.
Week 12: Monday Injury Report
QB Tony Romo (DAL): Romo (finger) saw his first action since breaking his finger about a month ago. Advice: Romo looked rusty, but was able to lead the Cowboys to a win over the Redskins. I think he might have to deal with his finger for the rest of the season, although he should start to get used to it — and thus become more effective — as the season goes on.
QB Kyle Orton (CHI): Orton (ankle) started against the Packers but was benched late in the game when it was out of reach. Advice: Orton was clearly limited by his ankle injry, and was seen hobbling around on the field. I do not expect him to return to form any time soon, so keep him on your bench for now.
RB Clinton Portis (WAS): Portis (knee) was surprisingly active against the Cowboys. Advice: Portis is one of the toughtest guys in the NFL and often plays through injuries, but I was surprised to see him out there on SNF. I have not seen any reports that indicate whether he aggracated his MCL sprain, though, so expect him to be ready to go next week.
RB Willis McGahee (BAL): McGahee (ankle) reaggravated his ankle injury this past weekend. Advice: McGahee has been struggling with injuries all year, which makes his backups — RB Ray Rice and RB Le’Ron McClaim — valuable commodities in most leagues. It is not clear how serious this injury is, but if McGahee misses any time or is limited, expect Rice to step in and perform pretty well.
RB Earnest Graham (TB): Graham (ankle) is expected to miss the remainder of the season. Advice: With Graham out, RB Warrick Dunn will take over as the main RB in Tampa Bay. Also, RB Cadillac Williams, who was recently removed from the PUP list, could see a few carries down the road.
RB Brandon Jacobs (NYG): Jacobs (knee) missed the second half of the Giants game with a sore knee. Advice: Jacobs is expected to have a “precautionary” MRI, but his injury is not expected to be serious. Check back for updates, though.
WR Donald Driver (GB): Driver (knee) hobbled off the field against the Bears, but later returned to the game. Advice: Coach Mike McCarthy said that Driver had an assortment of ailments, but none seem to serious, so expect him to be in the lineup next week against New Orleans.
Week 11: Random Thoughts
1. How many teams lost because the officials in the Pittsburgh-San Diego game blew that last call?
2. RB Clinton Portis is one tough dude.
3. RB Steve Slaton bounced back in a big way. Hopefully you stuck with him.
4. The Cardinals passing game is ridiculous.
5. Not a pretty return for QB Matt Hasselbeck.
6. The last-second TD catch by WR Randy Moss was amazing.
7. Speaking of the Jets-Patriots game, when is the NFL going to change the rules for OT to make it like college?
8. Does RB Ryan Grant only run well in the second half of the season?
9. Is WR Justin Gage relevant now that the Titans are being forced to pass the ball more?
10. RB Michael Turner had another average performance against an average run defense, but his fantasy line was saved by 2 TDs.
Week 11: Friday Injury Report
Again, sorry if this is kinda brief. My “real job” seems to be getting in the way, lately… But here are some key injuries to consider when setting your lineups for Week 11. Good luck.
QB Tony Romo (DAL): Romo (finger) has been practicing and should be back to 100%. Advice: Start him.
QB Ben Roethlisberger (PIT): Roethlisberger (shoulder, hand) has been beat up this year. But he is expected to start this weekend, and has a good matchup. Advice: Start him.
QB Kyle Orton (CHI): Orton (ankle) is expected to be back in the lineup this week. Advice: I think Orton will be less than 100%, and he is up against a tough Packers pass defense. Leave him on the bench.
RB Clinton Portis (WAS): Portis (knee) has a sprained MCL and will almost certainly not play this week. Advice: Unfortunately, the Skins play Sunday night, so you will not have the luxury of knowing whether Portis will play when you set the rest of your lineup. I would bench him (in fact, I did bench him in one of my leagues). RB Ladell Betts will get the start in his place, but Betts does not make a very good play, as he is not 100%, either. And do not even consider RB Shaun Alexander.
RB Steven Jackson (STL): Jackson (thigh) is almost certainly out this week. Advice: It looks like RB Antonio Pittman will get the start, and he makes a pretty solid play against the 49ers.
RB Reggie Bush (NO): Bush (knee) was back at practice this week, but his status for this weekend is in doubt. Advice: I would leave him on the bench until you are sure he is ready to go.
RB Cedric Benson (CIN): Benson (back) has missed practice this week and might miss the game this weekend. Advice: If Benson sits out, RB Chris Perry will start in his place. But do not expect either to have much success against the Eagles.
RB Earnest Graham (TB): Graham (knee) missed practice and is not certain if he will play this week. Advice: He is injured and up against a very tough Minnesota run defense. Bench him.
RB Frank Gore (SF): Gore (neck) is reported to have a neck strain or a possible concussion. Advice: I think he will be ready to play this weekend, but keep an eye on his status. He makes a good start against St. Louis if he is in the lineup, but if he cannot go, look for RB Deshaun Foster to get the start.
RB Willie Parker (PIT): Parker (shoulder, knee) is still recovering from his knee injury and also has a shoulder injury that he is being very cagey about. Advice: Parker is expected to play this weekend, but expeect RB Mewelde Moore to get some carries, as well. Parker still makes a good play against a relatively soft SD defense, but do not get overly excited.
WR Javon Walker (OAK): Walker (foot) was placed on IR and will miss the rest of the year. Advice: Does anyone really care?
TE Jason Witten (NO): Witten (ribs) said he is ready to go this weekend. Advice: He will play, and should be much more effectve than he was in previous weeks now that QB Tony Romo is back.
TE Heath Miller (PIT_: Miller (ankle) will miss this week’s game. Advice: Bench him. Consider TE Billy Miller (no relation) if you are looking for a fill-in TE this week.
Fantasy Funk 