3 Losers & a Douchebag

Loser # 1: Everyone expected NE to go right back to their glory of 2007 when QB Tom Brady returned. And week 1 was a nice start. But in week 2, WR Randy Moss only posted 24 yards. And for that, he is a loser.

Loser # 2: Last week, TE Zach Miller showed everyone why he was considered a sleeper at TE when he caught 6 passes for 96 yards. Then he followed that up by completely disappearing. That should teach us a lesson: Never trust the fat caveman (aka QB Jamarcus Russell). And for teaching us that lesson, he is a loser.

Loser #3: Umm… WTF WR Greg Jennings? Zero catches against CIN? How is that even possible? You know what? I don’t even wanna know. Because either way, you are a loser.

Douchebag: My douchebag this week is personal. QB Matt Schaub (HOU) is my douchebag this week because I recommended that you sit him because he was facing the TEN defense and he struggled in week 1. But instead of struggling, he blew up and threw for 347 yards and 4 TDs, making him the highest scoring QB. What a douchebag.

Preseason Injury Roundup

It’s this time of the year when everyone starts complaining that the preseason is too long and all that happens is players are injured unnecessarily. And that may be true. But the preseason is not going anywhere. And, unfortunately, neither are preseason injuries. Here are some notable injuries to be aware of as we head into the regular [fantasy] season. I am sure I missed a few. And I might have even made up a couple. It is kinda hard to get a read on injuries during the preseason, since teams are not required to disclose them on an injury report.

QB Tom Brady (NE): Brady injured his throwing shoulder when DT Albert Haynesworth fell on him in the third preseason game. But Brady is apparently back at practice and expects to be fine for the opener. So Brady and Moss owners can breath easily.

QB Drew Brees (NO): I know, I know. Brees himself is not hurt. I am probably freaking people out by putting him on this list. But I only include him here because his starting LT is injured and will miss the first part of the season. And, just in case you did not know, the LT is a very important component of the passing game. Brees should do just fine, but it is something to be aware of.

QB Brent Farve (MIN): [Please note that I refuse to call him by his real name. That person retired a couple of years ago from the Packers.

QB Matt Cassel (KC): As if he did not have enough question marks hanging over his head, now he has to deal with a knee and ankle injury. There are conflicting reports regarding his availability for week 1, but it seems likely that he will miss some time. Keep checking on the updates as week 1 gets closer. But you should have a backup plan.

QB Matt Schaub (HOU): Shocking to find Schaub on the injury report, huh? I am always tempted by his talent, but I simply cannot bring myself to draft him anymore. He is too injury-prone. And now he will enter the season beat up. Which is not a good sign.

QB Kyle Orton (DEN): Orton has what is being described as an “open dislocation”. I am no doctor (nor do I play one on TV), but that does not sound good. As with Cassel, there are mixed reports on whether he will plan in week 1. Hopefully you drafted Orton as your QB2, so it does not matter. If you drafted him as your QB1, well, you might want to check the waiver wire and see who else is out there.

QB Carson Palmer (CIN): Palmer has been nursing a high-ankle sprain all preseason. Which is not good. But he claims to be healing and that he will be ready for Week 1. His availability will have a huge impact on the rest of the CIN players.

Preseason Injury Updates

Here are some notable injuries to be aware of as you draft your teams and/or scour the waiver wires after your drafts:

QB Kurt Warner (ARI): Warner is old and has a hip issue. Although his hip is reportedly getting better, it is still a concern.

QB Carson Palmer (CIN): Palmer missed nearly all of 2008 with an elbow injury, only to injure his ankle upon his return to the field in 2009. I do not expect either to be very serious, but it would be nice to see him play a little more before the real action begins.

QB Drew Brees (NO): Thankfully, Brees is not hurt. But his starting LT Jamaal Brown is. Which does impact Brees’ value. Brees is still a top-ranked fantasy QB, but this might be enough to bump QB Tom Brady above him.

