Undrafted Watch List

I had a couple drafts this weekend, and now that they are over, I noticed that there are some players available on waivers that you should keep an eye on as the season starts. If they start to perform, add them to your roster.

RB Mike Goodson (CAR): Goodson is in a great situation, because CAR has a great OL and they love to run the ball. Unfortunately, he is stuck behind two very good (and productive) RBs. However, since RB Jonathan Stewart cannot seem to stay on the field, Goodson has some value. Because CAR runs too much to give all the touches to one RB.

RB Glenn Coffee (SF): He is burried behind RB Frank Gore, which means his touches will be limited. But if Gore misses any time, Coffee could be very productive. And since Gore has been known to miss a few games now and then, make sure you keep an eye on Coffee.

RB Bernard Scott (CIN): Scott has looked better than expected in the preseason. But CIN seems intent on giving RB Cedric Benson his shot. I actually think Benson could do well this year. But if/when he falters, consider adding Scott.

RB Chauncey Washington (JAX): Although no official announcement has been made, it seems as though Washington has the lead in the race for RB2 in JAX. Obviously, RB Maurice Jones-Drew will get most of the touches. But someone has to share the load.

RB Javon Ringer (TEN): The backfield in TEN is already very crowded. But Ringer has looked good in the preseason, and could work his way into the rotation. However, unless RB Chris Johnson or RB LenDale White get injured, his value is pretty limited.

WR James Jones (GB): Jones has a lot of talent, but has been limited by injuries. However, he is healthy this year, and looks to assume the role of the WR3 in GB. QB Aaron Rodgers looks very sharp, and Jones could end up putting up some solid numbers against favorable matchups.

WR Austin Collie (IND): Everyone seemed to jump on the WR Pierre Garcon bandwagon early and forgot about Collie. But he is very much still in the gameplan for IND. At this point, I am not sure either one is worth a roster spot, but when it becomes clear which one will get more looks, they are probably worth picking up.

WR Louis Murphy (OAK): All the attention in OAK seems to be focused on rookie WR Darius Heyward-Bey and second-year sleeper WR Chaz Schilens. However, since DHB is not really, you know, very good, and Schilens is on the sidelines nursing an injured foot, Murphy has gotten a chance to shine. And he has done pretty well. I am not sure if it is really worth owning any WR in OAK, but see how Murphy does as the season starts. He could be surprisingly productive.

WR Marko Mitchell (WAS): If you want to impress your friends/enemies with a super-duper-hella-deep sleeper, toss out the name “Marko Mitchell”. He was a 7th round pick this year, and is not even a lock to make the final roster. But if he does make it, keep an eye on him. The WAS WRs have been less than impressive, so there is a chance that Mitchell could work his way up if he continues to play well.

WR Miles Austin (DAL): With WR Roy Williams getting injured — and really not looking all that impressive in the preseason — there is room for some other WRs to get some extra attention from QB Tony Romo. Austin has played well and could end up getting enough looks to make him worth adding to your roster.

WR Brian Hartline (MIA): Most people thought the battle for the starting WR opposite WR Ted Ginn was between WR Greg Camarillo and WR Davone Bess, but Hartline has been playing with the 1st team offense for a week or 2, and it seems just as likely that he will end up the starter as it does either of the others will win the job. Although the passing game in MIA is nothing to get too excited about, Hartline could be a sneaky sleeper if he wins the job.

WR Mike Thomas (JAX): Unfortunately, Thomas has been limited by a hamstring injury during the preseason. So it’s hard to tell whether he will be an effective WR at this level. But the competition for looks in JAX is not all that impressive, so if he can get healthy, there is an opportunity to work his way into the lineup as a slot WR. He is very quick/fast with the ball in his hands.

WR Deon Butler (SEA): The SEA running game is not going to scare anyone. And QB Matt Hasselbeck is healthy, which means SEA will likely throw the ball a lot. Butler is a rookie, but runs good routes and has great quickness. He could begin to get enough looks to make him worth a roster spot.

TE Jermichael Finley (TE): Finley has been very productive in the preseason, and GB keeps finding ways to get him the ball. Against ARI, he lined up at WR and caught a TD on a nice fade pass from QB Aaron Rodgers, beating CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie. He is a matchup nightmare, and could end up scoring quite a few TDs this year.

TE Visanthe Shiancoe (MIN): I am surprised that he is going undrafted in many leagues. He was a top-5 TE in 2008, and now has a QB who often looks to his TEs in the red zone.

I am confident that in the world of internal medicine, my intellectual curiosity will never be idle.

