Week 7 Start-Sit: Right & Wrong

For my Week 7 start-sit predictions, (by my calculations) I was right 20 times and wrong 9 times, for an accuracy rating of 69%. Not great, but pretty good considering I tried to avoid the obvious must-start players. I was much better on my “starts” (15-5) than my “sits” (5-4). Judge for yourself. Here is a recap:

I said Start:

QB Aaron Rodgers, WR Greg Jennings, WR Donald Driver (GB) vs. Indianapolis Colts: Rodgers performed well enough to start (186 yards, 1 TD), although it was not on par with his usual performances. But Jennings and Driver each had less than 40 yards, though. (1-2)

QB Trent Edwards, WR Lee Evans (BUF) vs. San Diego Chargers: Both played well. (3-2)

QB Drew Brees (NO) at Carolina: Brees played his worst game of the year, but he is still a must-start player, I think. Either way, I was wrong. (3-3)

QB Gus Frerotte, WR Bernard Berrian (MIN) at Chicago Bears: Frerotte had 4 picks, but he also had 298 yards and 2 TDs, making him a top-10 fantasy QB this week. And Berrian had 86 yards and a TD. (5-3)

QB Matt Schaub, RB Steve Slaton, WR Andre Johnson (HOU) vs. Detroit Lions: All three played very well. And TE Owen Daniels had his best game of the year. (9-3)

QB Tony Romo or QB Brad Johnson (DAL) at St. Louis Rams: Romo was out, and Brad Johnson was awful. I was wrong. But RB Marion Barber did play pretty well (18 carries, 100 yards, TD). (10-4)

RB Willie Parker (PIT) at Cincinnati Bengals: Parker did not play, but as I predicted, RB Mewelde Moore performed well in his stead. (11-5)

RB Chris Johnson (TEN) at Kansas City Chiefs: 168 yards and a TD. I also suggested starting LenDale White, but did not endorse him all that strongly, so I will not take the credit. (12-5)

RB Dominic Rhodes (IND) at Green Bay Packers: Rhodes had 114 total yards and 2 TDs. (13-5)

RB Matt Forte (CHI) vs. Minnesota Vikings: Once again, it was not pretty, but Forte put up fantasy points. (14-5)

RB Kevin Smith (DET) at Houston Texans. Smith was my “Sleeper-of-the-Week” pick and he delivered with 10 carries for 60 yards and a TD. (15-5)

WR Randy Moss (NE) vs. Denver Broncos: We will see tonight.

I said Sit:

QB Chad Pennington (MIA) vs. Baltimore Ravens: Pennington had 295 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT, plus 25 rushind yards, and was the second highest scoring fantasy QB this week. Definitely wrong. (15-6)

RB Ronnie Brown, RB Ricky Williams (MIA) vs. Baltimore Ravens: Brown: 28 total yards. Williams: 16 total yards. Both very ugly. (17-6)

RB Chris Perry, RB Cedric Benson (CIN) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers: Perry was benched in favor of Benson. But Benson only totaled 62 yards. (19-6)

RB Jonathan Stewart, RB DeAngelo Williams (CAR) vs. New Orleans Saints: Williams had 70 total yards. Stewart had 71, but did score a TD. So he would have been an okay start. (20-7)

WR Dwayne Bowe (KC) vs. Tennessee Titans: Bowe had 86 yards, which puts him 21st on the list of WRs. Not great, but probably good enough to start in most leagues. (20-8)

WR Santana Moss (WAS) vs. Cleveland Browns: I was definitely wrong. He bounced back. Moss had 75 yards and a TD. (20-9)

