Updated Rankings

I updated all my rankings — including Busts and Sleepers today.

So check them out — by clicking on the individual links below or by going to the Player Rankings page.

QB Rankings

RB Rankings

WR Rankings

TE Rankings

Sleepers

Busts

Preseason Injury Updates

Here are some notable injuries to be aware of as you draft your teams and/or scour the waiver wires after your drafts:

QB Kurt Warner (ARI): Warner is old and has a hip issue. Although his hip is reportedly getting better, it is still a concern.

QB Carson Palmer (CIN): Palmer missed nearly all of 2008 with an elbow injury, only to injure his ankle upon his return to the field in 2009. I do not expect either to be very serious, but it would be nice to see him play a little more before the real action begins.

QB Drew Brees (NO): Thankfully, Brees is not hurt. But his starting LT Jamaal Brown is. Which does impact Brees’ value. Brees is still a top-ranked fantasy QB, but this might be enough to bump QB Tom Brady above him.

QB Brett Favre (MIN): Favre ended 2008 on a down note due to a bum shoulder. He seems to be ready to go this year, but keep an eye on him and see how he feels after throwing a few passes.

RB Jonathan Stewart (CAR): The most recent reports say that Stewart will miss the rest of the preseason due to a lingering achilles injury. This is bad news for Stewart but very good news for RB DeAngelo Williams, who would benefit immensely from the absence of Stewart.

RB Brian Westbrook (PHI): Westbrook had offseason ankle surgery, and is likely recovering from any number of other injuries he sustained in 2008. Many think 2009 could be the end of the line for Westbrook, but he is a tough player and will not go away easily. But do pay attention to his injury status, because RB LeSean McCoy is lurking in the shadows waiting for his chance to shine.

RB Pierre Thomas (NO): Thomas suffered a minor sprain to his MCL recently, but should be fine by the time week 1 rolls around.

RB Reggie Bush (NO): Bush is reportedly going to see his first action in the next preseason game after missing time due to various injuries. Which is nothing new for Bush.

RB Knowshon Moreno (DEN): After all the hype and the holdout, all Moreno did was get injured. When healthy, he should get enough touches in DEN to make him a borderline RB2. Keep an eye on his knee.

RB Beanie Wells (ARI): Another rookie with some hype was Wells. But no one was surprised when he hurt his ankle on the first day of camp. Wells has dealt with injury issues throughout his career. So it is worth seeing how quickly he recovers.

RB Marshawn Lynch (BUF): Lynch is not injured, but he will miss the first 3 games of the season due to a suspension. If RB Fred Jackson (see below) is healthy, he should get the carries. Otherwise, RB Xavier Omon could get some extra work, along with RB Dominic Rhodes.

RB Fred Jackson (BUF): Jackson has been dealing with a wrist injury and recently left practice due to a thumb injury. It is not yet clear how serious either one is, but since Lynch will miss some time, it is worth following his progress.

WR Calvin Johnson (DET): Johnson returned to practice recently after missing some time with a thumb injury. I think he should be fine for the regular season. If not, he could still probably put up 1000 yards with one hand.

WR Terrell Owens (BUF): Owens will miss another preseason game with a sore toe. Which is not good. Foot/toe injuries have a way of lingering and causing problems all year. Hopefully this one is not serious.

WR Antonio Bryant (TB): Bryant added to the long list of question marks hovering over him heading into 2009 when he injured his meniscus. He could be ready by week 1, but the timetable for his return is not clear. I was already avoiding him, so this does not help his cause.

WR Donnie Avery (STL): Avery suffered a foot injury early in camp, but the reports are that he is on the road to recovery. He could have a very good year, but there are a lot of question marks in STL, including the OL and the QB.

WR Chaz Schilens (OAK): Schilens was rocketing up draft boards (which was easy, since he started near the bottom) and was on everyone’s sleeper lists, and then he broke a bone in his foot and had to have surgery. He will miss the first couple games of the season, but should be back eventually and ready to make an impact.