Do Not Draft List

So, I (finally) have my first draft this weekend. It is a live auction draft with a group of friends, so it should be fun. As I finalize my rankings and prepare for the draft, I like to make a “Do Not Draft List” with all the guys I am going to avoid at all costs. Most of these guys I want to avoid because I think they are too risky — i.e. they will either bust or get injured. Some of them, I simply do not like.

DO NOT DRAFT

QB Kurt Warner (ARI): Age, injury history, and, well, that’s pretty much it.

QB Eli Manning (NYG): Mouthbreather.

QB Brett Favre (MIN): Traitor.

QB Mike Vick (PHI): He will miss the first part of the season. And he is a backup QB. I still do not get whey people are drafting him.

QB Pat White (MIA): Again: Backup QB. 3rd string, even. Yes, I realize he will run the Wildcat. So, put him in at QB one week. And enjoy losing your game. You would be better off with QB Brady Quinn as your starting QB.

RB Brian Westbrook (PHI): Everyone is convinced that this is the year he falls apart. Which means he will probably blow up. So, I guess you can thank me.

RB Thomas Jones (NJY): Career year last year. Career-ending year this year?

RB Jamal Lewis (CLE): He’s had a nice run. But I think he is phased out this year in favor of RB James Davis.

RB Joseph Addai (IND): He could do well. Or he could get replaced by RB Donald Brown. I am not taking the risk.

RB Willie Parker (PIT): Oh, FWP, we’ve had some good times. But, seriously, now it’s time for you to leave.

RB Derrick Ward (TB): He is sharing the job with RB Earnest Graham and RB Cadillac Williams. And Ward will find that life is a lot tougher when not running behind the NYG OL.

RB Jonathan Stewart (CAR): He has to prove he can stay healthy before I add him to my roster.

WR Larry Fitzgerald (ARI): Call me silly or call me stupid, but I am a believer in the Madden Curse.

WR Terrell Owens (BUF): Toe injuries scare me. And so does the OL in BUF.

WR Michael Crabtree (SF): His hubris is unreal.

WR Brandon Marshall (DEN): Extremely talented. Extremely stupid.

WR Antonio Bryant (TB): No way he has back-to-back monster years. Especially not with those QBs.

WR Devin Hester (CHI): He is not a WR. I repeat: He is not a WR.

Updated Rankings

I updated all my rankings — including Busts and Sleepers today.

So check them out — by clicking on the individual links below or by going to the Player Rankings page.

QB Rankings

RB Rankings

WR Rankings

TE Rankings

Sleepers

Busts

Stock Down

Often times, there are guys who look bad in the preseason. But this does not always mean they will play poorly when the regular season arrives. Either way, they usually see their draft stock drop. Some of them become great values. Others become busts. Either way, here is a list of guys who have seen their draft stock take a hit lately.

QB Drew Brees (NO): Brees lost LT Jamaal Brown for a couple months with a sports hernia. Brees is still an excellent QB and should end up as one of the top-scoring fantasy QBs, but his value drops a little without his LT. On top of that, RB Reggie Bush is perpetually injured and RB Pierre Thomas was recently diagnosed with an MCL sprain.

RB Julius Jones (SEA): The news out of SEA is that they signed RB Edgerrin James. This is not a good sign for Jones, who has not had much success in SEA so far. James is old and likely will not be all effective on the field. But he will be effective at cutting into Jones’ carries.

RB Jamal Lewis (CLE): I have said before that I predict rookie RB James Davis will take over for Lewis at some point this year. And Lewis is doing nothing to prove me wrong. He has looked very marginal this preseason, and is averaging 2.9 yards per carry. Davis, on the other hand, has looked pretty good, rushing for 121 yards and a TD on only 14 carries.

RB Reggie Bush (NO): He has battled injuries his whole career, and it is becoming clear that he is not the super-special player many thought he could be coming out of USC. RB Pierre Thomas is working his way into the mix and figures to be a very big part of the NO offense this year. If Bush can stay healthy (which is a big if), he should put up respectable numbers. But he is a huge injury risk and is very inconsistent even when he is on the field.

WR Dwayne Bowe (KC): I still think Bowe will be a solid WR1 this season, but it does not help when he is demoted and working with a new QB who has been up and down. Sometimes it is good when guys like Bowe struggle in the preseason, though, because you can get them at a great value on draft day.