Week 7: Random Thoughts

1. Steven Jackson reminded us why he is one of the best RBs in the league.

2. The Packers secondary made Reggie Wayne and Marvin Harrison look very normal.

3. LenDale White and Chris Johnson made the Chiefs defense look like a JV team.

4. Maybe Tony Romo is not overrated.

5. Clinton Portis continues his bid for an MVP award.

6. Did anyone listen when I called Kevin Smith my Sleeper-of-the-Week?

7. Roy Williams’ Cowboys debut: 0 catches, 0 yards.

8. The Ravens stymied the Dolphins’ Wildcat offense: 5 plays, 4 yards.

9. Is the Josh Morgan we saw in the preseason back?

10. Did LenDale White really have an 80-yard TD run?

Week 7: Friday Injury Update

Here are some key players who are injured heading into week 7:

QB Tony Romo (DAL): Romo (finger) might play this weekend, but the Cowboys will not say whether he will for sure. Advice: Unfortunately, we may not know until right before the game if Romo will play. Whether it is Romo or QB Brad Johnson, he is worth a start. But check back for updates on Romo.

QB Matt Hasselbeck (SEA): Hasselbeck (knee) is out this week. Advice: After missing last week, backup QB Seneca Wallace will start this week against the Bucs. However, I would not advice starting Wallace unless you are absolutely desperate.

QB Eli Manning (NYG): Manning (chest) was injured against the Browns last week. Advice: Manning is expected to play this weekend and is a safe start.

RB Clinton Portis (WAS): Portis (hip flexor) missed practice this week but is expected to play. Advice: Portis has been an absolut beast this year and has a great matchup against a Browns defense that gave up over 180 rushing yards last week against the Giants. Start him with confidence.

RB Joseph Addai (IND): Addai (hamstring) is out 2-4 weeks with a hamstring injury. Advice: Mike Hart (knee) is also out, so RB Dominic Rhodes will get the start. He makes a good play against a weak Packers run defense.

RB Reggie Bush (NO): Bush (knee) missed practice this week, but is expected to play this weekend. Advice: I think Bush will be fine (and so do his coaches), so you can put him in the lineup.

RB Willie Parker (PIT): Parker (knee) was expected to return this week, but re-aggravated his knee injury in practice. Advice: It sounds like RB Mewelde Moore might get the start this weekend, as the Steelers rest Parker for one more week. Who ever starts makes a good play against the Bengals.

WR Marques Colston (NO): Colston (thumb) is expected to be back this week after being out since week 1. Advice: If you are this at WR, considering starting Colston. But I would not expect much in his first action in over a month.

WR Joey Galloway (TB): Galloway (foot) has practiced and could return this week. Advice: I would stay away from him until you know he is ready to go for sure. But if you need him, check back before the games on Sunday to see if he is active.

WR Chris Chambers (SD): Chambers (ankle) missed practice on Thursday due to an ankle injury, and is unlikely to play this week. Advice: I expect WR Malcom Floyd, who had 3 catches for 75 yards and a TD last week, to step into the lineup for Chambers again this week.

WR Calvin Johnson (DET): Johnson (concussion) has been practicing and is expected to play this weekend. Advice: Even with Orlovsky at QB, Johnson is a guy you gotta keep in your lineup, especially against the Texans, who can struggle against the pass.

WR Brandon Lloyd (CHI): Lloyd (knee) is likely out this week. Advice: I expect WR Devin Hester to continue to get more looks while Lloyd is on the sideline. Lloyd is at least one more week away.

WR Eddie Royal (DEN): Royal (ankle) was a somewhat surprising scratch last week but is expected to play this week. Advice: I thought he would go last week and he ended up sitting out. But I think he is a much safer play this week.

WR Brandon Stokley (DEN): Stokley (concussion) has not practiced and is likely out this week. Advice: Although Stokley played well while Royal was sidelined, he would be back to 3rd on the depth chart this week even if he could play, so I would stay away regardless.

TE Tony Scheffler (DEN): Scheffler (groin) has been limited in practice this week and is unlikely to play. Advice: The Broncos will likely rest Scheffler, since next week is their bye. So look for him to return in week 9. TE Nate Jackson will get the start in place of Scheffler.