WR Nate Washington (TEN): Washington injured his hamstring and will miss the remaining 2 preseason games. Which is unfortunate, because it seemed like TEN was working on getting him more involved in the offense.

WR Mike Sims-Walker (JAX): Walker is another sleeper candidate who cannot seem to get on the field and prove he is worthy of a late-round pick. I still like his potential, but he needs to show me something before I waste a pick on him rather than someone else — like his teammate WR Troy Williamson, who is playing well in place of Sims-Walker in the lineup.

WR Michael Crabtree (SF): Crabtree is not injured (that I know of), he is simply being a complete idiot and not signing a contract. Obviously, if he is not under contract, he will not play. So you draft him at your own risk.

That is all I have for now. I am sure I missed someone, or someone else will get injured. So check back for injury updates as we get closer to the regular season.

Stock Down

Often times, there are guys who look bad in the preseason. But this does not always mean they will play poorly when the regular season arrives. Either way, they usually see their draft stock drop. Some of them become great values. Others become busts. Either way, here is a list of guys who have seen their draft stock take a hit lately.

QB Drew Brees (NO): Brees lost LT Jamaal Brown for a couple months with a sports hernia. Brees is still an excellent QB and should end up as one of the top-scoring fantasy QBs, but his value drops a little without his LT. On top of that, RB Reggie Bush is perpetually injured and RB Pierre Thomas was recently diagnosed with an MCL sprain.

RB Julius Jones (SEA): The news out of SEA is that they signed RB Edgerrin James. This is not a good sign for Jones, who has not had much success in SEA so far. James is old and likely will not be all effective on the field. But he will be effective at cutting into Jones’ carries.

RB Jamal Lewis (CLE): I have said before that I predict rookie RB James Davis will take over for Lewis at some point this year. And Lewis is doing nothing to prove me wrong. He has looked very marginal this preseason, and is averaging 2.9 yards per carry. Davis, on the other hand, has looked pretty good, rushing for 121 yards and a TD on only 14 carries.

RB Reggie Bush (NO): He has battled injuries his whole career, and it is becoming clear that he is not the super-special player many thought he could be coming out of USC. RB Pierre Thomas is working his way into the mix and figures to be a very big part of the NO offense this year. If Bush can stay healthy (which is a big if), he should put up respectable numbers. But he is a huge injury risk and is very inconsistent even when he is on the field.

WR Dwayne Bowe (KC): I still think Bowe will be a solid WR1 this season, but it does not help when he is demoted and working with a new QB who has been up and down. Sometimes it is good when guys like Bowe struggle in the preseason, though, because you can get them at a great value on draft day.

WR Chaz Schilens (OAK): No sooner than I hit “publish” on my recent post regarding Schilens, it seemed like he went down with a food injury. He is expected to miss the first couple of games, but should be fine after that. So, since his stock is down due to his injury, you can probably get him at a great value late in your draft. He should still do pretty well once he returns from his injury.

WR Davone Bess (MIA): Fellow rookie WR Brian Hartline has been practicing with the 1st team offense in MIA. Hartline is a 4th round pick from Ohio State, and is more of a possession WR. I like Bess still, but this obviously hurts his value.

WR Michael Crabtree (SF): High expectations cannot be reached if you are not on the field. No wonder this kid slid so far in the draft.

WR Calvin Johnson (DET): We all knew about the QB issues, but then he had to go and hurt his thumb. I am not worried about the injury itself. I just would have preferred that he get more practice time in with the QBs. No matter what, Johnson is a beast. But I am less confident in his ability to post superb fantasy numbers if he has a rookie under center.

WR Mike Sims-Walker (JAX): Formerly just “Mike Walker”, this potential sleeper at WR is struggling to get on the field in the preseason, after battling injuries last year, as well. And while he has been out, former bust WR Troy Williamson is shining. I still think Sims-Walker will be worthy of a late-round pick, but he needs to get on the field and prove it.

