Week 1 Injury Report

So, it’s finally here. Week 1 of the NFL season. Which means it is time to stop bragging about how sweet your team is and try to figure out how to win your week 1 matchup. Hopefully you are not dealing with any injured players, but just in case you are, here is a rundown of who is injured and whether you can expect them to play.

QB Kurt Warner (ARI): Warner (hip) is old and has a crazy wife, but he will play in week 1.

QB Carson Palmer (CIN): Palmer (ankle) will play in week 1.

QB Kyle Orton (DEN): Orton (finger) is expected to start in week 1.

QB Matt Cassel (KC): Cassel’s (knee) status for week 1 is still unclear.

QB Matt Schaub (HOU): Schaub (ankle) will be in the lineup in week 1.

RB Maurice Jones-Drew (JAX): MJD (shin) has missed practice and his status for week 1 is unclear. But until we hear otherwise, I think he will be in the lineup. His touches may be limited though. So expect rookie RB Rashad Jennings and RB/FB Greg Jones to get some extra work.

RB Jonathan Stewart (CAR): Stewart’s (achilles) status for week 1 is in doubt. RB DeAngelo Williams should benefit greatly from this. Also, rookie RB Mike Goodson could get some extra work.

RB Brian Westbrook (PHI): Westbrook (knee, ankle) had 2 offseason surgeries, but is expected to be in the lineup in week 1.

RB Pierre Thomas (NO): Thomas’ (knee) status for week 1 is in doubt. Grab RB Mike Bell if he is available in your league. He should do well against DET.

RB Clinton Portis (WAS): Portis (ribs) is back at practice and will start at RB in week 1.

RB Reggie Bush (NO): Bush (knee) should play in week 1, but he is not 100%.

RB Knowshon Moreno (DEN): Moreno (knee) is on schedule to play in week 1. But I do not expect him to get a full load quite yet.

RB Beanie Wells (ARI): Wells (ankle) seems to be fully-recoverd from his ankle injury, but RB Tim Hightower is the starter as of now.

RB Marshawn Lynch (BUF): Lynch (suspension) will miss the first 3 games. RB Fred Jackson should see a majority of the touches in his absence.

RB Fred Jackson (BUF): Jackson (wrist) should be ready to go. RB Xavier Omon would get some touches if Jackson is not 100% healthy.

WR Greg Jennings (GB): Jennings (concussion) is ready to go in week 1.

WR Anquan Boldin (ARI): Boldin (hamstring) has missed practices recently, but I think he will be ready for week 1.

WR Terrell Owens (BUF): Owens’ (toe) is supposed to be ready and should be on the field this weekend.

WR Antonio Bryant (TB): Bryant (knee) is expected to be ready for week 1.

WR Donnie Avery (STL): Avery (foot) should be available for the week 1 game.

WR Chaz Schilens (OAK): Schilens (foot) will miss the first couple weeks of the season.

WR Nate Washington (TEN): Washington (hamstring) is expected to miss a week or 2.

WR Mike Sims-Walker (JAX): Sims-Walker (aknle) finally got on the field in the JAX preseason finale (and caught a TD). His status in the lineup is unclear, but he should be healthy enough to play.

WR Steve Breaston (ARI): Breaston (knee) is expected to be ready for week 1.

WR Michael Crabtree (SF): I have yet to confirm this, but I believe Crabtree must have hit his head very hard. Because the sh!t this guy is pulling is insane.

Did I miss anyone? I hope not. Post a comment if you have a question about a player that is not listed here and I will get back to you with an update…

RB Handcuffs

As I have said before, you should not automatically grab the “handcuff” for the RBs you draft simply because they are their real life backup.

However, there are some “handcuffs” you should defnitely grab if you draft certain RBs. And here is a list of guys that, if you draft them, you should also draft their “handcuff”:

RB Adrian Peterson (MIN): Peterson has been a workhorse since he came into the league as a rookie. But he is not without injury concerns. And he may have one of the better backups in the league in RB Chester Taylor. If AP misses any time, Taylor should put up very good numbers in his stead.

RB Maurice Jones-Drew (JAX): MJD has had a very healthy career thus far. But he has also been limited in the amount of touches he’s had. This year JAX (finally) expects to use him as a fulltime ballcarrier. Although that increases his fantasy value, it also increases his chance to get injured. There has been no official word from JAX on his backup, but I expect RB Chauncey Washington would get the nod (initially) to take over the load. But also keep an eye on rookie RB Rashad Jennings, who could get some touches, too.