QB Brett Favre (MIN): Favre ended 2008 on a down note due to a bum shoulder. He seems to be ready to go this year, but keep an eye on him and see how he feels after throwing a few passes.

RB Jonathan Stewart (CAR): The most recent reports say that Stewart will miss the rest of the preseason due to a lingering achilles injury. This is bad news for Stewart but very good news for RB DeAngelo Williams, who would benefit immensely from the absence of Stewart.

RB Brian Westbrook (PHI): Westbrook had offseason ankle surgery, and is likely recovering from any number of other injuries he sustained in 2008. Many think 2009 could be the end of the line for Westbrook, but he is a tough player and will not go away easily. But do pay attention to his injury status, because RB LeSean McCoy is lurking in the shadows waiting for his chance to shine.

RB Pierre Thomas (NO): Thomas suffered a minor sprain to his MCL recently, but should be fine by the time week 1 rolls around.

RB Reggie Bush (NO): Bush is reportedly going to see his first action in the next preseason game after missing time due to various injuries. Which is nothing new for Bush.

RB Knowshon Moreno (DEN): After all the hype and the holdout, all Moreno did was get injured. When healthy, he should get enough touches in DEN to make him a borderline RB2. Keep an eye on his knee.

RB Beanie Wells (ARI): Another rookie with some hype was Wells. But no one was surprised when he hurt his ankle on the first day of camp. Wells has dealt with injury issues throughout his career. So it is worth seeing how quickly he recovers.

RB Marshawn Lynch (BUF): Lynch is not injured, but he will miss the first 3 games of the season due to a suspension. If RB Fred Jackson (see below) is healthy, he should get the carries. Otherwise, RB Xavier Omon could get some extra work, along with RB Dominic Rhodes.

RB Fred Jackson (BUF): Jackson has been dealing with a wrist injury and recently left practice due to a thumb injury. It is not yet clear how serious either one is, but since Lynch will miss some time, it is worth following his progress.

WR Calvin Johnson (DET): Johnson returned to practice recently after missing some time with a thumb injury. I think he should be fine for the regular season. If not, he could still probably put up 1000 yards with one hand.

WR Terrell Owens (BUF): Owens will miss another preseason game with a sore toe. Which is not good. Foot/toe injuries have a way of lingering and causing problems all year. Hopefully this one is not serious.

WR Antonio Bryant (TB): Bryant added to the long list of question marks hovering over him heading into 2009 when he injured his meniscus. He could be ready by week 1, but the timetable for his return is not clear. I was already avoiding him, so this does not help his cause.

WR Donnie Avery (STL): Avery suffered a foot injury early in camp, but the reports are that he is on the road to recovery. He could have a very good year, but there are a lot of question marks in STL, including the OL and the QB.

WR Chaz Schilens (OAK): Schilens was rocketing up draft boards (which was easy, since he started near the bottom) and was on everyone’s sleeper lists, and then he broke a bone in his foot and had to have surgery. He will miss the first couple games of the season, but should be back eventually and ready to make an impact.

WR Nate Washington (TEN): Washington injured his hamstring and will miss the remaining 2 preseason games. Which is unfortunate, because it seemed like TEN was working on getting him more involved in the offense.

WR Mike Sims-Walker (JAX): Walker is another sleeper candidate who cannot seem to get on the field and prove he is worthy of a late-round pick. I still like his potential, but he needs to show me something before I waste a pick on him rather than someone else — like his teammate WR Troy Williamson, who is playing well in place of Sims-Walker in the lineup.

WR Michael Crabtree (SF): Crabtree is not injured (that I know of), he is simply being a complete idiot and not signing a contract. Obviously, if he is not under contract, he will not play. So you draft him at your own risk.

That is all I have for now. I am sure I missed someone, or someone else will get injured. So check back for injury updates as we get closer to the regular season.

