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Don’t Buy the Hype

Everyone loves to put together lists of sleepers during the preasons, to show how smart they are and how well they can evaluate up-and-coming talent. But most of the guys on these lists will not do anything during the regular season.

On an entirely unrelated note, please see my list of sleepers here.

So, here are some guys who have been identified as “sleepers” by many (including me) who are not likely to be worth a pick. They are, however, worth keeping an eye on, because if they continue to perofrm, they will be worth adding as a FA or WW acquisition.

QB Michael Vick (PHI): I am annoyed that I keep finding myself writing about Vick. Hey, I am fine that the guy is getting a second chance. In fact, I support his endeavor to return to NFL stardom. Lord knows I have had my fair share of second chances. But do we really have to follow his every step? Or does ESPN and NFLN have to show every single snap he takes — four times? He is a backup QB who will get a few snaps a game. But he will never put up enough stats to make him worthwhile as a starter. Who knows, though. Maybe I am wrong. I hope I am. But there is no way I will waste a draft pick on a guy like him. I would rather take QB Jamarcus Russell than Vick. At least Russell plays every snap.

WR Troy Williamson (JAX): He has caught some balls and put up some yards in the preseason, but I am still not buying into the hype. I have him on my list of sleepers (gotta cover my bases, right?), but I think he is only worth consideration in very deep leagues. Even if he does continue to catch passes (as opposed to, you know, dropping them like he usually does), he will be a Devery Henderson type player — catching one or two long bombs each game, or catching nothing. Too risky.

WR David Clowney (NYJ): Clowney seems kinda like Williams, insofar as he has looked good in the preseason catching mostly long passes, but I am not convinced that he will continue to produce during the regular season. It is also worth noting that Clowney led the NFL in receiving yards during the preseason in 2008. And then he proceeded to have exactly 1 catch during the regular season. I do think Clowney will have a somewhat productive year, since he is (currently) listed as the starter opposite WR Jerricho Cotchery. As you may know, I have Clowney listed as a sleeper (I think), but I consider him a “deep” sleeper who has a pretty high chance of not showing up.

RB Shonn Greene (NYJ): Some people are convinced that Shonn Greene is going to take over for RB Thomas Jones at some point this season. While I do expect Jones to experience a decline in production this year, I do not expect him to be replaced by the rookie. First, I am not all that high on Greene. Second, RB Leon Washington will still get a lot of touches in this offense no matter how well Jones (or Greene) is playing. So even if Greene does get some carries, he is probably not worth starting anytime soon. I would allow Greene to go undrafted and consider picking him up later if it looks like the NJY are going to use him.

Alright… That is enough for now. It’s Friday night. And it’s time for me to go have some fun. And by “fun” I mean prepare for my auction draft tomorrow…

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