RB Michael Turner (ATL): Whether you believe “The Curse of 370” or not, you cannot argue with the fact that there is a body of statistical evidence out there that says it is very likely Turner will get injurd this year. So, even if you do not believe it, you should play the odds and pickup his backup. Unfortunately, his top backup, RB Jerious Norwood, suffered a knee injury recently. But he should be fine by the time Turner goes down. But you should also keep an eye on RB Jason Snelling and rookie RB Thomas Brown, who could get some work if Turner succumbs to “the curse”.

RB Frank Gore (SF): Gore is a highly-ranked RB this year, due to his skill level, the offense he is working in, and his history of being productive. However, he also has a history of being injury-prone. And rookie RB Glenn Cofffee is playing ver well. So add him if you have Gore, and look like a genius when Gore misses time and you casually insert Coffee into the lineup and pile up the points.

RB Brian Westbrook (PHI): If you gamble on Westbrook early, you need to make sure you get RB LeSean McCoy later in the draft. McCoy should put up very Westbrook-like numbers if/when Westbrook goes down.

RB Marion Barber (DAL): It is not entirely clear what role Barber will have in the DAL offense this year. But he should get enough touches to make him a very solid RB2. Either way, in the event that his brutish running-style causes him to miss any games, look for RB Tashard Choice to pick up his touches. RB Felix Jones should continue to get his own touches no matter what, although they would likely increase in the event that Barber goes down.

RB Pierre Thomas (NO): Thomas came into the year with high expectatoins, but an MCL injury has put his status for week 1 in doubt. If you have Thomas on your team, you should also add RB Mike Bell, who would benefit immensely if Thomas misses any time.

RB Clinton Porits (WAS): Those who had Portis on their team last year remember how much fun it was at the beginning of the season when he was killing it. And they also remember how miserable it was at the end of the year when he was getting killed. And now there are reports that he has a bruised rib. I love Portis and think he is about as tough as they come for NFL RBs. But as a result of his toughness, he often has nagging injuries. I think RB Ladell Betts will be involved more this year, and he should be on your roster if you own Portis.

RB Marshawn Lynch (BUF): We already know Lynch is going to miss the first 3 games of the year, which means RB Fred Jackson is going to get a majority of the touches during that time. Add him to your roster if you have Lynch, not only for those first three games, but also for later, just in case Lynch gets injured or cannot keep his nose clean.

RB Thomas Jones (NYJ): Thomas is getting older and has not looked good so far this year. But he did have a career-year in 2008, so it is hard to discount him completely. Either way, if he were to get hurt or become entirely ineffective, RB Shonn Greene would probably take over his role as the main ballcarrier. Although I think RB Leon Washington is the only NYJ RB worth owning, Greene will probbaly do alright in the event Jones goes down. But, like the situation in DAL, Washington would probably see his touches go up, as well.

RB Knowshon Moreno (DEN): Moreno has a ton of potential, unfortunately we have no idea whether he will ever meet said potential, because we have yet to see him play in the NFL for any legitimate amount of time due to a knee injury he suffered early on in his first preseason game (after a long holdout). I suspect he will be fine once he recovers, but if you took a flyer on him in your draft, you should also add RB Peyton Hillis, who seems (to me, anyway) as the best option DEN has if/when Moreno is out. RB Correll Buckhalter and RB LaMont Jordan are also in the mix, I suppose, but Hillis should be the most effective RB in the group.

RB Joseph Addai (IND): Addai has been fairly ineffective recently, and he has struggled to stay healthy. Enter rookie RB Donald Brown, who has looked sharp so far. It is hard to say what will happen with this RBBC, but it is safe to say that if Addai gets injured or cannot get the job done, Brown will step in and could do very well.

RB Jamal Lewis (CLE): Lewis has looked slow this preseason and is at that magical age (30) when RBs go down hill. So if you take him, you should also grab RB James Davis, who could supplant him as the starter by midseason.

RB Willie Parker (PIT): Parker has seen his YPC go down each year since becoming the starter. That is not a good sign of things to come. So if you take Fast Willie, make sure you also grab RB Rashard Mendenhall, who should see his role increase as the year goes along, especially if FWP cannot stay healthy.

