Yes… No… Maybe?
“Yes… No… Maybe?” is my version of the start-sit post. For the most part, I avoided the obvious (i.e. “Start Adrian Peterson and Drew Brees!”) and tried to focus on the fringe players. Beginning next week, I will recap how I did the previous week. So, eventually, when it turns out I am wrong all the time, you can pull a Costanza and just do the opposite.
And, just in case you are confused by the obvious nature of the post, here is a key:
Yes = Start these players. They have a high likelihood of performing well.
No = Sit these players. The risk is too high that they will struggle.
Maybe = Start these guys if you do not have better options. They could do well. Or they could fail.
Yes
QB Trent Edwards (BUF) vs. TB: Last week, QB Tony Romo put up a career-high in passing yards against TB. I doubt Edwards will replicate that effort, but he should have a good game. He has the weapons and TB is vulnerable.
RB Ray Rice (BAL) @ SD: OAK was able to push the SD DL around last week and managed to put up some rushing yards. BAL is a better running team, so Rice should get plenty of work. RB Willis McGahee and RB LeRon McClain could steal his TDs, but that is no reason not to use him. He should have around 100 total yards again.
RB Fred Jackson (BUF) vs. TB: Jackson did very well last week in place of suspended RB Marshawn Lynch, and he should have another solid outing against TB, who is not nearly as strong on DEF as most people think.
RB Clinton Portis (WAS) vs. STL: Portis is probably a must-start guy each week, but there are rumors that hsi touches are going to be limited and RB Ladell Betts is going to get more work. But RB Julius Jones went nuts on STL last week, so Portis should have a big day.
WR Louis Murphy (OAK) vs. KC: Yes, I know he has the fat caveman throwing him the ball. But there are just not many other options in OAK outside of TE Zach Miller (here’s a free one: Start Miller, too). Murphy was inches away from scoring 2 TDs last week and should have another good day against a KC pass DEF that struggles.
NO
QB Jay Cutler (CHI) vs. PIT: I doubt Cutler wil blow up and have 4 INTs again — although it would be awesome if he did — but I would consider other options this week. PIT is very good on DEF and could give him troubles, just like GB did with their version of the 3-4.
QB Matt Schaub (HOU) @ TEN: Schaub struggled last week against NYJ, and TEN is just as good or better than NYJ against the pass. TEN does not have a shutdown CB like NYJ has in CB Darrelle Revis, but I think they will contain Schaub enough to make him bench-worthy. Plus, I think his ankle is still bothering him.
RB LaDainian Tomlinson (SD) vs. BAL: LT is banked up with an ankle injury and is expected to be a game-time decision. Even if he does play, I have very little confidence that he will have a good day against the BAL DEF.
RB Steve Slaton (HOU) @ TEN: This was a tough one. Partly becuase I have him in one of my leagues. But also because, last year, he was the only RB to put up over 100 yards rushing on TEN. And he did it twice. So he is a lock to have a good game again, right? I wish. I think he will struggle. He is a borderline “no/maybe” though. Start him if you are really desperate.
WR Devin Hester (CHI) vs. PIT: But for one blown coverage last week in the GB game, Hester did nothing. I do not think PIT will blow coverage and let him get behind them, even without SS Troy Polomalu.
MAYBE
RB Pierre Thomas (NO) @ PHI: Thomas claims to be healthy and ready to go. If this is true, he should get enough work against PHI to make him worthy of a start. I think RB Mike Bell will continue to get some reps as they ease Thomas back in, but Thomas will be the man once he is 100%.
RB Darren Sproles (SD) vs. BAL: I am not sure why I hate Sproles. I was not high on him coming into this year. And now, even with LT hurt, I am still not all that high on him. He is very involved in the passing game, which is great. But he simply is not an every-down RB. However, with LT out, he makes a good start if you do not have other options. But I think BAL will do a better job of containing him than OAK did.
RB Kevin Smith (DET) vs. MIN: Smith could have an okay day, because he is involved in the passing game. And that is the only reason he is a “maybe” and not a “no”. MIN is just too stout against the run. But this has “trap game” written all over it… MIN has all the hype, and DET has not won a game in a long time. Who knows a good bookie? I just got paid…
RB Willie Parker (PIT) @ CHI: I am not a fan of FWP this year. He looked very marginal in week 1. And the PIT OL is not great. But CHI is without MLB Brian Urlacher, which makes him slightly more attractive.
WR Laurent Robinson (STL) @ WAS: Robinson had a solid week 1 and led the team in targets. And he had a couple red zone looks. STL is gonna be losing so they will have to pass. Which makes him a sneaky WR3 play this week if you need help.
Leave a comment and let me know what you think. Or, if you have other start-sit dilemmas, leave a comment and I will respond.