QB Rankings: Updated

I have updated my QB Rankings. Here is my top 10:

1. Drew Brees (NO)
2. Tom Brady (NE)
3. Peyton Manning (IND)
4. Aaron Rodgers (GB)
5. Tony Romo (DAL)
6. Donovan McNabb (PHI)
7. Matt Ryan (ATL)
8. Kurt Warner (ARI)
9. Matt Schaub (HOU)
10. Philip Rivers (SD)

And here is the rest of the list…

17 Crazy Predictions

Here are 17 crazy (and/or not so crazy) predictions for the 2009 fantasy season that I — um, predict — will come true.

Why 17, you ask? Because that is all I could think of…

1. QB Philip Rivers will not be among the top 10 fantasy QBs at the end of the year.

2. QB Matt Ryan will be.

3. WR Larry Fitzgerald will miss at least one game. (I believe in the Madden Curse.)

4. QB Kurt Warner will miss at least one game. (I believe in reality.)

5. RB Adrian Peterson will score at least 15 total TDs.

6. RB DeAngelo Williams will not score more than 15 total TDs.

7. Rookie RB James Davis will take over for RB Jamal Lewis by week 10.

8. The top 3 fantasy QBs will be QB Drew Brees, QB Tom Brady, and QB Aaron Rodgers.

9. RB Michael Turner will score less than 10 points in at least 4 games.

10. TE Vernon Davis will be a top-10 fantasy TE.

11. WR Randy Moss will be a top-5 fantasy WR.

12. At least 5 rookies will score more points fantasy than WR Percy Harvin.

13. RB Ryan Grant will finish as a top-10 fantasy RB.

14. The top scoring fantasy WR will be WR Andre Johnson.

15. RB Ray Rice will be the highest scoring fantasy RB in BAL.

16. RB LaDainian Tomlinson will finish as a top-10 fantasy RB.

17. WR Devin Hester will not have more than 800 yards receiving.

Players to Watch Tonight

Eight teams play their first preseason games tonight. Here is a list of some players to keep an eye on.

NE v. PHI

QB Tom Brady (NE): How comfortable does he look in the pocket?

RB Fred Taylor (NE): Does he have anything left?

WR Greg Lewis (NE): Can he beat out WR Joey Galloway for the number 3 WR spot?

RB LeSean McCoy (PHI): Can he live up to the hype?

WR DeSean Jackson (PHI): Is he ready to take the next step?

WR Jeremy Maclin (PHI): Will he have any impact as a rookie?

BAL v. WAS

QB Joe Flacco (BAL): Has he progressed at all?

RB Ray Rice (BAL): Is he ready to be the main ballcarrier?

WR Demetrius Williams (BAL): Can he stay healthy and make some plays?

QB Jason Campbell (WAS): Can he relax and take charge of the offense?

WR Devin Thomas (WAS): Is he ready to make an impact?

ARI v. PIT

RB Tim Hightower (ARI): Can he hold onto the number 1 spot

RB Rashard Mendenhall (PIT): Can he show us something other than his ability to get hurt?

WR Limas Sweed (PIT): Can he live up to the hype he had while at Texas?

DAL v. OAK

QB Jamarcus Russell (OAK): Does he still look like a bust?

RB Darren McFadden (OAK): How do the Raiders use him?

WR Chaz Shilens (OAK): Could he be a sleeper?

WR Johnnie Lee Higgins (OAK): He caught a TD pass in each of the last 3 games in 08. Fluke?

QB Tony Romo (DAL): Is he more relaxed without WR Terrell Owens around?

RB Marion Barber (DAL): Will he go back to his old role as TD-machine and game-closer?

RB Felix Jones (DAL): How do the Cowboys use him?

WR Miles Austin (DAL): Is the sleeper-hype justified?

Updated QB Rankings

Here are my updated QB Rankings. The only notable changes are that QB Kurt Warner dropped down a couple of spots due to injury concerns and his age. I am just not convinced 2009 will be as magical as 2008. QB Donovan McNabb also jumped up a couple of spots. I just think he is going to have a great year.