QB Rankings: Updated

I have updated my QB Rankings. Here is my top 10:

1. Drew Brees (NO)
2. Tom Brady (NE)
3. Peyton Manning (IND)
4. Aaron Rodgers (GB)
5. Tony Romo (DAL)
6. Donovan McNabb (PHI)
7. Matt Ryan (ATL)
8. Kurt Warner (ARI)
9. Matt Schaub (HOU)
10. Philip Rivers (SD)

And here is the rest of the list…

Should I draft Michael Turner?

There is quite a debate over RB Michael Turner. Some think he should be the number one pick, while I have talked to others who think he should drop to the second round.

What do I think? Well, I think you should pick in somewhere in the middle of those two. And, at some point in the convoluted mess below, I explain why.

Turner blew up in 2008 with 1699 yards rushing and 17 TDs. And he returns in 2009 with an improved QB in second-year QB Matt Ryan, no major injury concerns, and relatively little wear on those tree-like legs (only 598 total carries in the NFL).

So, he should be one of the top RBs heading into 2009, right? Well, yes and no.

I think Turner will end up being a top 10 RB, but whether he will be a top 5 RB is questionable. I have Turner ranked as the 4th RB (behind RB Adrian Peterson, RB Matt Forte, and RB Maurice Jones-Drew). But to be entirely honest, I would rank RB Steven Jackson above him but for S-Jax’s injury issues. And I like RB Chris Johnson more, but I cannot rank him up there due to RB LenDale White‘s tendency to vulture his TDs. And I could go on. But my point is, Turner does present some risks. So, although I have him ranked 4th among RBs, there are definitely some issues to be aware of if you are considering taking him with your first round pick.

Many other fantasy experts cite the so-called “Curse of 370” — which basically says that any RB who has more than 370 carries in a given year is all but guaranteed to have a drop-off in (fantasy) production in the following season. In fact, only the aforementioned fantasy God LT has avoided the Curse of 370. In 2002, LT had 372 carries. But LT went on to score more fantasy points in 2003. But other than LT in 2002-2003, every other RB in the history of the NFL has done worse in the year following his 370-plus carries. (I have yet to see any analysis, however, on how many total carries the RB has in his career prior to the dropoff. LT was young when he had his 370-carry season, so it is not all that surprising that he kept going. Others were much older.)

So, we should expect a decline in production then, right? Well, yes and no. I am not usually one to argue with that kinda body of evidence. However, it is worth noting that Turner only had 228 carries before his arrival in ATL. And can we really believe that Turner is destined to fail while AP — who had 363 carries — is safe because he was 7 carries short of 370 in the regular season?

Hard to say. But a curse is a Curse, right? Well, yes and no.

I do expect Turner to see a decline in production. But it has very little to do with the Curse. I believe his production will decline for three very simple reasons: (1) His schedule is tougher, (2) ATL will limit his carries, and (3) QB Matt Ryan will be better.

(1) Fewer Carries: ATL will likely reduce Turner’s workload in 2009 in order to prolong his career. I am predicting they will give him the ball around 325 times. So, even if he averages 4.5 YPC again, he will gain less than 1500 rushing yards.

(2) Tougher Schedule: Based on traditional scoring (i.e. 10 yds = 1 pt, TD = 6 pts.), Turner scored  265 points in 2008. However, a closer examination of how he scored those points reveals that he piled up most of those points against some very weak defenses. In fact, Turner scored 198 of those points in 8 games. Which means he only scored 67 points in the other 8 games.

In the 8 games when Turner scored only 67 points (average = 8.4), he faced defenses with an average rush defense ranked 11.8. In the 8 games when Turner scored the other 198 points (average = 24.5), he faced teams with an average rush defense ranked 26.8. (Remember, there are only 32 teams… So those teams were pretty bad.) You do not have to look at these figures long before you realize that Turner piled up most of his fantasy points against very poor defenses.