Week 1 Injury Report
So, it’s finally here. Week 1 of the NFL season. Which means it is time to stop bragging about how sweet your team is and try to figure out how to win your week 1 matchup. Hopefully you are not dealing with any injured players, but just in case you are, here is a rundown of who is injured and whether you can expect them to play.
QB Kurt Warner (ARI): Warner (hip) is old and has a crazy wife, but he will play in week 1.
QB Carson Palmer (CIN): Palmer (ankle) will play in week 1.
QB Kyle Orton (DEN): Orton (finger) is expected to start in week 1.
QB Matt Cassel (KC): Cassel’s (knee) status for week 1 is still unclear.
QB Matt Schaub (HOU): Schaub (ankle) will be in the lineup in week 1.
RB Maurice Jones-Drew (JAX): MJD (shin) has missed practice and his status for week 1 is unclear. But until we hear otherwise, I think he will be in the lineup. His touches may be limited though. So expect rookie RB Rashad Jennings and RB/FB Greg Jones to get some extra work.
RB Jonathan Stewart (CAR): Stewart’s (achilles) status for week 1 is in doubt. RB DeAngelo Williams should benefit greatly from this. Also, rookie RB Mike Goodson could get some extra work.
RB Brian Westbrook (PHI): Westbrook (knee, ankle) had 2 offseason surgeries, but is expected to be in the lineup in week 1.
RB Pierre Thomas (NO): Thomas’ (knee) status for week 1 is in doubt. Grab RB Mike Bell if he is available in your league. He should do well against DET.
RB Clinton Portis (WAS): Portis (ribs) is back at practice and will start at RB in week 1.
RB Reggie Bush (NO): Bush (knee) should play in week 1, but he is not 100%.
RB Knowshon Moreno (DEN): Moreno (knee) is on schedule to play in week 1. But I do not expect him to get a full load quite yet.
RB Beanie Wells (ARI): Wells (ankle) seems to be fully-recoverd from his ankle injury, but RB Tim Hightower is the starter as of now.
RB Marshawn Lynch (BUF): Lynch (suspension) will miss the first 3 games. RB Fred Jackson should see a majority of the touches in his absence.
RB Fred Jackson (BUF): Jackson (wrist) should be ready to go. RB Xavier Omon would get some touches if Jackson is not 100% healthy.
WR Greg Jennings (GB): Jennings (concussion) is ready to go in week 1.
WR Anquan Boldin (ARI): Boldin (hamstring) has missed practices recently, but I think he will be ready for week 1.
WR Terrell Owens (BUF): Owens’ (toe) is supposed to be ready and should be on the field this weekend.
WR Antonio Bryant (TB): Bryant (knee) is expected to be ready for week 1.
WR Donnie Avery (STL): Avery (foot) should be available for the week 1 game.
WR Chaz Schilens (OAK): Schilens (foot) will miss the first couple weeks of the season.
WR Nate Washington (TEN): Washington (hamstring) is expected to miss a week or 2.
WR Mike Sims-Walker (JAX): Sims-Walker (aknle) finally got on the field in the JAX preseason finale (and caught a TD). His status in the lineup is unclear, but he should be healthy enough to play.
WR Steve Breaston (ARI): Breaston (knee) is expected to be ready for week 1.
WR Michael Crabtree (SF): I have yet to confirm this, but I believe Crabtree must have hit his head very hard. Because the sh!t this guy is pulling is insane.
Did I miss anyone? I hope not. Post a comment if you have a question about a player that is not listed here and I will get back to you with an update…
Preseason Injury Roundup
It’s this time of the year when everyone starts complaining that the preseason is too long and all that happens is players are injured unnecessarily. And that may be true. But the preseason is not going anywhere. And, unfortunately, neither are preseason injuries. Here are some notable injuries to be aware of as we head into the regular [fantasy] season. I am sure I missed a few. And I might have even made up a couple. It is kinda hard to get a read on injuries during the preseason, since teams are not required to disclose them on an injury report.
QB Tom Brady (NE): Brady injured his throwing shoulder when DT Albert Haynesworth fell on him in the third preseason game. But Brady is apparently back at practice and expects to be fine for the opener. So Brady and Moss owners can breath easily.
QB Drew Brees (NO): I know, I know. Brees himself is not hurt. I am probably freaking people out by putting him on this list. But I only include him here because his starting LT is injured and will miss the first part of the season. And, just in case you did not know, the LT is a very important component of the passing game. Brees should do just fine, but it is something to be aware of.
QB Brent Farve (MIN): [Please note that I refuse to call him by his real name. That person retired a couple of years ago from the Packers.
QB Matt Cassel (KC): As if he did not have enough question marks hanging over his head, now he has to deal with a knee and ankle injury. There are conflicting reports regarding his availability for week 1, but it seems likely that he will miss some time. Keep checking on the updates as week 1 gets closer. But you should have a backup plan.