TE Jeremy Shockey (NO): Like Colston, Shockey (sports hernia) is expected to return this week. Advice: Again, as with Colston, I would only start Shockey if you are desperate. It is hard to say what his role will be this weekend, if he plays at all.

TE Kellen Winslow (CLE): Winslow (unknown illness) was hospitalized last weekend and missed the MNF game against the Giants. Advice: Winslow returned to practice this week, but it is unclear whether he is ready to play this weekend. Check for updtes before the games on Sunday, but I would not rely on him this week.

Update: Larry Johnson Suspended

According to NFL.com, Chiefs RB Larry Johnson has been suspended for this week’s game against the Tennessee Titans for an “unspecified violation of team rules”.

For now, it appears that Johnson will only miss one game. But Johnson is an unpredictable player who has often clashed with the coaches and management in KC. So keep an eye on him.

Advice: With Johnson out, the Chiefs will look to RB Jamaal Charles and RB Kolby Smith. I expect that Charles will get a majority of the carries, but Smith should see some action, too. However, neither of them make a good play this week against the Titans, who have a very good defense.

Week 7: Sit

Okay, first I am going to go on record and say that Roddy White will not appear on this list. He burned me last week and I am willing to admit that not only was I wrong but Roddy White is a must-start WR.

And now, here are some players who I would sit this week, either because they have bad matchups or I just do not think they will do well. But, like I always say, the start/sit decision is based on your alternatives. If you have other options, I would probably sit these guys.

QB Chad Pennington (MIA) vs. Baltimore Ravens: Pennington has been a serviceable fantasy QB lately, although he has done it mostly against some poor defenses. He has a much tougher matchup against the Ravens this week. And do not be fooled by what Peyton Manning did last week. Pennington is no Peyton Manning.

RB Ronnie Brown, RB Ricky Williams (MIA) vs. Baltimore Ravens: The Ravens only allow 66 yards and 0.2 touchdowns per game on the ground. Although the Ravens have not seen the Wildcat Formation yet, I do not expect either of these guys to have a great day. However, Ronnie Brown has been playing very well — at least one TD in four straight games and at least 100 yards rushing in 2 of his last 3) — so if you do not have any other options, he is definitely an option to consider.

RB Chris Perry, RB Cedric Benson (CIN) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers: Perry has not been playing very well lately, and Benson is still working his way back into football shape after being out for a few months. And Pittsburgh has held opponents to around 67 yards rushing per game. With Ryan Fitzpatrick at QB again, the Bengals will likely struggle to move the ball regardless.

RB Jonathan Stewart, RB DeAngelo Williams (CAR) vs. New Orleans Saints: I am never a big fan of RBs by committee, because they are too difficult to predict. And on top of that, the Saints have actually been playing very well against the run. A couple weeks ago, they held Adrian Peterson to 32 yards on 21 carries. And they are only giving up 0.5 rushing TDs per game. If you have to start one, I would go with Steward, who is more likely than Williams to score.

WR Dwayne Bowe (KC) vs. Tennessee Titans: The Titans have a very solid defense, and are giving up under 200 passing yards per game. On top of that, they have allowed the fewest passing TDs this year in the NFL. Although Bowe is the main target in KC, I expect him (and the rest of the Chiefs) to struggle.

WR Santana Moss (WAS) vs. Cleveland Browns: Moss is coming off two poor performances (no catches against the Eagles, and only 2 catches for 22 yards against the Rams). And the Browns actually have a pretty solid defense, allowing only 186 passing yards and 0.8 passing TDs per game. The Redskins need to rebound from last week’s embarrassing loss to the Rams, but I am not confident that Moss will play a big role.

Also, remember that the following teams are on bye this week: Cardinals, Falcons, Jaguars, and Eagles.

Week 7: Start

Here is a list of players who either have good matchups this week, or have less than ideal matchups but I would still start. So, unless starting one (or more) of these guys means that you are benching one (or more) of your must-start players, they should be in your lineup.