Training Camp Position Battles

All 32 NFL teams are now in training camp. Which means there are plenty of position battles that you should be aware of as your fantasy draft approaches. I wrote about some NFC and AFC position battles a couple weeks ago, but I thought it would be worthwhile to update them now that camps are in full-swing. I did not include much (read: any) discussion of the battles. I just listed them so you can be aware. I did, however, list them in the order I expect the final depth charts to reflect. Check back as training camps progress to get updates on the key camp battles that will affect your fantasy draft.

AFC North
BAL RB: Ray Rice v. Willis McGahee v. Le’Ron McClain
CIN QB: Carson Palmer v. His Elbow
CLE RB: Jamal Lewis v. James Davis v. Jerome Harrison
PIT RB: Willie Parker v. Rashard Mendenhall v. Mewelde Moore

AFC South
IND RB: Joseph Addai v. Donald Brown
IND WR3: Pierre Garcon v. Austin Collie
JAX RB2: Chauncey Washington v. Rashad Jennings v. Greg Jones
TEN WR: Nate Washington v. Justin Gage

AFC East
MIA WR2: Greg Camarillo v. Devon Bess
NE RB: Fred Taylor v. Sammy Morris v. Kevin Faulk v. Laurence Maroney
NYJ RB: Thomas Jones v. Shonn Green v. Leon Washington
NYJ QB: Mark Sanchez v. Kellen Clemens

AFC West
DEN RB: Knowshon Moreno v. Correll Buckhalter v. Peyton Hillis v. Ryan Torain
KC RB: Larry Johnson v. Jamaal Charles v. Kolby Smith
SD WR2: Chris Chambers v. Malcolm Floyd v. Buster Davis
OAK RB: Darren McFadden v. Michael Bush v. Justin Fargas

NFC North
CHI WR1: Devin Hester v. Earl Bennet v. Rashied Davis
DET QB: Dante Culpeper v. Matthew Stafford
GB WR3: James Jones v. Jordy Nelson
GB TE: Jermichael Finley v. Donald Lee
MIN QB: Sage Rosenfels v. Tavaris Jackson
MIN WR2: Sidney Rice v. Percey Harvin

NFC South
NO WR2: Lance Moore v. Robert Meachem
NO WR3: Robert Meachem v. Devery Henderson
TB QB: Byron Leftwich v. Josh Freeman v. Luke McCown
TB RB: Earnest Graham v. Derrick Ward
TB WR2: Michael Clayton v. Maurice Stovall

NFC East
NYG RB2: Ahmad Bradshaw v. Andre Brown v. Danny Ware
DAL WR2: Patrick Crayton v. Austin Miles v. Sam Hurd
NYG WR: Dominic Hixon v. Steve Smith v. Mario Manningham v. Hakeem Nicks v. Ramses Barden
NYG WR2: Steve Smith v. Mario Manningham v. Hakeem Nicks v. Ramses Barden
PHI WR2: Kevin Curtis v. Jeremy Maclin
WAS WR2: Devin Thomas v. Antwaan Randle-El v. Malcolm Kelley

NFC West
AR RB: Tim Hightower v. Beanie Wells
SF QB: Shaun Hill v. Alex Smith
STL WR2: Laurent Robinson v. Keenan Burton

RB Handcuffs

You have all heard the term “handcuff” before when referring to fantasy football players and their backups. Generally, I am not a huge fan of automatically drafting a “handcuff” for your starter, but there are situations when it can be valuable.

I would only recommend drafting a handcuff if you are drafting a RB with a high (e.g. first 3 or 4 rounds) who is (1) injury-prone and (2) plays in a high-powered offense. For example, I would recommend grabbing Westbrook’s backup, because he is injury prone and the Eagles’ offense is very good. Conversely, I would not recommend grabbing RB Steven Jackson‘s handcuff, because he will not perform at anywhere near the same level. My point is this: Do not waste a pick by automatically selecting a handcuff for each of your RBs. There are more valuable players out there in many situations.

For your 2009 fantasy football draft, I would recommend the following handcuffs if you draft any of these players:

RB Adrian Peterson (MIN): Peterson accounts for a large percentage of the Viking offense. And it is reasonable to assume that if AP goes down, RB Chester Taylor will assume a similar role. Grabbing Taylor as a handcuff for AP can be tough, though, since Taylor gets enough touches on his own to make him worth drafting late. But it is always worthwhile to protect your investment in a guy like AP, who gets a lot of touches and thus is more exposed to potential injuries.