WR Chaz Schilens (OAK): No sooner than I hit “publish” on my recent post regarding Schilens, it seemed like he went down with a food injury. He is expected to miss the first couple of games, but should be fine after that. So, since his stock is down due to his injury, you can probably get him at a great value late in your draft. He should still do pretty well once he returns from his injury.

WR Davone Bess (MIA): Fellow rookie WR Brian Hartline has been practicing with the 1st team offense in MIA. Hartline is a 4th round pick from Ohio State, and is more of a possession WR. I like Bess still, but this obviously hurts his value.

WR Michael Crabtree (SF): High expectations cannot be reached if you are not on the field. No wonder this kid slid so far in the draft.

WR Calvin Johnson (DET): We all knew about the QB issues, but then he had to go and hurt his thumb. I am not worried about the injury itself. I just would have preferred that he get more practice time in with the QBs. No matter what, Johnson is a beast. But I am less confident in his ability to post superb fantasy numbers if he has a rookie under center.

WR Mike Sims-Walker (JAX): Formerly just “Mike Walker”, this potential sleeper at WR is struggling to get on the field in the preseason, after battling injuries last year, as well. And while he has been out, former bust WR Troy Williamson is shining. I still think Sims-Walker will be worthy of a late-round pick, but he needs to get on the field and prove it.

Stock Up

It’s tough to predict much based on the preseason. Most top players only get a few series per game, and even then it is hard to tell much. But there are some players who look very sharp, and as a result, they see their fantasy draft stock rise. Here is a list of players who are looking very good and are moving up draft boards.

QB Aaron Rodgers (GB): Rodgers has looked very sharp in the preseason and I am confident that he will end the season as one of the top fantasy players. If he continues to look this sharp, it is going to be hard to keep him out of the top 3 QBs in the rankings.

QB Tony Romo (DAL): Just in case you forgot, Romo is a very good QB. WR Terrell Owens certainly made him better, but Romo will still do very well even without TO. He has looked good so far and should play very well this year, despite the fact that DAL wants to focus on the running game more.

QB Matt Hasselbeck (SEA): After a miserable 2008 season marred by injuries all across the board, Hasselbeck has looked very sharp this year. Besides being healthy, Hasselbeck is now throwing to newly-acquired WR TJ Houshmandzadeh, a healthy (for now) WR Deion Branch, and impressive rookie WR Deon Butler. Plus, second-year TE John Carlson looks to build on a solid rookie campaign. I do not expect Hasselbeck to be among the top-scoring fantasy QBs, but he does present a very nice value in the later rounds as a backup who could post solid numbers in favorable matchups.

RB DeAngelo Williams (CAR): Count me among the skeptics. And by that, I mean I am not one who expects DeAngelo to continue his unreal performance to end 2008. However, I am reconsidering that position, because DeAngelo has looked very good this preseason, and RB Jonathan Stewart cannot seem to stay healthy, which is an issue he has dealt with since his college days in Oregon. If Stewart’s injury issues continue, DeAngelo’s stock goes way up. But even if he returns, I think we can expect DeAngelo to do quite well in 2009.

RB Darren McFadden (OAK): Obviously, McFadden is not going to average 8.5 YPC all year. But that is what he is doing in the preseason. Which shows that he has big-play ability. I am still worried about him as a full-time RB, but OAK runs the ball enough and will use him out of the backfield as a receiver to allow him to post pretty solid fantasy numbers.

RB Ray Rice (BAL): Rice has been steadily rising up draft boards for awhile. Which kind of worries me. I liked him a lot more before when he was undervalued. I think the hype surrounding him now could push him high enough where he is borderline overvalued. Either way, his stock is going up, because he seems to be ready to handle the load in BAL. RB Willis McGahee will still get some carries, and LeRon McClain is always a threat to steal TDs. But Rice is the best all-around RB on the roster. And it was nice to see him get a 3-yard TD against NYJ. It was also nice to see him as the only RB to get carries with the 1st team offense.

RB Cedric Benson (CIN): I am aware of his past, but he seems to have found a new home in CIN. And, if nothing else, he is set to get a lot of touches in what should be a much-improved offense. He should be a solid RB3 and you can get him very late in most drafts.

RB Leon Washington (NYJ): This guy is extremely fast/quick and catches the ball very well out of the backfield. I think RB Thomas Jones is on the way out, but I am not convinced that RB Shonn Greene is the answer. Instead, I think NYJ will try to get Washington the ball more often and let him work in space.