QB Aaron Rodgers, WR Greg Jennings, WR Donald Driver (GB) vs. Indianapolis Colts: Rodgers and Jennings are must-start players, even against the Colts, who only give up 169 passing yards per game. But remember that the Colts give up over 160 rushing yards per game, so most teams just keep it on the ground. However, with Ryan Grant struggling, the Packers will look to move the ball through the air. And both Jennings and Driver should put up good numbers.

QB Trent Edwards, WR Lee Evans (BUF) vs. San Diego Chargers: Edwards is coming off a concussion, but is expected to play. And the Chargers give up 267 passing yards and 1.7 passing TDs per game. Look for Edwards to connect with Evans (who is averaging over 17 yards per catch) for a long TD (or two).

QB Drew Brees (NO) at Carolina: Brees is a must-start player, even against the Panthers, who give up around 171 passing yards per game. Through 6 weeks of the season, Brees might be the MVP of the NFL.

QB Gus Frerotte, WR Bernard Berrian (MIN) at Chicago Bears: Berrian is a guy most would start anyway, but both him and Frerotte have a good matchup against the Bears, who give up over 250 passing yards per game. On top of that, RB Adrian Peterson has not been running the ball well (although you have to start him, too), so the Vikings will likely have to pass the ball to beat their division rivals.

QB Matt Schaub, RB Steve Slaton, WR Andre Johnson (HOU) vs. Detroit Lions: The Lions defense is simply awful. They give up over 170 rushing yards and 1.4 rushing TDs per game, and 261 passing yards and 1.8 passing TDs per game.  Look for Houston to get its second-straight win, and look for these three to have big days. TE Owen Daniels is a good start, too.

QB Tony Romo or QB Brad Johnson (DAL) at St. Louis Rams: The Rams rank 31st in total defense, so whether it is Romo or Brad Johnson at QB, he is worth a start. Also, expect RB Marion Barber to have a huge day, especially if Romo is out.

RB Willie Parker (PIT) at Cincinnati Bengals: The Steelers play against a Bengals defense that allows over 156 rushing yards per game. However, keep an eye on Parker’s injury status, because apparently he re-aggravated his knee injury and his status for this weekend is uncertain. If he cannot go, RB Mewelde Moore makes a good start.

RB Chris Johnson (TEN) at Kansas City Chiefs: Chris Johnson is bordering on must-start territory, in my opinion, but this week he has a great matchup against a Chiefs defense that allows over 180 rushing yards and 1.6 rushing TDs per game. Look for Johnson — and probably even RB LenDale White — to have a big day.

RB Dominic Rhodes (IND) at Green Bay Packers: Rhodes will be starting this week in place of the injured Joseph Addai, and should find some room to run against the Packers, who give up over 150 yards per game on the ground.

RB Matt Forte (CHI) vs. Minnesota Vikings: I am not a big Forte fan, but he has played well this year. And even though he has has been averaging less than 4 yards per carry lately, he is still putting up good (fantasy) numbers. As long as Forte gets enough carries, catches some passes, and finds the end zone (which he has done pretty regularly this year), he is worth a start — even against a Vikings defense that only allows 74 yards rushing per game.

RB Kevin Smith (DET) at Houston Texans. Smith is my “Sleeper-of-the-Week” pick. Although Smith is technically the backup to Rudi Johnson, he has out-played him over the past few games. And the the Texans give up 2 rushing TDs per game (most in the NFL). If you are desperate for RB help, consider putting Smith in your lineup.

WR Randy Moss (NE) vs. Denver Broncos: This is not 2007. And Matt Cassell is not Tom Brady. But this week, the Patriots play the Broncos, who give up over 265 passing yards per game. Moss may not be a must-start player anymore, but this is a great matchup for him (although he also had a good matchup last week against San Diego and did not do much…).

Injury Update: Tony Romo to play?