1. Drew Brees (NO) — He might not put up 5,000 yards again… But he certainly could.
2. Tom Brady (NE) — Do not expect 2007-like numbers. But the Brady-Moss connection should be profitable.
3. Peyton Manning (IND) — One of the most consistent fantasy QBs ever.
4. Aaron Rodgers (GB) — Played great in 08 despite Favre saga. Should be more focused and calm in 09.
5. Phillip Rivers (SD) — Showed he is an elite QB. A healthy LT and Gates should serve him well.
6. Tony Romo (DAL) — Moved up a couple spots from previous rankings. His offense is too good, even without TO.
7. Donovan McNabb (PHI) — Moved up a couple spots. He is still in his prime.
8. Kurt Warner (ARI) — Dropped down in rankings due to age and injury concerns. Can 09 be as magical as 08?
9. Matt Schaub (HOU) — Would be higher but for injury concerns.
10. Matt Cassel (KC) — KC is not NE. But that should not stop Cassell from putting up solid numbers.
Click here for the rest of the QB Rankings.

QB Rankings

Here are my top 10 QBs for 2009:

1. Drew Brees (NO)
2. Tom Brady (NE)
3. Peyton Manning (IND)
4. Aaron Rodgers (GB)
5. Phillip Rivers (SD)
6. Kurt Warner (ARI)
7. Tony Romo (DAL)
8. Matt Schaub (HOU)
9. Donovan McNabb (PHI)
10. Matt Cassel (KC)

Click here for the rest of the QB Rankings.

See also:  RB Rankings |  WR Rankings

“I Love You, Man”

Every year, there are guys who are not rated as highly as I think they should be. And then there are some guys who, for some reason or another, I simply fall in love with. You cannot really call most of these guys “sleepers”, since they are definitely on peoples’ radars. But they are guys who I think are underrated.

QB Aaron Rodgers (GB): Yes, he is consistently ranked as a top-10 QB, and even top-5 on a lot of lists. But he was second only to QB Drew Brees last year in total scoring. And I think he will only get better in 2009. The Favre-saga is [mostly] behind him and now he is the unquestioned leader of the team. I have him ranked 3rd, after Brees and QB Tom Brady.

RB Steven Jackson (STL): The more I think about Jackson, the more I like him. And its not just because of his sweet Nike commercials. Last year, Jackson held out thru training camp. And, in the history of the NFL, that basically guarantees that you will get injured. (RB Ryan Grant suffered the same fate.) However, this year, he comes into camp ready to play. And the Rams’ line is much-improved. I think Jackson will return to fantasy stardom. He is not without risk, however.

RB Steve Slaton (HOU): Slaton has everything you want in a top fantasy RB: (1) youth, (2) running ability, (3) receiving ability, (4) a high-powered offense, and (5) no potential threat as a backup. Last year, Slaton surprised many with his combo of running and receiving skills, and posted over 1600 yards and 10 total TDs. I think he will be even better this year. And I am not at all worried about RB Chris Brown or RB Ryan Moats taking carries away from him. Which is a huge plus these days.

RB Marion Barber (DAL): Barber was expected to blow up last year. But injuries limited him in the second-half of the season. Guys like Barber can be annoying in fantasy football: They are too tough to sit down when they are hurt, but they are less effective (for fantasy purposes). It was clear his toe injury was bothering him. But I think he will be back this year. He may never be a full-time RB, due to the flexibility and talent of RB Felix Jones and the emergence of backup RB Tashard Choice, but he is still the most complete RB on that team, and he has one of the best noses for the endzone in the NFL.

RB Ryan Grant (GB): He struggled last year because he tried to play through a hamstring injury after missing camp due to a holdout. But he should come in this year healthy and ready to pick up where he left off in 2008. For some reason, the Packers like to utilize one RB, which is good for Grant. Barring injury, I think he will end the year as a borderline RB1.

RB Kevin Smith (DET): Smith quietly put up a very solid rookie season in 2008. And keep in mind, he did that while sharing carries with RB Rudi Johson (seriously?) early in the year and while playing for the 0-16 Lions, who were constantly playing from behind. I do not expect the Lions to be much better than last year, but Smith should be the unquestionable starter and get quite a few carries. I think he is a solid RB2.