QB Matt Schaub (HOU): Shocking to find Schaub on the injury report, huh? I am always tempted by his talent, but I simply cannot bring myself to draft him anymore. He is too injury-prone. And now he will enter the season beat up. Which is not a good sign.
QB Kyle Orton (DEN): Orton has what is being described as an “open dislocation”. I am no doctor (nor do I play one on TV), but that does not sound good. As with Cassel, there are mixed reports on whether he will plan in week 1. Hopefully you drafted Orton as your QB2, so it does not matter. If you drafted him as your QB1, well, you might want to check the waiver wire and see who else is out there.
QB Carson Palmer (CIN): Palmer has been nursing a high-ankle sprain all preseason. Which is not good. But he claims to be healing and that he will be ready for Week 1. His availability will have a huge impact on the rest of the CIN players.
Big Risks = Bigger Rewards
There are a few guys that could have absolutely huge fantasy seasons if they can stay healthy. Unfortunately, they have not shown us that they can do this on a regular basis. Which is why they are big risks. But if things work out, the rewards could be tremendous.
QB Matt Schaub (HOU): Somewhat surprisingly, Schaub has been one of the best QBs in the NFL (statistically) when healthy over the past couple of years. Unfortunately, he has missed a significant amount of time recently due to a variety of injuries. If he can finally put together a healthy season, he should be a top-level fantasy QB, with guys like WR Andre Johnson, RB Steve Slaton, and TE Owen Daniels.
RB Steven Jackson (STL): Remember when Jackson was one of the best RBs in fantasy football? Me either. It seems like so long ago. But on top of coming into the year healthy, Jackson will also be running behind a much-improved offensive line. If you could guarantee me that Jackson will play every game, I would rank him right behind RB Adrian Peterson. But Jackson’s health is far from guaranteed. So if you like to gamble, S-Jax is your man.
RB Brandon Jacobs (NYG): In most respects, the departure of RB Derrick Ward to TB is good for Jacobs, because he should get more carries. However, it also means he will take more of a pounding. And he has missed nearly 10 games over the past two years due to injuries. But if he can stay healthy, he should be a beast and improve on his numbers from 2008.
RB Clinton Portis (WAS): Portis had nearly 950 yards through 7 games in 2008. And then, well, he slowed down, so to speak. Portis gets a lot of touches. And he is one of the toughest RBs in the NFL. But he is wearing down. And that is a major concern. Although you can expect RB Ladell Betts to get a larger share of the carries this year, Portis is still going to have over 300 touches. So if he can avoid the minor injuries that have slowed him in the recent past, he should be a very solid option at RB.
RB LaDainian Tomlinson (SD): Do you think he has one last hurrah in him? I do. His foot injury last year really hampered his ability to run and cut effectively. Which is precisely what made him so great to begin with. And do not buy all the talk about RB Darren Sproles. Yes, he is good. But he is not a full-time RB and he never will be. So look for LT to be the main guy again, although Sproles will eat into his production. Either way, I expect LT to be a top-10 RB one last time before he descends into fantasy oblivion with the likes of Shaun Alexander and Priest Holmes.
WR Marques Colston (NO): When Colston plays, he is a stud. Unfortunately, he has not played much over the past couple of years. Many people will be gun-shy after spending high picks on him last year. But you saw what he can do in the last few games of the year when he was finally back in action. QB Drew Brees is playing at a very high level. And if Colston is healthy, he will be the main beneficiary of Brees’ play. Maybe it was just bad luck. Or maybe he is injury-prone. But if he can stay healthy, someone will get a very good deal on him.
TE Kellen Winslow (TB): Winslow has had knee surgery every year since his rookie year. Yet, somehow, he has been pretty effective as a playmaking TE. When he is on the field, he performs well. And he was on the field during 2006 and 2007. But he missed 6 games in 2008. Given his history, you can probably get him on the cheap. But do not be upset if he misses some time.
Week 16: RB Rankings
Here are your Week 16 RB Rankings. And check out the QB Rankings and WR Rankings.
- Pierre Thomas @ DET
- Matt Forte vs. GB
- Michael Turner @ MIN
- Adrian Peterson vs. ATL
- Thomas Jones @ SEA
- Steve Slaton @ OAK
- Brian Westbrook @ WAS
- DeAngelo Williams @ NYG
- Steven Jackson vs. SF
- Marshawn Lynch @ DEN
- Kevin Smith vs. NO
- Ronnie Brown @ KC
- Sammy Morris vs. ARI
- Chris Johnson vs. PIT
- Clinton Portis vs. PHI
- Ryan Grant @ CHI
- LaDainian Tomlinson @ TB
- Derrick Ward vs. CAR
- Justin Fargas vs. HOU
- Brandon Jacobs vs. CAR
- Cedric Benson @ CLE
- Willie Parker @ TEN
- Larry Johnson vs. MIA
- Kevin Faulk vs. ARI
- Le’Ron McClain @ DAL