RB Ryan Grant (GB): Grant teased us with a great finish in 2007, only to limp through 2008 with an injured hamstring after holding out all through camp. But Grant looks much quicker and faster this preseason, which makes me think he is ready to regain his late-2007 form. Plus, the GB offense looks very sharp and primed to score a ton of points. And you have to love a guy who is not part of a RBBC, even if he is not all that dynamic.

WR Troy Williamson (JAX): Thus far in his career, Williamson has been known mostly for not being able to catch the ball. But this preseason, he is actually becoming known for making catches. In fact, he leads all WRs in the preseason with 221 yards (on only 7 catches). He is still considered a very deep sleeper, but he could be worth a roster spot if he can keep, you know, catching the ball.

WR Laurent Robinson (STL): Speaking of reviving your career, Robinson has been playing well in STL. WR Donnie Avery is recovering from a foot injury, allowing Robinson some more reps. And Robinson has been taking advantage of the increased playing time. As with Williamson, Robinson is still a sleeper and is only worthy of a bench spot in deeper leagues. But keep an eye on him and see how STL uses him.

WR David Clowney (NYJ): Clowney might as well be called “Mr. August”. After leading the NFL in receiving yards during the preseason in 2008, Clowney has played very well again this year, scoring 2 TDs already. But it is worth noting that, after playing well in the 2008 preseason, he only had 1 catch for 26 yards in the regular season. His stock is certainly up due to his play, but do not get too excited. Especially with a rookie QB under center.

WR Chris Henry (CIN): Henry has finally (or so they say) cleaned up his act and is ready to play football. The guy is freakishly athletic and is a favorite target of QB Carson Palmer, which could work out very well for him if he can keep his head on straight. I think the CIN offense is very underrated, so Henry could end up posting some very solid numbers.

More Sleepers

Here is another discussion regarding potential sleepers. Some of these names appeared on my previous list of 2009 sleepers, but some of them are new. Either way, here are some guys to keep your eyes on during the preseason and during the later rounds of your fantasy draft.

QB Kyle Orton (DEN): Most of the focus has been on QB Jay Cutler as a result of the offseason swap of the two QBs, but I think Orton could benefit the most. Orton was actually playing fairly well last year before an ankle injury derailed his season. And now he is in Denver, with a capable stable of RBs, WR Brandon Marshall and WR Eddie Royal as his main targets on the outside, and a coach who loves to throw the ball. The system is set up very well for Orton, who does not have great arm strength, but is pretty accurate. He is going pretty late in most drafts, but should end up out-performing his draft position by quite a bit.

RB James Davis: He should be the top backup to RB Jamal Lewis in Cleveland. And Lewis has seemingly been on his last legs for a couple years. I would not be surprised to see Lewis give way to Davis as the season progresses. It is also worth noting that Davis broke all of Lewis’ high school rushing records.

RB Andre Brown (NYG): Most people assume that RB Ahmad Bradshaw will assume the role vacated by RB Derrick Ward and pile up the yards in 2009. However, I do not think Bradshaw is that type of back. In fact, I think Brown has a chance to step in a claim quite a few carries in the NYG’s RB rotation. Also remember that RB Brandon Jacobs has a tendency to suffer nagging injuries.

RB Jamaal Charles (KC): There are rumors abound that RB Larry Johnson will have to fight for his starting spot. Now, this may just be the new coaches forcing the formerly-disgruntled RB to work harder. But it also could be due to the fact that Johnson is apparently not a great fit for new HC Todd Haley’s pass-central offense. Charles is a bit undersized, but has great speed and could excel in a more open offense. Keep an eye on Johnson, though. He reportedly showed up at camp weighing 223 pounds, after checking in at over 230 pounds last year. He is said to be in the best shape of his career. Maybe Johnson is the real sleeper here?

RB Ray Rice (BAL): I love Ray Rice in 2009. He is the starting RB on a team that loves to run — they ran more than any other team in the NFL in 2008. Obviously, RB Willis McGahee and RB Le’Ron McClain will steal some carries, but I think Rice will be the main ball carrier, getting around 20 carries per game. He loses some value, because McClain will likely steal the goal line carries, but Rice has solid hands, so he should put up good yardage totals. Either way, he is usually going pretty late in most drafts, so he should easily out-perform his draft position.

WR Robert Meachem (NO): Meachem was very talented coming out of Tennessee, but simply was not able to stay healthy and/or pick up the system thus far. However, coming into the 2009 season, QB Drew Brees has been raving about this kid. Now, normally, this might be shrugged off as a QB talking up a fellow teammate. But when you consider that in 2007, Brees kept talking up a guy by the name of WR Marques Colston, and in 2008, Brees was high on previously unheard of WR Lance Moore, you start to think that maybe you should pay attention. How well Meachem does is anyone’s guess. But with praise like that from Mr. Brees, you best keep him on your radar.