RB Ray Rice (BAL): I think the RB Willis McGahee experiment in Baltimore is about to end. Rice looked very good last year and McGahee has struggled mightily with injuries lately. Plus, he seems to have lost his explosion and desire. Rice, on the other hand, has both. Unfortunatley, as long as McGahee (and FB/RB Le’Ron McClain) is in the picture, Rice will not be the stud he could otherwise be. Watch the news from Ravens camp to see how the team decides to use these guys.

WR Terrell Owens (BUF): It hurts my [football] soul to even include him on this list, but I do think TO is underrated this year. QB Trent Edwards is a better than you think. And WR Lee Evans is better than anyone TO has had across from him in awhile. Plus, TO always has a one-year honeymoon period with his new team, before he starts tearing them apart from the inside. And he only has a one-year contract. Much like WR Randy Moss when he first showed up in New England, TO will have something to prove.

WR Dwayne Bowe (KC): He is ranked pretty high on most lists, but not high enough, if you ask me. This guy is a stud. And he put up very good numbers over the past couple years with very marginal QBs . In 2008, he was third to only WR Brandon Marshall and WR Andre Johnson in targets among WRs. And QB Matt Cassel is clearly better than the previous KC QBs. So Bowe should benefit. And without TE Tony Gonzalez, Bowe should become the primary redzone target.

Fantasy Impact: Rookies

Generally, rookies do not have much of an impact on the fantasy landscape. But, just like everything else, the fantasy world is reactionary. So, since a few rookies — e.g. RB Steve Slaton, RB Chris Johnson, and RB Matt Forte — had great seasons last year, people will expect the class of 2009 to produce some stars. Unfortunately, I do not expect this to happen. But there are some guys who you should consider on draft day.

QB Matt Stafford (DET): It is not even clear yet whether he will be the starter. I would bench him for a year. But I am not in charge. Even if he does end up as the starter, he is not a worthwhile fantasy option. Sure, he will throw a few jump-ball-touchdowns to WR Calvin Johnson, but he will be way too inconsistent to rely on.

QB Josh Freeman (TB): The Josh-Freeman-as-starter camp has been growing lately, but a lot can change between now and Week 1. Either way, he is not a viable fantasy option. Do not be fooled by the (appearance of) success of QB Matt Ryan and QB Joe Flacco last year.

QB Mark Sanchez (NYJ): See Stafford, Matt and Freeman, Josh.

RB Knowshon Moreno (DEN): If you are looking for someone who could make an inmpact, it is Knowshon. As of now, it looks like he is set to be the starter in Denver. And he has a very attractive combination of running and receiving skills. However, I do have some concerns about how new HC Josh McDaniels will use Moreno, given his extremely annoying tendency in NE to use multiple (marginal) RBs. Either way, the competition is fairly weak, so I expect Moreno to get every opportunity to shine. (But I am still holding out hope that RB Ryan Torain will recover from his knee injury and become the fantasy stud I expected him to be last year. But, at this point, that seems unlikely.)

RB Lesean McCoy (PHI): Fact: RB Brian Westbrook is breaking down. It is unfortunate. Because he has been a great fantasy player for a long time. But he is nearing 30, and he has a ton of touches over the past few years. Even if he can stay healthy this year (which is extremely unlikely), McCoy should get plenty of touches as the Eagles try to keep Westbrook fresh. And if Westbrook goes down, McCoy should do very well in that offense, which is set up to give RBs big numbers. If you draft Westbrook, do yourself a favor and take McCoy as a handcuff.

RB Beanie Wells (ARI): The Cardinals throw too much for Wells to be a stud, but he is by far the best RB (sorry, Edge) the Cards have had in awhile. RB Tim Hightower has a great name, but he had his chance to shine last year and he was less than impressive. I am not a huge Wells fan in general, because I think he lacks the mental and physical toughness necessary to be a good RB, but he does have the skills. So, if he can stay healthy, he should get plenty of goal line carries in Arizona’s offense, because they run the ball surprisingly often inside the 10-yard line.