Not only does this concern me because his 2009 schedule is tougher, but it also concerns me because Turner was very inconsistent, especially early in the season. In 4 of his first 8 games, he scored 5 or fewer points. In his second 8 games, however, Turner scored at least 10 points in each game, including 13 points against the #1 ranked MIN rush defense in week 16 (the championship game for many leagues). So at least he was putting up solid scores towards the end of the year. But the fact that he had so many stinker games is cause for concern. (For the sake of comparison, AP scored 5 or fewer points only 1 time in 2008.)

Overall, in 2008 Turner faced teams with an average rush defense rank of 19.3. And he only faced 4 teams — MIN (1st), PHI (4th), CHI (5th), and SD (11th) — that were ranked in the top half of the league in rush defense (although, as you can see, 3 were ranked in the top 5). In the 4 games against defenses ranked in the top half, Turner averaged 8.3 points. In the 3 games against teams in the top 5, Turner averaged 7.7 points.

However, Turner’s schedule in 2009 is much different. First, let me say that I realize defenses can change dramatically from year to year. But since we have no other way to measure them, I will look at last year’s stats and rankings. So, below is a chart (of sorts) that compares Turner’s 2008 schedule with his 2009 schedule:

Average Rank
2008 = 19.3
2009 = 13.6

Ranked in Top Half
2008 = 4
2009 = 9

Ranked in Top 10
2008 = 3
2009 = 6

Ranked in Top 5
2008 = 3
2009 = 2

Ranked in Bottom 10
2008 = 6
2009 = 0

Ranked in Bottom 5
2008 = 4
2009 = 0

The ones that stick out to me the most are the number of teams ranked in the Bottom 10 and Bottom 5 each year. In 2008, Turner faced 6 teams in the Bottom 10, 3 of which were in the Bottom 5. However, Turner does not face a single team that is ranked in the Bottom 10 in 2009. And Turner scored over half of his total points (137 / 265 = 52%) in these 6 games in 2008.

(3) QB Matt Ryan will be better. This goes right along with (1) above — If Ryan is better, ATL can give Turner fewer carries and rely on the passing game more. Ryan is quickly on his way to being a very good NFL QB. So I think ATL will open up the playbook for him a little more this year.

So, what does this all mean? Who knows. No one can predict the future. But I will say this: I think the Curse of 370 is overblown in this case. However, you can expect to see Turner get fewer carries, have a lower YPC average, and score fewer TDs in 2009.

Which means, curse or no curse, he will be less a less productive fantasy player. (Just in case you missed that.)

Please comment and let me know what you think…

17 Crazy Predictions

Here are 17 crazy (and/or not so crazy) predictions for the 2009 fantasy season that I — um, predict — will come true.

Why 17, you ask? Because that is all I could think of…

1. QB Philip Rivers will not be among the top 10 fantasy QBs at the end of the year.

2. QB Matt Ryan will be.

3. WR Larry Fitzgerald will miss at least one game. (I believe in the Madden Curse.)

4. QB Kurt Warner will miss at least one game. (I believe in reality.)

5. RB Adrian Peterson will score at least 15 total TDs.

6. RB DeAngelo Williams will not score more than 15 total TDs.

7. Rookie RB James Davis will take over for RB Jamal Lewis by week 10.

8. The top 3 fantasy QBs will be QB Drew Brees, QB Tom Brady, and QB Aaron Rodgers.

9. RB Michael Turner will score less than 10 points in at least 4 games.

10. TE Vernon Davis will be a top-10 fantasy TE.

11. WR Randy Moss will be a top-5 fantasy WR.

12. At least 5 rookies will score more points fantasy than WR Percy Harvin.

13. RB Ryan Grant will finish as a top-10 fantasy RB.

14. The top scoring fantasy WR will be WR Andre Johnson.

15. RB Ray Rice will be the highest scoring fantasy RB in BAL.

16. RB LaDainian Tomlinson will finish as a top-10 fantasy RB.

17. WR Devin Hester will not have more than 800 yards receiving.

Should I really draft a guy named Chaz?