QB Tony Romo (DAL): ESPN has reported that Tony Romo has told his coaches that he will try to play this weekend against St. Louis with a broken pinkie finger on his throwing hand.

Advice: If he can play, he would make a good start against a poor Rams defense. And assuming he can play effectively, it would improve the value of Barber, TO, Roy Williams, and Witten (and would obviously bump Brad Johnson back to the bench).

But I would not get too excited yet. Romo says he will play, but it remains to be seen whether (1) he can actually play effectively and/or (2) the Cowboys organization will allow him to play.

Check back for updates…

Week 7: Buy / Sell

BUY:

QB Tony Romo (DAL): Most fantasy owners are unlikely to part with Romo, who is one of the better fantasy QBs this year. But some fantasy players get desperate when their stars get injured. It is unlikely you will get a great deal on Romo, but if you are in a league with someone who cannot afford to wait four weeks until he is healthy, you might be able to make a move for him and stash him on your bench.

RB Ryan Grant (GB): As I have said, Ryan Grant keeps letting me down. But that means that he keeps letting all his owners down. And they might be fed up with him by now. I would not give up too much for him, but it might be worth the gamble if you can get a deal on him. Rodgers continues to play well, and I have to think that Green Bay will eventually figure out how to use Grant more effectively. Remember: He did miss nearly all of training camp after holding out and injuring his hamstring.

RB Thomas Jones (NYJ): Jones had a huge game last week, so now may not be the best time. But I think he will continue to perform well as the season goes on. Favre is still learning the Jets offense, and the Jets are still learning how to use Brett Favre. Once they are all on the same page, I think the Jets offense will start clicking. And Jones should get plenty of opportunities.

RB Adrian Peterson (MIN): Peterson has not lived up to expectations this year, and you might be able to take advantage of this fact. He has performed well against some weaker defenses (GB, IND, DET), but has struggled against some better ones (TEN, CAR). As with Romo, you are probably not going to get a steal. But he does have some easy games down the stretch (HOU, GB, JAX, DET), and I have to think that Childress will use the upcoming bye week to figure out how to get AP more involved.

SELL:

RB Michael Turner (ATL): I said it last week and I will say it again: You should trade Michael Turner before his value is too low. As I predicted, Turner struggled against the Bears, gaining only 54 yards on 25 carries. More importantly, perhaps, is the fact that both QB Matt Ryan and WR Roddy White performed well. I expect Turner to continue to struggle against all but the bottom-tier of NFL defenses. If you can move him now for someone like Chris Johnson (TEN), Ronnie Brown (MIA), or Steve Slaton (HOU) — or maybe Adrian Peterson (MIN)? — I would do it.

WR Roy Williams (DAL): I think Roy Williams will do better in Dallas than he did in Detroit. And that is probably what most fantasy players think. Which is why now is the perfect time to trade him. With TO, Witten, Barber, and Felix Jones in Dallas, there simply are not enough balls to go around. I think Roy Williams will have a few big games, as teams focus on stopping TO, but he will not be as good as many expect. If I owned Roy Williams, I woudl see if I could capitalize on his perceived jump in value immediately following his move to Dallas — particularly if someone in your league is a Texas Longhorns or Dallas Cowboys fan.

Week 7: Hot & Cold

Here is a list of who is hot and who is cold going into week 7:

HOT:

QB Aaron Rodgers (GB): Despite concerns about his shoulder injury, Rodgers has played very well. He is the top-scoring fantasy player (depending on your scoring system) and, since GB has no running game to speak of, should continue to post very solid numbers going forward.

QB Drew Brees (NO): Playing without arguably his two best receiving options (Colston, Shockey), Brees has been outstanding. He is second in fantsy points and — if you can believe it — things should get even better once he has Colston and Shockey back.

RB Marion Barber (DAL): Most likely, the Cowboys will lean heavily on Marion Barber while Romo is out. And on top of that, Felix Jones will miss some time with a hamstring injury. Look for Barber to get a lot of touches over the next few weeks.