RB Donald Brown (IND): I love this kid. He is smart and not flashy. And he ended up in a great situation. RB Joseph Addai has struggled with injuries lately (ahem, understatement), so Brown could get plenty of chances. Even if Addai stays healthy, the Colts will likely give Brown some carries early. They do not draft guys high to let them sit. And if (read: when) Addai goes down, he could be a stud in that offense (assuming QB Peyton Manning trusts him in pass protection).

RB Shonn Green (NYJ): I am skeptical of this kid. He was a one-year wonder in college and has never really impressed me. He did put up some good numbers last year at Iowa, but I just do not see him replicating that in the NFL (this year, at least). He is a guy to keep an eye on, though, because he is a very physical runner and could do well in NY, since they love to run the ball. Plus, RB Thomas Jones is getting old and RB Leon Washington is not a full-time RB. But the QB situation does concern me. Neither QB Mark Sanchez nor QB Kellen Clemens are going to scare many teams into not playing 8 in the box.

WR Michael Crabtree (SF): Crabtree is a great talent. Do not let his foot injury (or the fact that his coach made him cry) concern you. You should, however, be concerned about the QB situation in SF. Because, honestly, they are terrible. The problem with WRs is that, no matter how talented they are, they need a QB to throw them the ball. However, Crabtree could be a poor QB’s best friend, since he has fantastic body control and catches the ball at its highest point. Plus, he immediately becomes the best receiving option on that team. But I am guessing someone in your fantasy league will over-value him.

WR Brian Robiske (CLE): I love this kid, even though he played for THE Ohio State University. He has exactly what you need to succeed as a rookie WR in the NFL — intelligence, good hands, and route-running skills. Plus, he is penciled in as the starter opposite WR Braylon Edwards. Obviously there are QB concerns. But he should put up solid numbers as a rookie.

WR Hakeem Nicks (NYG): I think Nicks will be buried on the NYG depth chart behind guys like WR Steve Smith, WR Dominic Hixon, and WR Mario Manningham. People love Nicks because of his behind-the-back catch in college last year. Unfortunately, circus catches like that are not what you need to do well as a rookie WR in the NFL. So look for Nicks to be worked in slowly by the Giants.

WR Kenny Britt (TEN): The Titans sound like they want to bring this kid along slowly. Which is somewhat surprising, given their lack of talent at WR. But, again, it is difficult for rookie WRs to do well in the NFL. And the Titans do not pass the ball often enough to make their second or third option at WR valuable for fantasy purposes.

WR Percy Harvin (MIN): He is a superb athlete. But a very marginal WR. And usually, rookie WRs who have success in the NFL are very polished. However, early rumors out of Minnesota are that they will use Harvin in a variety of ways to try and get him the ball. Either way, I expect him to struggle as a WR, making him a very risky prospect. My guess is someone in your league will over-value him.

WR Jeremy Maclin (PHI): Last year, we saw WR DeSean Jackson blow up as a rookie in Philly. Could it be Maclin’s turn this year? Other than Jackson, he really does not have much competition. WR Kevin Curtis is solid, but he is getting old and, well, he’s white (and not named WR Wes Welker). I think Philly will give Maclin his chances, but I do not expect him to do much. If your league gives points for return TDs, though, bump him up a little.

TE Jared Cook (TEN): Rookie TEs are tough. Especially thin ones with suspect blocking abilities on teams that love to run. However, Cook is a great receiver and could provide a nice red zone  target for QB Kerry Collins. Recall that last year, Collins and the Titans offense made TE Bo Scaife fantasy-relevant. Cook may be young and raw, but he is twice the (receiving) talent of Scaife.

TE Shawn Nelson (BUF): Nelson is very talented, but as with Cook, he has suspect blocking abilities. However, there is very little competition in Buffalo, so look for him to get plenty of chances. With WR Terrell Owens in town, and guys like WR Lee Evans, RB Marshawn Lynch, and RB Fred Jackson getting looks in the passing game, do not expect too much.