RB Brian Westbrook (PHI): Westbrook is old and about to breakdown. Or so everyone (including me) says. He could very well prove us all wrong this year, and avoid any injuries. But he is a risk. Handcuff = RB LeSean McCoy.

RB Maurice Jones-Drew (JAX): I do not consider MJD to be injury-prone, but any time a guy increases his workload in a significant way, you have to also consider him an increased risk to get injured. And the Jags like to make their RBs the focal point of their offense, so his backup should still do fairly well.  The only problem is, right now we are not entirely sure who that is going to be. Keep an eye on this situation throughout camp. Potential Handcuff(s) = FB Greg Jones, RB Chauncey Washington, and RB Rashad Jennings.

RB Brandon Jacobs (NYG): Jacobs is a bruiser. And although he usually doles out more punishment than he receives, you can almost guarantee he will miss time in 09 with a nagging injury. However, much like the Jags, it is not clear yet who would be the primary ball carrier if Jacobs goes down. Keep an eye on the battle for his backup during camp. Potential Handcuff(s) = RB Ahmad Bradshaw, RB Danny Ware, and RB Andre Brown.

RB Marion Barber (DAL): Although Barber did miss some time last year due to injury, I do not consider him injury prone. However, due to his running style, it is always a possibility. Handcuff = RB Tashard Choice (Note: I do not consider RB Felix Jones to be a handcuff for Barber, because I think Jones will be used differently in the offense.)

RB LaDainian Tomlinson (SD): As we all know, LT is getting older. And last year showed us that he is, in fact, human. Although I do expect him to have a better year in 09, there is no reason to be foolish. Handcuff = RB Darren Sproles (Note: Due to the touches he will get regardless, Sproles will likely go pretty early. If you do not want to waste an early pick on a handcuff, then consider grabbing RB Gartrell Johnson later.)

RB Clinton Portis (WAS): The Skins want to reduce his workload already, but despite how tough Portis is, he has missed some time due to injury. Handcuff = RB Ladell Betts.

RB Darren McFadden (OAK): The Raiders love to run the ball. And they want to make McFadden a focal point on offense. But McFadden has a slight build, is an upright runner, and missed quite a few games in 08 due to injuries. Handcuff = RB Michael Bush (Note: RB Justin Fargas is in the mix, too, so watch how the Raiders use these guys in camp.)

RB Thomas Jones (NYG): Jones had a surprisingly good year in 08. But he is past the 30-year old mark and he is unhappy with his contract. Plus he has a shaky QB situation. And he has a rookie RB breathing down his neck. Handcuff = RB Shonn Green. (Note: RB Leon Washington, much like Sproles and Felix Jones, already has a role in the offense, but I do not expect him to become the full-time RB if Jones goes down.)

RB Marshawn Lynch (BUF): Lynch is already scheduled to miss the first 3 games of the year due to an NFL-imposed suspension. Which makes drafting him fairly risky to begin with. But he should do well later in the year to make him attractive in the middle rounds of the draft. If nothing else, you will want a replacement for the first 3 games. Handcuff = RB Fred Jackson.

RB Larry Johnson (KC): No one really knows what to expect out of the Chiefs this year. New Coach. New GM. New QB. And a happy LJ? It’s hard to say how it will all work out, but we do know that LJ has had his fair share of injury issues in the past. Handcuff = RB Jamaal Charles.

RB Jamal Lewis (CLE): I am still surprised Lewis has an NFL career, at this point. It seems like he has been around forever, and I expected him to fade away awhile ago. And this may be the year it finally happens. Handcuff = RB James Davis.

RB Joseph Addai (IND): We all know about the struggles Addai had last year. And then the Colts went out and drafted a talented rookie RB. So if you roll the dice with Addai, you better be willing to spend a mid-round pick on insurance. Handcuff = RB Donald Brown.

RB Willie Parker (PIT): Parker has been slowly declining for the past couple of seasons, and missed significant time last year due to injuries. He is getting older and there is youth behind him. Handcuff = RB Rashard Mendenhall.

“Get Off My Lawn”

Inevitably, there are guys who are ranked highly before the draft who are all hype. Accordingly, here is a list of guys who I think are very overrated. I am not necessarily saying these guys will be terrible. Some of them will actually be very good. But I think they are overrated. Meaning it is highly probable that someone in your league will spend too much on them or draft them too high. And I have provided you with the names of some people who will likely produce about the same stats but have less hype.