WR Reggie Wayne (IND): Other than week 3 against Jacksonville (3 catches, 74 yards), Wayne has had at least 86 yards and a TD in every single game. He is a model of consistency and has been a fantasy stud this year.

WR Roddy White (ATL): White is second in the NFL in receiving yards and looks to be a must-start WR at this point. Some (including me) were concerned about White’s ability to consistently produce when RB Michael Turner struggled and with a rookie QB. But he has been very solid.

WR Braylon Edwards (CLE): After doing essentially nothing all year, Edwards had 5 catches for 154 yards, 1 TD and a 2-point conversion on MNF. And better yet, QB Derek Anderson looked sharp. Hopefully it will continue.

TE Jason Witten (DAL): Witten ranks 5th in receiving yards in the NFL, and is crushing all other fantasy TEs. If you were lucky enough to grab Witten, you are in great shape. It is like having another WR1 on your team. And look for him to continue to play well, even with Brad Johnson at QB.

COLD:

QB Dan Orlovsky (DET): The Lions placed Jon Kitna on IR, and Orlovsky is now the starter. He had a very average performance agaisnt Minnesota in his first start, and now has lost Roy Williams. And in addition to just being on a bad team, Drew Stanton is waiting in the wings.

RB Ryan Grant (GB): I keep expecting Grant to turn it on, but he continues to let me down. Last week, against a marginal Seattle defense, Grant was only able to put up 90 yards, despite getting 33 carries. He has another good matchup this week against the Colts, but I simply have no faith in him at this point.

RB Le’Ron McClain (BAL): McClain had been doing very well this year until he posted minus-2 yards against Indy last week. And this week, he faces a tough Miami defense. I think he will rebound, because Miami will not jump out to a big lead like Indy did, but Ray Rice is also in the mix.

RB Adrian Peterson (MIN): Peterson has not delivered on the high expectations most had for him coming into the season. He has three games with less than 10 total fantasy points, and recently posted only 32 yards rushing on 21 carries against an average Saints defense. He is still 10th in fantasy points for RBs, but since he was likely drafted first or second, his numbers are very disappointing.

Any TE Not Named Jason Witten: This year, TEs have been very disappointing. Witten has scored twice as many points as the 7th ranked TE (Owen Daniels), and has outscored the second-best TE (Antonio Gates) by more than 10 points. Basically, unless you have Witten, you are struggling to find a TE who can consistently help your fantasy team.

Week 7: Watch List

Here is a list of players who have the potential to be worth a roster spot, but are likely not quite there yet. Keep an eye on them in week 7 to see how they perform, though, and be the first to grab them if they turn into players:

RB Ryan Torain (DEN): The rookie RB from Denver is expected to resume practicing this week, after missing the beginning of the season with a broken arm. Coach Mike Shanahan was very high on Torain going into the year, and many think he could be the full-time starter as soon as week 10.

RB Cedric Benson (CIN): It is likely that Benson will take over for Chris Perry as the starting RB in Cincinnati. Although the Bengals offense is nothing to get excited about, Benson will be a starting RB and might be worth a roster spot in 12-team leagues. Keep an eye on him to see how well he performs with his new team after being out of football for a couple months.

WR Donnie Avery (STL): Avery has played well lately, and has a pretty good matchup this week against a Cowboys defense that can be beat through the air. And given the likelihood that St. Louis will be playing from behind, Avery should get plenty of opportunities. The Rams are surprisingly 1-0 under new coach Jim Haslett, so watch Avery to see how they work him into the offense.

WR Malcom Floyd (SD): I thought Craig Davis would get more looks with Chambers out, but it turned out to be Malcom Floyd who was the main beneficiary. Last week, he had 3 catches for 75 yards and a TD. With Chambers expected to miss another game (at least), keep an eye on Floyd to see if last week was a fluke or if he is working his way towards being a legitimate fantasy WR.