UPDATE: As you may already know, WR Chaz Schilens broke a bone in his foot during practice. He is expected to miss the rest of the preseason and his availability for Week 1 is in doubt. This obviously hurts his fantasy value, but he is still worth a late-round pick in most drafts.

UPDATE No. 2: Schilens had surgery on his foot and is now out 4-6 weeks. If you have room on your bench, he is still worth a late-round pick in your draft, because he should be productive once he returns after the first couple weeks of the season. If you do not have a roster spot to waste on an injured sleeper WR, then keep an eye on his recovery progress and try to grab him off waivers a week or so before he is ready to return.

———————-

Yes. But not until late in your draft. People will probably laugh at you. But you will get the last laugh when he starts posting solid numbers.

Raiders WR Chaz Schilens looked pretty good in last night’s preseason game against the Cowboys. He ended up with 5 catches for 52 yards, and was targeted by QB Jamarcus Russell 4 times on the first drive. Schilens also drew a 47-yard pass interference penalty that set up a Raiders FG. Obviously you do not get fantasy points for PI penalties, but it shows that Russell was looking for him downfield.

Schilens is a second-year player out of San Diego State who has great size (6-4, 225). He only had 15 catches last year, but he had 6 catches for 98 yards and 2 TDs in weeks 16 and 17.

Schilens is nothing more than a late-round sleeper prospect, but if he continues to be Russell’s favorite target, he is worthy of a pick in your draft. Speedsters WR Darrius Heyward-Bey and WR Johnnie Lee Higgins might catch a few bombs now and then, but they will probably be too inconsistent. Schilens, however, appears to be a solid possession WR who has the size to also be a redzone threat.

And speaking of the Raiders, Russell looked competent as a QB. He finished 6-9 for 50 yards, which is not overly impressive, but he looked calm in the pocket. I would not suggest drafting him as a QB2 or anything, but it does bode well for guys like Schilens, TE Zach Miller, and the rest of the offense. Because if Russell plays poorly, the offense will stall.

Training Camp Position Battles

All 32 NFL teams are now in training camp. Which means there are plenty of position battles that you should be aware of as your fantasy draft approaches. I wrote about some NFC and AFC position battles a couple weeks ago, but I thought it would be worthwhile to update them now that camps are in full-swing. I did not include much (read: any) discussion of the battles. I just listed them so you can be aware. I did, however, list them in the order I expect the final depth charts to reflect. Check back as training camps progress to get updates on the key camp battles that will affect your fantasy draft.

AFC North
BAL RB: Ray Rice v. Willis McGahee v. Le’Ron McClain
CIN QB: Carson Palmer v. His Elbow
CLE RB: Jamal Lewis v. James Davis v. Jerome Harrison
PIT RB: Willie Parker v. Rashard Mendenhall v. Mewelde Moore

AFC South
IND RB: Joseph Addai v. Donald Brown
IND WR3: Pierre Garcon v. Austin Collie
JAX RB2: Chauncey Washington v. Rashad Jennings v. Greg Jones
TEN WR: Nate Washington v. Justin Gage

AFC East
MIA WR2: Greg Camarillo v. Devon Bess
NE RB: Fred Taylor v. Sammy Morris v. Kevin Faulk v. Laurence Maroney
NYJ RB: Thomas Jones v. Shonn Green v. Leon Washington
NYJ QB: Mark Sanchez v. Kellen Clemens