QB Matt Ryan (ATL): The kid played well last year. He gave hope to the previously-hopeless Atlanta fans. But, if you look closely, his stats were pretty marginal. He threw for 3400 yards and 16 TDs, making him the 15th-ranked fantasy QB. Which means he would not even have been a weekly starter in a standard 12-team league. I think he will be better than that this year. But he will be on the fringe of being a weekly starter. And many experts have him ranked in the top-10 (ahead of guys like QB Matt Cassel and QB Donovan McNabb). Comparable Player:

QB Jay Cutler (CHI): Actually, many experts have him ranked about where I have him: As the 11th or 12th QB. But I had to include him on my list because I simply hate him. He is a mouth-breather with a bad attitude. And now he plays for the Bears. Who have no WRs. Cutler was great when he was throwing to WR Brandon Marshall, WR Eddie Royal, and TE Tony Scheffler. But he cannot replicate those numbers with guys like WR Devin Hester, WR Rashied Davis, and TE Greg Olsen. He will be a starter in most leagues, but do not expect him to post big numbers each week.

RB DeAngelo Williams (CAR): I have seen DeAngelo go very high in some mock drafts. And I simply do not understand why. Yes, I realize he was flat-out amazing in the second half of 2008. But he was very average in the first half. I just do not expect him to pick up where he left off. Beyond that, RB Jonathan Stewart is (allegedly) healthy and ready to carry more of the load. The Panthers do love to run the ball. But they also love to split carries — Even DeShaun Foster used to get a decent amount of touches. Bottom line: Anyone who expects Williams to get close to his from 2008 will be disappointed.

RB Maurice Jones-Drew (JAX): I know, I know. By putting both Williams and MJD on this list, it seems like I am just being a contrarian. But hear me out. Everyone just assumes that the Jags are going to give MJD 300 carries in 2009 because they gave him a huge contract and RB Fred Taylor is gone. But I disagree. MJD will continue to split carries with second-year RB Chauncey Washington and/or rookie RB Rashad Jennings (both of whom you have probably never heard of, but they are better than you think). However, MJD is a very effective goal line RB and a great receiver out of the backfield. So he will get his touches. But I do not consider him a top-3 player this year.

UPDATE (07/30/09): It should be noted that recently, I — ahem — moved MJD up my RB rankings to the, um, Top 3. So, I suppose you can disregard that last sentence. Initially, I was not that excited about MJD. But the more I look at the other guys in the Top 5, the more I like him. Maybe its the beer talking. But (for now) I like him at the top of the draft. I would even consider taking him first overall.

RB Darren McFadden (OAK): I am simply not a big fan of McFadden. I know the Raiders like to run the ball. And Al Davis just loves guys like McFadden. But the reality is, he is not a great RB. His legs are too skinny. The only guys who can run upright like he does are RB Adrian Peterson and Eric Dickerson. Sorry, but McFadden is not either one of those guys. Plus, QB Jamarcus Russell is entering bust territory. Which does not help his cause. Beyond that, I think RB Michael Bush is a threat to steal most of the goal line carries, if not some other carries.

WR Antonio Bryant (TB): Bryant has the talent, but I am not sure if he will produce the same numbers as last year. One issue is the QB situation in Tampa. Basically, they are just not that good. And I have a feeling they will have more than one starter during the year. Which is never good for a WR. I think Bryant will have a decent season, but he will not approach last year’s totals.

WR Chad Ochocinco (CIN): Is this guy serious? He has become a caricature of himself, it seems. He has talent, no doubt. And he has QB Carson Palmer back this year. Which will obviously help. I just think this guy is way too distracted to perform at a high level. It would not surprise me, however, if he did come back and play well. I just think the risk is too high. Plus, I think WR Chris Henry is primed to blow up. Which will provide Palmer with another (less dramatic) target.

WR Devin Hester (CHI): Hester is still learning the WR position. Which is not a good thing. He is ultra-quick and super-fast. But those two qualities do not a receiver make. He will get 50 or 60 catches, and probably catch a few bombs from QB Jay Cutler for touchdowns. But he will also have a few games where he registers zero catches and zero yards. Because you have to get open to get passes thrown your way.