WR Limas Sweed (PIT): He was expected to be a very high draft pick while at the University of Texas, but a wrist injury and some other issues pushed him down on draft day. And then he was nearly invisible as a rookie in Pittsburgh. But rumors out of camp are that Sweed is looking very good and should be in line for the 3rd WR spot behind WR Hines Ward and WR Santonio Holmes. Although there are not a ton of passing yards to go around in Pittsburgh, due to his size, Sweed could develop into a nice redzone target, if nothing else.

WR Dominic Hixon (NYG): A lot of the focus in the preseason has been on rookies WR Hakeem Nicks and WR Ramses Barden. However, I doubt either one of these guys will have an impact in 2009. Instead, the NYGs will make due with guys like Hixon, WR Steve Smith, and WR Mario Manningham. Smith is more of a possession WR, and Manningham is an unknown quantity after being injured for most of 2008. Hixon, however, showed us last year that he has some talent, and should step into the role of the #1 WR this year. The Giants run the ball a ton, so do not expect Fitzgerald-like numbers. But he is worth taking late in your draft, probably even after someone else takes Nicks.

WR Earl Bennett (CHI): Count me among the people who do not believe WR Devin Hester is a legitimate #1 WR in the NFL. Couple that with the lack of other WR options in Chicago, and all of a sudden second-year WR Earl Bennett becomes intriguing, especially considering that he and QB Jay Cutler used to be college teammates. Will we see a reprise of the Jay and Earl Show in Chicago?

WR Josh Morgan (SF): I still like Morgan. I liked him last year. And despite the presence of WR Michael Crabtree (assuming he actually plays in 2009), I still like him this year. Obviously, the QB situation in SF is less than desirable. But that does not mean Morgan will not put up decent numbers. Remember, he had a TD catch in every game he started in 08. Which shows that the guy can get open. He is worth taking late for depth and could turn into a solid WR3.

TE Kevin Boss (NYG): Boss had a solid rookie campaign and is reported to have developed a very good chemistry with QB Eli Manning so far in camp. Which is good, because I think Eli will be looking to his TE a lot in 2009. Although I do think Hixon is a sleeper at WR, I do not expect the Giants’ WRs as a group to be all that dangerous. Which means that Eli will have to look to his TE a lot.

Packers Defense: Usually I would not bother to even include a defense on a list like this. But I think the Packers are going to be much better on defense this year than in 2008. They have a very good secondary, an improved defensive line, and they are switching to the 3-4, which should help them get more pressure on the QB. Are they going to be as good as the Ravens or Steelers? No. But if you wait until the very end of your draft to get a defense (like I do), I think they are a great value.

Snake Draft Strategies

Check out the Draft Guide for strategies for your traditional/snake draft and auction draft.

WR Rankings

Here are my Top 10 WRs for 2009:

1. Larry Fitzgerald (ARI)
2. Andre Johnson (HOU)
3. Randy Moss (NE)
4. Steve Smith (CAR)
5. Calvin Johnson (DET)
6. Greg Jennings (GB)
7. Reggie Wayne (IND)
8. Roddy White (ATL)
9. Terrell Owens (BUF)
10. Dwayne Bowe (KC)

Click here for the rest of the rankings.

See also:  QB Rankings |  RB Rankings

QB Rankings

Here are my top 10 QBs for 2009:

1. Drew Brees (NO)
2. Tom Brady (NE)
3. Peyton Manning (IND)
4. Aaron Rodgers (GB)
5. Phillip Rivers (SD)
6. Kurt Warner (ARI)
7. Tony Romo (DAL)
8. Matt Schaub (HOU)
9. Donovan McNabb (PHI)
10. Matt Cassel (KC)

Click here for the rest of the QB Rankings.

See also:  RB Rankings |  WR Rankings

RB Rankings

My pre-draft RB Rankings are posted.

Here are my Top 10 RBs for 2009:

1. Adrian Peterson (MIN)
2. Michael Turner (ATL)
3. Matt Forte (CHI)
4. Steven Jackson (STL)
5. Maurice Jones-Drew (JAX)
6. Chris Johnson (TEN)
7. Steve Slaton (HOU)
8. LaDainian Tomlinson (SD)
9. Frank Gore (SF)
10. DeAneglo Williams (CAR)

Click here for the rest of the RB Rankings.

See Also:  QB Rankings | WR Rankings