AFC West
DEN RB: Knowshon Moreno v. Correll Buckhalter v. Peyton Hillis v. Ryan Torain
KC RB: Larry Johnson v. Jamaal Charles v. Kolby Smith
SD WR2: Chris Chambers v. Malcolm Floyd v. Buster Davis
OAK RB: Darren McFadden v. Michael Bush v. Justin Fargas

NFC North
CHI WR1: Devin Hester v. Earl Bennet v. Rashied Davis
DET QB: Dante Culpeper v. Matthew Stafford
GB WR3: James Jones v. Jordy Nelson
GB TE: Jermichael Finley v. Donald Lee
MIN QB: Sage Rosenfels v. Tavaris Jackson
MIN WR2: Sidney Rice v. Percey Harvin

NFC South
NO WR2: Lance Moore v. Robert Meachem
NO WR3: Robert Meachem v. Devery Henderson
TB QB: Byron Leftwich v. Josh Freeman v. Luke McCown
TB RB: Earnest Graham v. Derrick Ward
TB WR2: Michael Clayton v. Maurice Stovall

NFC East
NYG RB2: Ahmad Bradshaw v. Andre Brown v. Danny Ware
DAL WR2: Patrick Crayton v. Austin Miles v. Sam Hurd
NYG WR: Dominic Hixon v. Steve Smith v. Mario Manningham v. Hakeem Nicks v. Ramses Barden
NYG WR2: Steve Smith v. Mario Manningham v. Hakeem Nicks v. Ramses Barden
PHI WR2: Kevin Curtis v. Jeremy Maclin
WAS WR2: Devin Thomas v. Antwaan Randle-El v. Malcolm Kelley

NFC West
AR RB: Tim Hightower v. Beanie Wells
SF QB: Shaun Hill v. Alex Smith
STL WR2: Laurent Robinson v. Keenan Burton

RB Handcuffs

You have all heard the term “handcuff” before when referring to fantasy football players and their backups. Generally, I am not a huge fan of automatically drafting a “handcuff” for your starter, but there are situations when it can be valuable.

I would only recommend drafting a handcuff if you are drafting a RB with a high (e.g. first 3 or 4 rounds) who is (1) injury-prone and (2) plays in a high-powered offense. For example, I would recommend grabbing Westbrook’s backup, because he is injury prone and the Eagles’ offense is very good. Conversely, I would not recommend grabbing RB Steven Jackson‘s handcuff, because he will not perform at anywhere near the same level. My point is this: Do not waste a pick by automatically selecting a handcuff for each of your RBs. There are more valuable players out there in many situations.

For your 2009 fantasy football draft, I would recommend the following handcuffs if you draft any of these players:

RB Adrian Peterson (MIN): Peterson accounts for a large percentage of the Viking offense. And it is reasonable to assume that if AP goes down, RB Chester Taylor will assume a similar role. Grabbing Taylor as a handcuff for AP can be tough, though, since Taylor gets enough touches on his own to make him worth drafting late. But it is always worthwhile to protect your investment in a guy like AP, who gets a lot of touches and thus is more exposed to potential injuries.

RB Brian Westbrook (PHI): Westbrook is old and about to breakdown. Or so everyone (including me) says. He could very well prove us all wrong this year, and avoid any injuries. But he is a risk. Handcuff = RB LeSean McCoy.

RB Maurice Jones-Drew (JAX): I do not consider MJD to be injury-prone, but any time a guy increases his workload in a significant way, you have to also consider him an increased risk to get injured. And the Jags like to make their RBs the focal point of their offense, so his backup should still do fairly well.  The only problem is, right now we are not entirely sure who that is going to be. Keep an eye on this situation throughout camp. Potential Handcuff(s) = FB Greg Jones, RB Chauncey Washington, and RB Rashad Jennings.

RB Brandon Jacobs (NYG): Jacobs is a bruiser. And although he usually doles out more punishment than he receives, you can almost guarantee he will miss time in 09 with a nagging injury. However, much like the Jags, it is not clear yet who would be the primary ball carrier if Jacobs goes down. Keep an eye on the battle for his backup during camp. Potential Handcuff(s) = RB Ahmad Bradshaw, RB Danny Ware, and RB Andre Brown.

RB Marion Barber (DAL): Although Barber did miss some time last year due to injury, I do not consider him injury prone. However, due to his running style, it is always a possibility. Handcuff = RB Tashard Choice (Note: I do not consider RB Felix Jones to be a handcuff for Barber, because I think Jones will be used differently in the offense.)

RB LaDainian Tomlinson (SD): As we all know, LT is getting older. And last year showed us that he is, in fact, human. Although I do expect him to have a better year in 09, there is no reason to be foolish. Handcuff = RB Darren Sproles (Note: Due to the touches he will get regardless, Sproles will likely go pretty early. If you do not want to waste an early pick on a handcuff, then consider grabbing RB Gartrell Johnson later.)

RB Clinton Portis (WAS): The Skins want to reduce his workload already, but despite how tough Portis is, he has missed some time due to injury. Handcuff = RB Ladell Betts.

RB Darren McFadden (OAK): The Raiders love to run the ball. And they want to make McFadden a focal point on offense. But McFadden has a slight build, is an upright runner, and missed quite a few games in 08 due to injuries. Handcuff = RB Michael Bush (Note: RB Justin Fargas is in the mix, too, so watch how the Raiders use these guys in camp.)

RB Thomas Jones (NYG): Jones had a surprisingly good year in 08. But he is past the 30-year old mark and he is unhappy with his contract. Plus he has a shaky QB situation. And he has a rookie RB breathing down his neck. Handcuff = RB Shonn Green. (Note: RB Leon Washington, much like Sproles and Felix Jones, already has a role in the offense, but I do not expect him to become the full-time RB if Jones goes down.)

RB Marshawn Lynch (BUF): Lynch is already scheduled to miss the first 3 games of the year due to an NFL-imposed suspension. Which makes drafting him fairly risky to begin with. But he should do well later in the year to make him attractive in the middle rounds of the draft. If nothing else, you will want a replacement for the first 3 games. Handcuff = RB Fred Jackson.

RB Larry Johnson (KC): No one really knows what to expect out of the Chiefs this year. New Coach. New GM. New QB. And a happy LJ? It’s hard to say how it will all work out, but we do know that LJ has had his fair share of injury issues in the past. Handcuff = RB Jamaal Charles.

RB Jamal Lewis (CLE): I am still surprised Lewis has an NFL career, at this point. It seems like he has been around forever, and I expected him to fade away awhile ago. And this may be the year it finally happens. Handcuff = RB James Davis.

RB Joseph Addai (IND): We all know about the struggles Addai had last year. And then the Colts went out and drafted a talented rookie RB. So if you roll the dice with Addai, you better be willing to spend a mid-round pick on insurance. Handcuff = RB Donald Brown.

RB Willie Parker (PIT): Parker has been slowly declining for the past couple of seasons, and missed significant time last year due to injuries. He is getting older and there is youth behind him. Handcuff = RB Rashard Mendenhall.

TE Rankings

My TE Rankings are (finally) up for your 2009 fantasy draft preparation. No real surprises here. Some other people have Gonzo ranked above Witten. But I think Witten is going to have a great year now that TO is gone. Before he and Romo got injured last year, he was having an unreal year. Even with the injuries, he stil had a great year. I think he stays healthy in 09 and is far and away the best TE.

Here are my top 10 TEs:

1. Jason Witten (DAL)
2. Antonio Gates (SD)
3. Tony Gonzalez (ATL)
4. Greg Olsen (CHI)
5. Dallas Clark (IND)
6. Owen Daniels (HOU)
7. Chris Cooley (WAS)
8. . John Carlson (SEA)
9. Kellen Winslow (TB)
10. Zach Miller (OAK)

Click here for the rest of the TE Rankings.